Climate Cycles Converge in late-2010’s
11/27/15 INSIIDE Track: Outlook 2015–2017
40-Year Cycle & Food Crises IV
11, 17, 22, 40, 100 & 200 -Year Cycles Colliding in late-2010’s
I receive many inquiries regarding my outlook for climate change (usually directing me to analysis predicting an imminent Ice Age or the burning up of the planet) as well as corresponding analysis on solar cycles, earthquake & volcano cycles and commodity (food crisis) cycles.
Since no single inquiry addresses all of these issues, I am using an amalgamation of them for the following Q & A, similar to the first ‘When Cycles Collide’ article of Nov. 2014 (relating to stock cycles). I anticipate using this as a springboard to further – and more in-depth – discussions on these topics. Similar to the Nov. ‘14 discussion, this is simply intended as a general roadmap, with the specific ‘directions’ and ‘mileage’ to be added later…
A: Admittedly, I used the extreme versions of those questions (a bit of hyperbole)… but hope you get the point. I am choosing to answer these combined inquiries in a sequence beginning with the broad and more general response… and then progressing to more concise & specific details. So, for starters:
As I have stressed repeatedly over the past couple decades, I view myself – and try to convey my analysis accordingly – as an ‘Aware-ist’… NOT an ALARMIST(!!!). So, while I am convinced that several cycles are entering a period of increasing intensity, I try not to convey apocalyptic intonations. It seems as though every time I am directed to a corresponding article or site, it has all the earmarks of a ’world is ending next year/buy gold with reckless abandon/Dollar is crashing in 2015/stock market collapse’ tone to it.
Yes, there are times when I use terms like ’Crash Cycles’ – for 2015/2016 – and then distinguish that as a 35–50% decline in equity prices (much like 2000–2002 & 2007–2009)… to prevent misinterpretation.
While that would certainly be a(nother) serious economic challenge, it does not assume the end of western civilization as we know it. Many events – if you read about them in advance – would sound apocalyptic… and probably seem that way to those directly involved. But, from a global perspective, they are just big challenges… not a collapse.
A prime example was when earth disturbance cycles projected Major earthquakes for Chile in 2010, Japan in 2011 & North America for 2012 (see Earth In Transition: 3+3 Reports at http://www.insiidetrack.com/pdf/INSIIDETrackSR200912ET3+3IIem.pdf).
At the time, the discussion frequently cited the potential for a nuclear ‘incident’, similar to – but worse than – what had recently been seen in Japan. One quote – from 1/29/10 – explained these massive earthquake cycles and stated: “2010 could/should see some major activity but 2011 is expected to foreshadow whatever occurs in 2010.”
That was written as the world was reeling from the Jan. 2010 Haiti earthquake and in the context of expecting a worse earthquake in Chile soon after… and then in Japan between late-2010 and early-2012 (later narrowed down to early-2011). The potential ramifications – if those cycles were accurate – was startling! In many respects, that could sound apocalyptic… but on a regional basis (not to diminish the tragedy of them).
Chile was rocked by one of the five strongest earthquakes in recorded history – in Feb. 2010 – and Japan was devastated by a massive quake and nuclear incident in March 2011.
However, that didn’t drive civilization into caves and off the grid. While it may seem like I am belaboring this point – which I am – it is for good reason… to place these expectations (in this case, for an impending food crisis) in the proper perspective. For example…
Throughout the last few years, I detailed expectations for livestock to see a bubble-and-crash scenario – its own form of ‘food crisis’ – leading into and out of late-2014.
Diverse factors (including an ongoing drought in CA) culled the herds & drove Cattle & Hogs to unprecedented levels into late-2014, from which they have since crashed. In the past 15–16 months, Hogs have lost over 60% of their peak value while retracing over 70% of a 15-year advance. That is a SERIOUS crash! But, it does not signal the end of pork production, as we know it.
In fact, other than the exorbitant price of steak in recent years, one might not have even recognized the extremes to which livestock prices had risen into 2014… or the extent to which they have fallen since then. It has been a crisis, not a collapse. Please forgive my belaboring this point, but I need to lay an accurate foundation if this analysis is to be understood and perceived in the appropriate context.
