War Cycles, September 2001
A 360-Year Cycle Shift (Sept 2001):
In the late-1990’s, in his INSIIDE Track newsletter and related Cycle of Time reports, Eric Hadik began to address the impending transition of a MAJOR 360-Year Cycle that had its roots in the Middle East and that was being projected to time – among other things – ‘a surprise attack on America’s shores’. He explained some of the seismic shifts he anticipated to take hold leading into and out of 2000/2001.
As he anticipated then, the first 30 years of the next 360-Year Cycle would mark dramatic events and changes as a larger-magnitude clock (of human history) went through its first ‘hour’ (1/12th of the 360-year cycle). [See related publications for his outlooks into other key time frames leading up to 2027 – 2029.]
As most of the world trained tunnel-visioned focus on the impending Y2K ‘crisis’, Eric repeatedly warned that anything occurring in 2000 would ‘pale by comparison’ to the shocks – particularly those of a geopolitical and/or military basis – expected in 2001. The first year of that new 360-year cycle was identified as Sept 2000 – Sept 2001 and was forecast to culminate with a ‘bang’… a battle or attack that was projected to occur in the period of Aug – Oct 2001. The cycles had spoken!
Throughout 1999 – 2001, Eric explained why his focus was on that brief window of time for a major war event, speculating that ‘a surprise attack on America’s shores’ was a likely possibility for Aug – Oct 2001 (later honed to Sept 2001 and ultimately to Sept 8 – 11, 2001). The financial markets almost always presage these types of events with related moves in correlated instruments (like precious metals and stocks – both known to reveal & reflect traders’ anxieties). They were doing just that!
Part of that analysis dovetailed with his forecast for gold to undergo 7-year and 12-year surges from a major bottom in 1999 – the completion of what he termed a Cycle of Time (a 19-year period that is comprised of a 7-year and 12-year cycle) from the major gold peak in 1980. At the time, he produced a series of reports titled ‘Cycle of Time’ – also focused on the same period of time that culminated in September 2001 and was expected to signal major changes.
It was the synergy of so many cycles, colliding at that same period of time, that intensified his focus. There was also the recurrence of an uncanny ~11-year cycle – closely related to the solar/sunspot cycle of the same duration – that had timed repeated battles, wars and/or surprise attacks (most of them Middle East related) and was targeting 3Q 2001 for a recurrence of the same.
In Dec 2000, he stated:
“The focus on 2001 corresponds with an 11+-year sunspot cycle that pinpointed Middle East wars in 1945, 1956, 1967, 1979, 1990 & converges in 2001. There still are many other cycles that corroborate this analysis and reinforce the conclusion that late-2001 will usher in a very dangerous short-term time frame (August – October), a very dangerous intermediate time frame (late-2001 into 2003), and a very dangerous longer-term period (2001–2008).”
…and…
“This also fits with a recurring cycle I described in the Cycle of Time Reports that links events in… the Middle East. It is a 28-year cycle… This cycle recurs in 2001 … as well as the 11-year (133-month… 19 x 7) cycle recently discussed (see November INSIIDE Track for discussion on this cycle returning in Sept. 2001)… As I stated in 1999 – when all eyes were focused on Y2K – I believed then and believe now that the real dramatic events will take place in the year 2001… not 2000.”
In retrospect, we now know that September 2001 was an extremely dangerous time frame in America (and did time new surprise attacks) and ushered in a tenuous time in ‘late-2001 into 2003’, when the US and allies invaded Iraq, and a broader time frame when the ‘war on terror’ consumed the headlines.
The Danger Zone
Prior to that Dec 2000 quote, Eric reiterated his emphasis on the ~11.2-year sunspot cycle and why it should culminate in September 2001, stating the following in the Nov. 2000 issue of INSIIDE Track:
“…Much has been made and discussed of the approximately 11-year sunspot cycle. I like this cycle since it fits with a key longer-term Cycle of Time cycle of 133 months (which equals 11 years and 1 month and also equals 7 x 19 months). It has pinpointed many critical wars in the recent history of the Middle East and their impact on America…
Beginning in 1945, it recurred in 1956 (second Arab/Israeli war), 1967 (6-day war with Egypt and Arabs), 1978/1979 (ascension of Saddam Hussein and Iranian hostage crisis), 1990 (Iraq invasion of Kuwait) and is back to haunt us from now until late-2001. Sunspots may have already peaked, but I am referring specifically to this 133-month cycle that has been so prevalent… and is likely to repeat in [Sept. 2001].”
