2014–2018 = Tumultuous Period
05/29/14 INSIIDE Track: “While much of my time and focus remains on the uncanny convergence of 40-Year Cycles in 2014–2016, there is another cycle that is periodically addressed when discussing generational cycles: The 70-Year Cycle. (There is also a 60-Year Cycle that warrants similar attention… just not at the moment.)
This month, I am choosing to segue into the 70-Year Cycle in order to look a little farther out – to major geopolitical cycles that have been identified for 2018–2021 – and then to work backwards. Once that time period is a little better understood, it might provide a couple of potential scenarios for 2014–2016.
One primary conclusion drawn – with regard to 2018–2021 – is that cycles of Arab Unity and of European Unity reach fruition. I have discussed both at length – and will update & elaborate on them in the coming months – but just want to ’broad-stroke’ this topic right now.
For now, let’s review a few of the momentous cycles coming into play at that time – particularly in 2018. Two Major cycles reach fruition during the same 7-day period in 2018.
In order to recognize their significance, let’s go back to May 1948…
On May 14, 1948, Israel declared her independence and the modern-day nation of Israel was born. When you consider all that has transpired the past 65+ years, it is hard to ignore or to underestimate the impact of these two events in May 1948.
Is it somehow prophetic that King David stated – over 3,000 years ago – that “Our days may come to seventy years, or eighty, if our strength endures…”(Psalm 90:10). While he was referring to the average life of a human, there are multiple applications of a cycle observation like this.
In fact, if you simply combine David’s conclusion with Isaiah’s cyclic observation that 70 years is ‘the span of a king’s life’, you begin to see the connection between this cycle and an important national or governing cycle.
When YHWH needed to punish the Israelites – and give the land of Israel the ‘Sabbath rest’ that He had commanded centuries earlier – He sent them into exile in Babylon… for 70 years. This was corroborated by the writers of Chronicles, Jeremiah & Daniel… so it must have been important.
(And for those that want to separate the God of the Bible from proper care and stewardship of the Earth & environment, you might want to ask the ancient Israelites what happened when they repeatedly abused the land!)
The point is that this 70-Year Cycle governs man… and man’s government.
And, since man’s government is dramatically impacted by economics (including in ancient Israel – an agrarian society whose exile from the land and the ability to farm it was the ultimate economic collapse), the 70-Year Cycle impacts ’kings’ on many levels.
In 1999, I wrote some articles detailing the 70-year connection between the 1929–1932 Stock Market collapse and an expected 2000–2002 bear market. Stock Indices did not disappoint and experienced their sharpest decline in decades, with the Nasdaq 100 crashing similarly to the 1929 crash.
Not surprisingly, the 1929 market peak & crash came exactly 70 years after the 1859 economic trough that followed the Panic of 1857 – often recognized as the first global financial crisis.
(When you consider that the Constitution and election of the 1st US President occurred 70 years earlier – in 1789 – it could be argued that a 70-Year Cyclehas dramatically impacted the U.S. during its limited life-span – very precisely timing the ebb & flow of 3 of its biggest economic crashes… and all the political ramifications of them.) Back to our focus…
2017/2018 Unity Cycles
2017–2018 is the culmination of 70-Year Cycles from these two major events in 1948. One has attempted to unify Europeans for 65+ years. And one has attempted to unify Jews for 65+ years. But that is not all…
1948 also market the establishment of the World Council of Churches – an institution that has been working for 65+ years to unify Christianity and religion as a whole. The WCC will complete its debut 70-Year Cycle in 2018.
But what about the rest of humanity… those that aren’t European, Jewish, Western, Communist or religious? What unifies them? I am glad you asked. It is the same thing that has expedited – or even made possible – each of the other unifications, from 1948… Computers & technology.
And, to when/where can we trace the origin of computers?
So, for almost 70 years most of the planet has been hurtling forward to various forms of unity – that are likely to BEGIN reaching fruition in 2017/2018.
Note: Most of the 1948 events and even some precursor events in late-1947 all occurred in the same Jewish Year of 5708. As a result, I am watching the Jewish Year of 5778 – from Sept. 21, 2017 to Sept. 10, 2018 – as closely as I am watching the Gregorian Year of 2018.