To get the ball rolling, let me give a brief overview of what I expect in the coming years. This outlook touches on each of the topics cited in the title on page 4 and is a very general description of what I could see unfolding…
— First, with respect to climate, I anticipate a similar scenario (of contrasts) to that described in Nov. 2014 regarding the stock market partially fulfilling multiple (seemingly contradictory) expectations. That provided significantly-distinct perceptions, depending on the context & vantage-point from which one is viewing them.
Simply put, I could see global temperatures – or at least some measure of them – extending their warming trend a bit more as we move toward 2019/2020. There are multiple reasons for that (most will be elaborated later). Among them are long-term cycles of warming & cooling – cycles that range from 22–25 years (partially linked to sunspot cycles) up to 100–200 years, as well as ~500 & ~1,000-year cycles of climate vacillation.
If there is one thing that is constant through all those cycles – it is change.
In fact, change is the only constant in the ongoing oscillation of global temperatures. What else would have been expected – after a couple hundred years of warming surrounding 1000 AD and 400–500 years of dramatic cooling in the middle of the last millennium (Little Ice Age from ~1300–1850, with coldest period centered around 1600’s) – other than 100–200 years of warming, beginning around 1850?! And that is exactly what has occurred.
In addition, on a more regular-based cycle, I would not be surprised to see another ‘post-El Nino’ warming spike in 2016 – a bit like what was seen in the late-1990’s and the early-1980’s (a 17-Year Cycle). That could help spur a final ‘rally’ in global warming – into the late-2010’s – after 1–2 decades of stagnating temps since the late-1990’s.
That would also be in synch with the 40-Year Cycle & 80-Year Cycles of the past few centuries (including warm-ups in 1850’s – coming out of Little Ice Age – and in the 1890’s, 1930’s & 1970’s, following a 40-Year period of generally cooling temps from the peaks of the late-1930’s) – both of which portend either a culminating warm-up in the second half of the 2010’s and/or a multi-decade warming peak near 2019/2020.
The past 160 years were preceded by the late-1810’s and the end of the Dalton Minimum (1820) – a low-point in global temps – and the late-1770’s, another cooling phase w/anecdotal evidence like New York Harbor freezing in 1780 – allowing people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island.
The 1850’s was the transition point when a 40-Year Cycle Progression shifted from low-low-low to the subsequent high (late-1890’s)–high (late-1930’s)–high (late-1970’s)–high (late-2010’s)… a textbook, 40-Year low-low-low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – targeted for ~2019/2020. After that, however, I expect a phase of cooling (1-2 decades??) that could surprise the ‘warmers’.
2019 is also a convergence of sunspot & solar storm cycles (including 30 years from the 1989 event and 160 years – 4 of the 40-Year Cycles – from the 1859 Carrington Event).
And, 2019 is the next phase of a 68-Year Cycle (4 – 17-Year Cycles, 3 – ~22.5 Year Solar Polar Cycles & 6 – ~11.2 Year Sunspot Cycles) that precisely links 3 of the most powerful volcanoes of the past 200 years – each of which was in or adjacent to Indonesia (Tambora in 1815 to Krakatoa in 1883 to Lamington in 1951… to Indonesia? in 2019). That does NOT diminish the potential for escalating eruptions in 2016–2019… much like the precursor eruptions of the 1810’s (before Tambora erupted).
From a market perspective, diverse indicators & cycles argue for commodities (& metals) to see an initial surge in 2016 with another surge into 2019–2021. That ties into analysis for 2016 to be The Golden Year – the first phase of a bull market in Gold & Silver.”
Food Crisis Cycles dovetail with Climate Cycles & portend intensifying challenges in 2016–2021. As repeatedly discussed, 2016/2017 is expected to see a sudden concern with major flooding in key crop growing regions (i.e. South America, California, etc.) even as temperatures are likely to enter another upswing that could stretch into 2019–2021. An uncanny 40-Year Cycle Progression – of temperature & climate swings – pegged related peaks in the 1890’s, 1930’s & 1970’s and is poised to time another in the late-2010’s.
El Nino is likely to provide the initial trigger buy sunspot cycles, volcano cycles and related factors could increase the synergy of these stressors and ultimately create a ‘Perfect Storm’ of crop & climate challenges – leading into the end of this decade. See INSIIDE Track & Weekly Re-Lay for related analysis in diverse commodities.