INSIIDE Track, September 2001
Combining that ~11.2-Year Sunspot Cycle with his Cycle of Time analysis, he stated:
“133 months (7 x 19) from Iraq’s August 1990 invasion of Kuwait is September 2001!”
That was the precise time the much larger 360-Year Cycle (dating back thousands of years) would be entering its most dangerous period… the transition from one cycle to the next when a seismic shift was forecast. INSIIDE Track detailed why that transition period – from September 2000 into September 2001 – was likely to time black swan-like events that would shock the markets and the globe, reinforce a major decline in stocks, catapult gold, silver & crude oil (and key commodities) into multi-year advances as the US Dollar was projected to enter a multi-year decline.
The October 2000 INSIIDE Track explained:
9-29-00 – “As of September 30, 2000, a new 360-year cycle begins… The beginning of any new cycle is usually marked by change… And, this time it is poised to be more dramatic than ever… A 19-year Cycle of Time cycle in the stock market matures in 2001 (1982 was the last occurrence)… A recurring 7-year cycle in the stock market will also take hold in 2001 (dating back to 1959 & 1966 and consistently identifying critical tops and/or bottoms during EVERY occurrence since)…
A 19-year Cycle of Time cycle in Gold & Silver should begin to accelerate higher in 2001… Gold bottomed at the 19-year point (1980 high to 1999 low) and the period beginning in late-October has been forecast to see the second stage (‘3’ wave) of this bull market take hold…
This is also what could lead to a Dollar top… and the beginning of a bull market in Gold & commodities, partially linked to a declining Dollar… Is it coincidence this is being fulfilled at precisely the same time as a new 360-year cycle begins?”
INSIIDE Track, October 2000
All of this was being forecast when most investors were concluding just the opposite, based on then-current market action. But that was just the latest of his analyses, building on what had been discussed for over a year – since mid-1999. It is critical to understand that context to better comprehend how cycles (and Eric’s unique interpretation of them) were portending this dangerous period and event(s). In the Aug 1999 INSIIDE Track, two years before the anticipated fact, he concluded:
“This latest pronouncement…sets the stage for dramatic developments…a Middle East war seems likely in 2001.”
INSIIDE Track, August 1999
That set the stage! When addressing these war cycles colliding in late-2001, stock market cycles (which were portending a multi-year peak for early-2000), and Middle East cycles in Sept 2001, the Nov 1999 INSIIDE Track reiterated:
“All my long-term cycles still point to the year 2001 as being more significant than 2000…events in 2000 could pale by comparison to what will occur in 2001.”
INSIIDE Track, November 1999
A Market in Crisis: Stocks and Gold
Gold cycles were giving early-warning signs as a major multi-year/multi-decade bottom was forecast to take hold in 3Q 1999. Rallies in gold often precede geopolitical or military surprises, so this market was providing a key validating factor to the outlook for 3Q 2001. The October ’99 INSIIDE Track explained:
9-28-99 – Gold Rush – “The Cycle of Time is exerting its influence once again as a prolonged 19-year bear market in Gold may have just culminated. Since June, I have been reiterating the analysis that ‘declines could last into July or August’ and that market action could lead to ‘a final low between August 16th and the 27th when several weekly cycles converge’.
The low came on August 26th and Gold continued building a base into early September. Last month, I focused on cycles in early October – the significance of which was to be determined by whether Gold could close above its early month highs. On September 9th, it closed above these highs and triggered short-term traders (via the Weekly Re-Lay) to begin buying Gold (profit-stops were just triggered today at 296.5/GCZ).
The final trigger for Gold was an announcement that should have MAJOR ramifications over the next decade. 15 European countries vowed not to sell Gold for the next 5 years… So, what is a long-term trader or investor to think of these developments? One conclusion is that Gold will become much more in demand in the years to come…”
INSIIDE Track, October 1999 – Gold Rush
Gold was setting what was likely to be a multi-decade low at the culmination of a ~19-year decline. It was forecast to be a harbinger of global-altering events and to enter a multi-year & multi-decade bull market. A more comprehensive synopsis of this focus for a new Middle East-linked conflict in 3Q 2001 was included in the April 2000 INSIIDE Track and touched on why cyclesrelated to the world’s major religions were also warning of a major shift beginning in September 2001:
“The ensuing year of 5761 begins a new chapter in Middle East history…2001 also completes the 28- and 84-year cycles… There is also an intriguing religious (Christian & Jewish) cycle reaching fruition in September 2001 that I will discuss separately.
