Wheat Surging in Sync with War (and Gold) Cycles; Early-March ’22 = Cycle Peak.
Outlook 2022/2023 – Cycle Culminations
01-29-22 – 2016 – 2021 was the culmination of the latest phase of multiple 40-Year Cycles – expected to time another multi-year advance in Gold as part of recurring Currency Wars – and ultimately give way to real War Cycles in 2021 – 2025.
The Currency Wars emerged right on schedule and Gold experienced the bull market that was forecast to last from late-2015 into late-2020/early-2021. In many ways, those types of financial and/or societal shifts and instability are often harbingers of more overt and geopolitical shifts & conflicts smoldering below the surface.
War Cycles… in China
Since the early-2010’s, INSIIDE Track has focused on 2021 to usher in many major shifts and represent a tumultuous period into (at least) 2025. That is the recurrence of an uncanny 80-Year War Cycle that has impacted America since its founding, Europe since (at least) 1301, AND also China.
Before reiterating the European/American cycles, a quick look at ‘recent’ events in China reinforces this cycle. In 1850 – 1864, China was devastated by the Taiping Rebellion – a massive civil war, considered the bloodiest civil war ever (~20 – 70 million deaths). It overlapped the Second Opium War in 1857-1860.
80 years later, in 1934 – 1945, China was rocked by the triple whammy of the Soviet Invasion, the 2nd Sino-Japan War, and the Chinese Civil War.
In between, at the 40-Year Cycle interval, the Boxer Rebellion (1899 – 1901) culminated a ~7-year period of conflict beginning with the First Sino-Japanese War in 1894 – 1895, followed by the Dungan Revolt and then the Japanese invasion of Taiwan.
80, 120 & 160 years later pinpoints 2019 – 2024 as the period with the greatest synergy of these overlapping War Cycles for China and parts of Asia.
War Cycles… in US & Europe
For the past 10 – 15 years, however, the primary focus of this ~80-Year Cycle of Wars has been the West… particularly America. That cycle has been forecast to usher in a new phase in 2021 – 2025 – the latest in the following sequence of major conflicts that impacted Europe, England, and then N. America:
1301 – 1302 – Byzantine raids with Ottomans attacking Nicaea; Battle of Bapheus (following founding of Ottoman Empire in 1299); Ottomans defeat the Byzantines – the Eastern Roman Empire – in the first major victory of what would be a ~600-year empire controlling Eastern Europe… a momentous shift.
1381 – Peasants’ Revolt in England – a battle against high taxes, serfdom, etc. … and a 400-year precursor to 1775 – 1781.
1461 – Battle of Towton (largest & bloodiest battle ever fought on English soil; ~28,000 died in a one-day battle; part of War of the Roses with three other major battles occurring in 1461.
1541 – Seige of Buda – led to 150 years of Ottoman control over Hungary (western extreme of Empire).
1621 – Final phase of Dutch Revolt (an ~80-year war triggered by over-taxation of Netherlands for ‘unnecessary wars’) began in 1621 after a 12-year truce. 1621 also marked the beginning of the end (1621–1629) of the religious wars throughout Europe.
[Overlapping these phases, there was the corresponding 80-Year War – from 1568 – 1648 – in which the Dutch gained independence from Spain… another powerful corroboration of this 80-Year Cycle of War.]
1701 – War of Spanish Succession (another battle for independence; a precursor to 80 years later).
1781 – 1783 – Culmination of America’s Revolutionary War (began in 1775/1776)
1861 – 1865 – Civil War in USA (triggered by conflicts in 1855 – 1856)
1941 – 1945 – US entry into WWII (in Europe since 1936 – 1938)
2021 – 2025 Next Major Conflict? Watch China, Russia AND Middle East.
The 80-Year Cycle of War timed the most noteworthy & destiny-altering revolts & battles of the last millennium – involving England, Europe & ultimately N. America. Will History Repeat? Stay tuned…
Soybeans, Corn & Wheat are rallying with Soybeans already retesting major upside objectives (~1,500/S) and Corn retesting its 2021 high (640/CH). Wheat is poised for a larger overall advance in 2022…
Wheat has begun to confirm a multi-week (and likely multi-month) low, surging after bottoming just above weekly 21 Low MARC and 21 Low MAC support in early-Jan. That should spur an overall advance into early-Mar ’22 – the next phase of a ~15-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
March ’22 is also the next phase of a ~4-month low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Wheat.
Wheat has monthly trend support near 720.0/WH and 3 – 6 month wave support near 690.0/WH. Those levels should hold if Wheat is to enter a new 3 – 6 month (or longer) advance in the first half of 2022.
On a broader basis, Corn has consolidated since surging into 2Q ’21 and setting its highest monthly close on June 30 ’21. That fulfilled 3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month analysis for an overall advance into July 2021 – the culmination/perpetuating of a 2-Year Cycle that already included 1 – 2 year (or longer) peaks in July ‘13, July ‘15, July ‘17 & July ‘19. A future peak is likely in June/July 2023.”
Stocks are validating analysis for a peak as Grain markets and Gold project contrasting surges. Wheat has been projected to experience a parabolic move higher in 2022 – with monthly & weekly cycles pinpointing early-March ’22 as the most likely time for a significant peak. This is occurring during the year (2022) when a 40-Year Cycle of Drought & 80-Year Cycle of Agriculture has been forecast to abruptly shift – the same time when parabolic moves are most likely (90/10 Rule of Cycles).
~11-Year, ~40-Year & ~80-Year Cycles collide in 2022 and pinpoint what could be a seismic shift in natural (climate, precipitation, etc.), geopolitical and market cycles at the same time food/commodity inflation cycles culminate. 2022/2023 is expected to produce major disruptions including climate shifts (Drought/Deluge Cycles) and solar storms.
On a 1 – 3 year basis, Corn has a 3-year low (July ‘07) – low (Jun ‘10) – high (July ‘13) – high (June ‘16) – high (May/Jun ‘19) – high (May/June 2022) Cycle Progression – projecting the next 1 – 2 year peak. Wheat has a ~6-year low (‘04) – low (‘10) – low (‘16) – high (2022) Cycle Progression that is reinforced by a ~33-month low (3Q ‘16) – low (2Q ‘19) – high (1Q 2022) Cycle Progression. Soybeans have an ~8-month Cycle Progression that portends the latest peak now – in ~Jan ’22.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.