Late-2017/5778 is also the 100-year anniversary of the liberation of Jerusalem – in Dec. 1917 – and the 500-year anniversary of the Ottoman conquering of Jerusalem in 1517, increasing the synergy of cycles pertaining to Israel & Middle East.
And, in perfect synchronicity with what was described last month, 2018 is also a precise 40-Year Cycle of ‘testing’, of ‘preparation’ and of ‘peace’ from the Camp David Accords of Sept. 17, 1978. They occurred during the Jewish Year of 5738, so 5778 is also a 40-Year Cycle on the Jewish Calendar.
Undoing Before Unity
So, what do all these geopolitical and unification cycles have to do with the markets and with what is expected in 2014–2016?
That has to do with what usually precedes unification. It is very rare that humans just voluntarily unite with one another when no threat or vulnerability is perceived. When life is good and things are going smooth, we tend to be more independent. Unification usually means compromise, so who dashes right for that choice.
If 2017/2018 is going to be the culmination of one momentous 70-Year Cycle – and 2018–2021 is going to be the onset of another – it means the next few years could be tumultuous. And one of those potentially-precarious areas is still expected to be Europe. As stated many times before, I believe the Euro has another crisis and another sharp drop in the coming years… before real unity becomes plausible.
And this could have far-reaching implications – for Gold, global equities, the Dollar, etc…
The Dollar Index fulfilled analysis for another wave down into May 2014. In the process, it also fulfilled price expectations for a spike below 79.00/DX – a level of vital support that represents a 50% correction of the ~73.00–85.00/DX advance.
There are several longer-term cycles that portend an important bottom in May 2014. These cycles include a ~3-year high-low-(low) and a ~5-year high-high-(low) Cycle Progression, a ~6-year high-low-(low) Cycle Progression & a 16-19 month low-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
A May 2014 bottom – 19 months from its previous low – is the exact mid-point of the Dollar’s most common cycle – a 38-month cycle. A rally into 2015 is possible.
The Euro bumped right up against multi-year resistance – at ~1.4000/EC – and reversed lower. As conveyed in recent months, a top in May 2014perpetuates a ~3-year/36-month high-high-(high) Cycle Progression, linking highs in April 2008, April/May 2011 & May 2014.
And, a top on May 5–9, 2014 – when it was projected – would complete a 180-degree advance from the Nov. 8th low and a 90-degree advance from the Feb. 6th low (resulting in a 3-month/~90-degree low-low-(high) Cycle Progression)… as well as several other cycles and wave relationships.
It topped on May 8, 2014 – at 1.3993/ECM!
The Euro has already reversed its weekly trend to down, giving the first important validation to this cycle. It could see a sharp drop into July as the first phase of a potential 1-2 year bear market. And, as long as it does not exceed 1.4000/EC during the rest of 2014, the Euro could ultimately drop to ~1.1000/EC… potentially by late-2015 or early-2016.
The Yen is still capable of confirming a multi-month bottom as the culmination of its ‘5th’ wave decline. It remains in consolidation with some underlying support from its intra-year & weekly uptrend. However, it still needs a weekly close above .9889/JYM to signal the onset of a new advance.
The weekly trend & intra-year trend remain up. With the addition of the weekly 21 MAC turning back up, this could – as discussed last month – ultimately spur a rally back above 1.0300/JY… and potentially as high as 1.0600/JY in 2014.
The British Pound remains in a weekly, monthly & intra-year uptrend – but just peaked during a decisive convergence of cycles in May 2014 – linked to recent highs in May 2011 & May 2012.
The Pound exceeded key resistance and has remained in a weekly uptrend so additional upside is possible. This will remain the case until/unless it gives a weekly close below 1.6650/BP. Since mid-Nov. 2012, the Pound has maintained a consistent, 4-month (17-18 week) low-low-low-low-low CycleProgression that next comes into play in July 2014 – when a final top is possible (360 degrees from its July ‘13 low).”