2001 is 60 years from the last giant surprise to hit America’s shores in Dec. 1941. 60 years is recognized by cyclists – including W.D. Gann – as a crucial ‘Grand Cycle’. Could another surprise occur in 2001?
…As for the stock market, there is a sequence of 19’s that is a harbinger of transition. The weeks of January 3rd to March 3rd were exactly 19 weeks from the prior correction and were forecast to usher in a new correction. What did the market do? It mirrored this decline, exactly 19 weeks later. 1982 was recognized as the final low of the old bear market. It occurred 9 1/2 years from the 1973 high (1/2 of a 19-year cycle). 2001 is 19 years from this last major low and is destined to provide a major turning point…will it peak in mid-2000 and then correct (for 19 months??) into 2001.
The first warning shot has been fired across the bow of the US economy and bull market. This does not mean they will immediately go sour. It does, however, reveal a weak point that will be attacked at a more vulnerable and opportune time. 2001 is the year to watch, but 2000 should have some dynamic moves – in both directions – as the first stages of a major transition take place.”
INSIIDE Track, April 2000
Most indexes plunged from mid-2000 into September 2001, fulfilling this analysis while acting as a powerful omen of what was soon to take place outside of those markets. (The DJTA – which has led a majority of major turning points over the past 2 – 3 decades – completed its bear market with a bottom in September 2001, the culmination of a ~29-month plunge from May 1999.)
Calm Before The Storm
Even as things seemed relatively calm, cycles were signaling something ominous on the horizon… and this was repeatedly published for readers to prepare. The July 2000 INSIIDE Trackheightened the warning about September 2001, even though few were listening:
“While all looks calm on the Middle Eastern Front, many signs point to a brewing storm that is likely to supersede anything seen in the last decade or two…”
INSIIDE Track, July 2000
This was all in the context of a major cyclic shift that was taking place in 2000/2001, with the first ‘year’ of that shift – from Sept 2000 into Sept 2001 – forecast to be tumultuous, culminating with a major attack in Sept 2001. Events in Sept & Oct 2000 (USS Cole bombing; a surprise attack on America’s sailors & interests) were projected to be omens of more significant events at the end of that period – in Sept & Oct 2001 – convincing evidence that ancient history was not so ancient and that this momentous 360-year cycle transition was about to reignite long-festering hostilities.
The November 2000 INSIIDE Track went even farther, warning:
“5761 – A New Cycle Begins:
10-30-00 – For months (actually years) I have been explaining why the transition period – of 360-year cycles ending & beginning on 9/30/00 – would usher in dramatic changes in the Middle East. The two months encompassing this turnover – September & October 2000 – have certainly given a small taste of things likely to come…
The US is targeting Osama Bin Laden for the USS Cole bombing. If there are going to be retaliatory measures taken, you can bet that careful investigation has gone into where to strike… Drastic times call for drastic measures. So, be on alert!…
In cycle analysis, one event stems from a preceding one and looks ahead to another… and so on and so on… the stock market tremors of October could be precursors to bigger investment quakes in January and/or April 2001 (900 moves in time). And, as just touched on, the Middle East events of the past month will certainly have an impact in the months to come.
So, drastic measures are very likely… And if you think that this is ancient history, you do not understand the Middle Eastern mindset that could hold this animosity for decades or centuries before revenge is ever taken. With the US economy & stock market hanging on by a thread, another spike in oil prices could… bring down the US economy and create chaos…
A Potential Scenario
Much has been made and discussed of the approximately 11-year sunspot cycle. I like this cycle since it fits with a key longer-term Cycle of Time cycle of 133 months (which equals 11 years and 1 month and also equals 7 x 19 months). It has pinpointed many critical wars in the recent history of the Middle East and their impact on America (resulting in Arab oil embargoes or at least higher oil prices and the like).
