Will (Projected) Bitcoin Plunge Coincide with Bond Rally? Watch Late-February!
02/15/25 – “Bonds & Notes are showing signs of a secondary low and the onset of a new rally. The Dollar & cryptos are reinforcing multi-week highs as the Euro & Yen validate multi-week lows…
Bonds & Notes are tracing out what could be a 3 – 6 month bottom – expected to lead to a contrasting peak in June/July ‘25. They dropped sharply into the middle part of February after rebounding to multi-week upside targets, trend objectives & declining 21 Low MACs in early-Feb.
They are showing signs of a secondary low that came within days of a powerful convergence of weekly cycles on Feb 14 – 21st, tracing out a textbook daily 21 MAC reversal sequence as Notes dropped to within a few points of weekly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) and then triggered a weekly 2 Close Reversal higher.
That also (nearly) creates a weekly 2 Close Reversal Combo higher – a more convincing version of that signal that follows a test of the weekly HLS. It initially validates the outlook for Bonds & Notes to enter a new rally beginning in the second half of February and extending into March and ultimately (at least) June ’25.
It also comes after Bonds & Notes retraced into the midpoint of a ~2-month high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression that timed the Jan 13/14th low. The next phase of that ~58-day cycle is around March 13 with the midpoint on Feb 12th – when another multi-week low was expected.
That is precisely when Bonds & Notes bottomed and then quickly reversed higher. That could spur a rally into March 13/14th – a 50% rebound in time (119-120 days down/59-60 days up).
On a broader basis, Bonds & Notes have neutralized their weekly downtrends multiple times and need weekly closes above 117-01/ USH & 110-00/TYH to turn those trends up. If that occurs, it would also have them closing above their declining weekly 21 Low MACs – the start of a 21 MAC (bullish) reversal sequence.
SOFRs fulfilled the outlook for a drop to new lows leading into mid-February – bottoming in the middle of a 38 – 42-week/8.5 – 9.5-month low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression while matching the duration of their previous (April – Sept ’24) rally… 20 – 21 weeks up and 20 – 21 weeks down. That could spur a new advance lasting – on balance – into ~May 27 – 30th, the next phase of a ~36-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression…
The Dollar Index likely set a secondary top after surging to its weekly LHR (weekly extreme upside target at 109.78/DXH) and monthly SPR (109.83/DXH) to begin the month and reversing lower. After a quick plunge, it bounced into Feb 12th and right to its declining daily 21 High MAC before resuming its decline.
That quickly led to a daily close below 107.15/DXH – the signal needed to turn the new intra-month trend down and confirm a new multi-week top. The Dollar Index has already fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for a multi-month (6 – 12 month) low in late-September/early-October ‘24 followed by a rally into mid-January 2025.
It needs to turn its weekly trend down – with a weekly close below 106.44/DXH – to confirm that a multi-month top is in place.
The Euro is the inverse and rallied after testing its January low (in early-Feb) – turning its intra-month trend up while signaling a bullish daily 21 MAC sequence. That reinforces analysis for a Jan/Feb ’25 low – fulfilling a 28 – 29-month cycle.
A weekly close above 1.0557/ECH is needed to turn the weekly trend up and project an overall advance into April ’25 – the next phase of a ~34-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a .618 rally in time.
The Yen remains in positive territory with an increasing probability for a larger surge – likely reaching .6950 – .6980/JYH – in the month of February. A weekly close above .6652/JYH is needed to turn the weekly trend up and confirm.
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping after Bitcoin set its highest daily close on January 21st – 6 months/180 degrees from a previous high daily close (July 22nd) – ushering in the potential for a larger-magnitude wave ‘5’ peak as it fulfilled a ~43 – 46-week low-high-high-(high; Jan 3 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression.
A drop into late-February/early-March remains the primary objective for this decline.”
Bitcoin is poised for a sharp, late-February plunge in sync with the daily 21 MAC/21 MARC indicators that pinpoint a very vulnerable period in the coming weeks. At the same time, interest rates are signaling a peak as Bonds prepare for a larger rally. Is there a connection?
Bitcoin’s January high was a textbook (weak) wave 5 of V top that was set in perfect sync with MAJOR upside price targets as well as annual cycles. That projected/projects an overall decline into late-Feb/early-March ’25 as the first phase of a major shift. Could Bonds rally as Bitcoin plunges?
Ether (and other cryptos) peaked in December ’24 and projected a sharp, multi-week drop to 2,200/ETH or lower… that should ultimately stretch into early-March ’25 (with an initial low forecast for early-February ’25). It attacked that downside price target in early-February – when a 1 – 2 week low was most likely – so some consolidation was expected before a late-February sell-off.
On a broader basis, Bitcoin is capable of plunging back to 72,000 – 74,500/BT and stretching an overall multi-month decline into [see publications for details].
Multi-month cycles bottom in [reserved for subscribers].
What Does Bitcoin’s Wave 5 of V Peak Mean for 1Q 2025?
What Does Bitcoin’s Wave V Peak Mean for 2025?
How Would Late-February Sell-off Corroborate That?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.