40-Year Cycle in Gold, Silver & Stocks
12/03/14 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: “Gold Confirming Nov. 3–7th Cycle Low; Stock Indices are vacillating near their highs as they fulfill multi-month, multi-year & multi-decade cycles that have projected a culminating surge into 4Q 2014 with a peak that was expected along with the greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles – in Nov. 2014.
So far, most of the Indices are holding (slightly) below their November peaks, leaving that cycle intact. However, a spike high in December would not violate any of the longer-term cycles and could even provide an exact fulfillment of the 40-Year Cycle (if a peak is set on Dec. 5th or 8th, exactly 40 years from the Dec. 6, 1974 bottom).
The Indices have fulfilled what has been discussed since early-2013 – for an overall advance into 4Q 2014 and ideally into November 2014 – so now it is time to begin looking for any signs of a larger-degree top/reversal in the making (even though that process is likely to stretch into early-2015).
As discussed this past weekend, last week saw some renewed divergence with the Nasdaq 100 rallying into week’s end as the Russell 2000 & NYSE sold off. That initially fulfilled – in those Indices – a 6-week high (July 24th)–high (Sept. 3rd/4th)–low (Oct. 15/16)–high (Nov. 24–28th) Cycle Sequence.
The Russell 2000 – with its Nov. 25th peak and daily trend signal – fulfilled multiple daily & weekly cycles including a precise 21-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression, spanning the most significant peaks of 2014. They created a 147-day low (Feb. 5, 2014)–high (July 1, 2014)–high (Nov. 25, 2014) Cycle Progression. That ~21-week cycle dates back to June 2012 and was elaborated in the December 2014 INSIIDE Track.
Just as significant, it projects future focus to a seminal period in time – that already is warranting close scrutiny. 21 weeks from the Nov. 25, 2014 high is the week of April 20–24, 2015 (incorporating the April 19th Date of Infamy on that Sunday).
If expanded to the 20–22 weeks that have governed the Russell 2000 for two years, it would also include the week of April 13–17th – discussed in previous analysis. That analysis included the cycles that were projecting a sharp drop into – and multi-month low in – mid-October.
April 2015 is also the next phase of the corresponding, 42-43 week low (Nov ‘12)–low (Sept. ‘13)–high (July ‘14) Cycle Progression…
What would it take to validate this potential… and to give the first sign of a developing top? [See 12/03/14 Alert for answers.]
…Gold & Silver are continuing to validate intermediate cycles that bottomed on Nov. 3–7th with Gold reaching the lower end of its primary, 3–5 year downside target (1127.0–1132.0/GC).
That low created a ~4-month high-high-(low) Cycle Progression and a 22-week low-low-(low) Cycle Progression, setting the stage for an intermediate rally. Gold & Silver then rebounded and fulfilled 2-4 week objectives in late-November – while mimicking the October rally – before spiking lower on the ‘no vote’ in the Swiss gold referendum.
That was expected to be a short-lived spike down and those metals were projected to bottom on Dec. 1st or 2nd. That took place with Silver finally reaching its corresponding 3–5 year downside target (14.540–14.650/SI) while Gold held above its Nov. 7th low.
Based on the daily trend pattern, daily 21 MARCs & short-term cycles, Dec. 1–4th was shaping up as a bullish period – which has now played out…”
See complete Dec. 3, 2014 Weekly Re-Lay Alert for all related details, analysis and/or trading strategies. Gold & Silver validating potential for multi-month advance while Stock Indices prepare for multi-month decline. Watch mid-Jan. & mid-April 2015!