Beginning in 1945, it recurred in 1956 (second Arab/Israeli war), 1967 (6-day war with Egypt and Arabs), 1978/ 1979 (ascension of Saddam Hussein and Iranian hostage crisis), 1990 (Iraq invasion of Kuwait) and is back to haunt us from now until late-2001. Sunspots may have already peaked, but I am referring specifically to this 133-month cycle that has been so prevalent… and is likely to repeat in the coming year.”
INSIIDE Track, November 2000
As described back then, September 2001 would be exactly 133 months (~11-year cycle) from Saddam Hussein’s surprise attack on Kuwait in Aug 1990… and augured another surprise attack related to the Middle East. It was also 22 years (two ~11-year cycles) from the surprise attack on the US embassy in Iran – the onset of the Islamic Revolution.
How could these past events be connected to the probability and prediction for another surprise, Middle East-related attack in Sept 2001?
The Storm Approaches
As 2000 neared its end, Eric Hadik reiterated the connection between his outlook for a major sell-off in stocks (and ‘collapse’ in the Nasdaq-100) leading into September 2001, a major surge in gold, silver and crude oil, a major top in the US Dollar, and the likelihood for some sort of surprise attack or conflict to ‘hit America’s shores’ – related to the Middle East – in September 2001.
He explained why that anticipated event would have a dramatic impact on the philosophical and socio-geopolitical structure of the US, Middle East… and much of the world. The December 2000 INSIIDE Track concluded (9+ months in advance):
“11-30-00 – Stock Indices – Weekly trends remain down confirming that cycles point lower into January and potentially into September 2001. 11,750 remains as the fulfilled major upside target in DJIA with 9000-9380 as first MAJOR support. Investors should remain out of the stock market…
Gold & Silver – Long-term downtrends have been basing since mid-1999 and are expected to turn higher in 2001.
Dollar – Long & intermediate uptrends exiting a key alignment of cycles in late-October. Looking for confirmation of a top.
Crude Oil – Long & intermediate uptrends expected to consolidate/retrace before a new surge…
11-30-00 – The transition period – of 360-year cycles ending & beginning on 9/30/00 – ushered in more dramatic events in both the Middle East and in the US… This also fits with a recurring cycle I described in the Cycle of Time Reports…
And, the majority of 2001 is the first year in a new 360-year cycle… As I stated in 1999 – when all eyes were focused on Y2K – I believed then and believe now that the real dramatic events will take place in the year 2001… not 2000.
All of this forces me to address a powerful philosophy that has been employed by those building a ‘new world order’. It is known as Hegelianism or Hegelian Dialectic and describes the battle between an idea (thesis) and its opposite (antithesis) ultimately creating a new concept or idea (synthesis).
Often this is a natural occurrence but sometimes it is a manufactured one, where the thesis & antithesis (say capitalism and communism) are created as a diversion. While the two sides fight it out, no one notices the direction that both are heading.
This would be similar to two groups of rafters fighting over some extra coolers or life-jackets while both are approaching the peak of Niagara Falls. Once the inevitable is recognized, it is too late to do anything about it. The same appears to be true in global politics…
Considering that the stock market best reflects the uncertainty and the expectations of the political climate, I am devoting additional time & space to addressing its analysis in this issue. Every few months, it is important to review the 6-12 & 12-24 month outlook and discern at what point the market now stands. To accomplish this, it is important to review some prior analysis…
Stock Indices could decline into September 2001 if the October 18th lows are taken out in the coming months. This is due to several distinct combinations of cycles and would represent an even closer parallel to 1973–1974 when the market lost almost 50% in just under 2 years.
The Nasdaq 100 has already bested (or should I say ‘worsted’) its ‘73-’74 decline so there is already one parallel to that infamous period. It is spiking below intra-year support (2661 – 2775/ND) and is on the verge of attacking intermediate support at 2320 – 2375/NDZ. It must hold above this range to maintain any possibility for a decent rebound before a complete collapse. Cycles still portend a rebound into December 8 – 11th and then another sell-off…
Cycles, and the events associated with – or being measured by – them, rarely duplicate themselves. Instead, similar or correlated events often emerge at subsequent occurrences of related cycles. 1973 saw an unprecedented event as has/will 2000 – 2001…
A third parallel to the 1973-’74 period is the Middle East. In 1973, Israel was attacked on Yom Kippur and the Russian-backed Arab alliance set an oil embargo against the US for our support of Israel. Without any overt war, OPEC already has the US ‘over a barrel’ and is likely to continue to use this leverage… This, too, is similar to the last time around… while still being diverse enough to be disguised.
