XAU Diverging from HUI (Gold Bugs Index)
XAU Diverging from HUI (Gold Bugs Index);
Corroborating Weekly HLS Test & Imminent Low…
New Surge Poised to Take Hold.
12/12/17 INSIIDE Track Intra-month Update:
“Gold & Silver have continued to decline after rebounding into Nov. 17 & setting intermediate highs while perpetuating a 21-day low-low-(high) Cycle Progression… & delays the onset of an expected new advance. It also turns focus to the second most likely time for a successive low – in the first half of Dec. A low by/in mid-Dec. would come at roughly the same time of year that Gold bottomed in 2015 & 2016 – the perpetuation of an annual/360-degree cycle.
A couple indicators are corroborating that potential. One is/are the weekly trend patterns, which often witness a spike low & subsequent multi-week bounce shortly after reversing down. A second is the weekly HLS. Silver hit & held this level on Dec. 1 and Gold did the same on Dec. 8. Both of those tests project an ensuing 1 – 2 month low in the following weeks.
As for the bigger picture outlook, Gold & Silver remain in their monthly uptrends. At least in Gold, the mid-2017 low is still expected to hold and yield a new rally above the Sept. highs. The timing for that advance [reserved for subscribers]…
The XAU fulfilled its daily trend pattern by spiking to new lows and has just fulfilled its 2 – 3 month outlook. It spiked below its weekly 21 Low MARC (76.77/XAU) – maintaining its declining weekly 21 MAC – and made it down to its weekly HLS at 75.77/XAU.
That action – reaching its intra-week extreme downside target – increases the likelihood for a low in December. A multi-month low is still also cyclically likely in Dec. 2017 – the latest phase of an 11 – 12 month low-low-low Cycle Progression. By spiking below its early-July low, the XAU has also fulfilled the potential for an overall decline from its early-Feb. intra-year peak.
A low on Dec. 4 – 15 would create a 21 – 22 week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression originating from the early-Feb. intra-year peak. Today’s action – with the HUI (and GDX) spiking to a new low as the XAU held above its recent low – could be the kind of divergence that precedes a 1 – 2 week rebound.”
XAU has fulfilled 6 – 12 month analysis (stemming from projected peak in early-Feb. 2017), 1 – 3 & 3 – 6 month analysis (stemming from early-July low & early-Sept. peak) & 2 – 4 week outlook – all converging with daily, weekly & monthly cycles surrounding Dec. 8.
By spiking to new lows, the XAU has completed almost all of what was projected for 2017. Also, by testing (AND holding) its weekly HLS last week (75.77/XAU), the XAU has greatly increased the potential for a 1 – 2 month bottom in this time frame (after Dec. 4, before Dec. 15 & ideally right around Dec. 8).
Intra-week set-up, daily reversal pattern & bullish divergence from HUI & GDX GDX trigger near-term buy signal & project quick 1 – 2 week rebound (that could be first phase of much larger advance). Gold & Silver remain in positive wave structures and are on track for a new multi-month bottom before mid-Dec.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.