Suffice it to say there are some eerie parallels to 1973 – ‘74… and the stock market is reflecting this anxiety while also discounting more trouble on the horizon.” [Yom Kippur was on track to occur in September 2001, reinforcing this parallel regarding surprise attacks.]
INSIIDE Track, December 2000
September 2001’s cyclic connection to surprise attacks in the past (including Pearl Harbor and this Yom Kippur War) remained a topic of focus. Coinciding with that, INSIIDE Track was forecasting a major bull market to take hold in gold and silver from 2001 into 2006 and ultimately into 2011. In late-July 2001, the August 2001 INSIIDE Track updated
“Throughout this year, I have described why Gold & Silver should bottom this year and then see a strong surge in the end of 2001 and the beginning of 2002… In the last 100 years, Silver set 10 important (what would be termed ‘major’) lows. 4 of these lows (40%) occurred in the ‘01’ year of the respective decade. Another 3 of these lows (30%) occurred in the ‘02’ year of the respective decade. In other words, 70% of the major lows in Silver of the last century occurred in the ‘01’ or ‘02’ year of the decade (1902, 1921, 1932, 1941, 1971, 1982, & 1991). 2001 – 2002 fits within this ongoing sequence.
2001 is also both 30 & 60 Gann/geometric years from the 1941 & 1971 lows. It is a Cycle of Time 19 years from the 1982 low. Another important, longer-term cycle is now reaching fruition in Silver…
On a monthly basis, the month of August represents a 50% retracement in time from the 7-year/84 month rally between Feb. ’91 – Feb. ‘98. The 3.5 year/42-month drop from the February 1998 peak represents some well-documented (as well as Biblical) cycles of significance. So, between late-July & early-August, 2001, Silver will have entered the 540th week from its Feb. 1991 low and the 180th week from its Feb. 1998 peak. Silver also just completed the 90th week from its September 1999 secondary (‘B’ wave) peak, 135 weeks (3 x 45) from its December 1998 ‘A’ wave low and is at 210 weeks from its July 1997 low. So, there are strong decennial (‘01 or ‘02 year of each decade), yearly (30/60/19/7/3.5-years), monthly (84 & 42 months) & weekly arguments for Silver bottoming in late-July or early-August.
It is also interesting that the month of August is the perfect contrast (180 degrees on a calendar from the Feb. 1998 peak & Feb. 1991 low) for a low. Since this also coincides perfectly with analysis for a sharp Dollar decline – as well as with analysis for a 2-year bull market in Soybeans – the time is ripe for a sharp surge in Silver. Silver is still within striking distance of its major downside objective (411 – 415.0/SI), and the HLS of the current week coincides at 411.5/SIU.”
INSIIDE Track, August 2001
Even Soybeans were reflecting this looming disruption, projecting a ~2-year surge from what was its current low near 420.0/S. Silver did spike lower – and attack major support near 400 – 410.0/SI – in early-Aug 2001 and never gave a weekly or monthly close below that decisive support. Along with gold, it went on to surge into 2011 – when cycles projected a 5 – 10 year peak.
The Final Warning
The final warning was published in the September 8, 2001 Weekly Re-Lay, describing how all these cycles were aligning and how market action was corroborating this outlook and setting the stage for a surprise sell-off in stocks and the US Dollar – stating:
“…an eerie parallel to the intra-year action of the DJIA in 1987… these similarities should be monitored as we enter a historically dangerous time of year. With Gold & Silver signaling they could see a big surge in the 4th quarter, it would not be surprising to see a Dollar breakdown be the trigger.”
Weekly Re-Lay, September 8, 2001
The Result
A ‘surprise attack on America’s shores’ DID occur in September 2001, the stock market did plunge into September 2001 and set a major low, gold & silver DID begin multi-year bull markets that lasted into 2006 and ultimately 2011, Soybeans DID undergo a major rally, and the US Dollar did enter a ~7-year plunge into 2008. Are cycles really that revealing?