Dollar Revolution: Gold II
10/06/14 Dollar Revolution: Gold II: “Gold & Silver Resume Declines
Platinum & Palladium Joining In; Next Stop: June/July ‘15 Cycle Low
“Following up on that previous Report, Gold & Silver DID drop into 4Q 2013 and DID set 6-12 month lows at that time BUT did NOT reach their downside objectives at 1127–1159/GC & 14.54–14.65/SI. And they did rebound into 3Q 2014, after which a new decline – to new lows – was/is projected.
The next 6-12 month or longer (it is actually considered a 3-5 year) cycle low comes into play in June/July 2015 and is still expected to time a more significant and longer-lasting bottom. In the interim, there are multi-month cycle lows expected in Nov. ’14 & March ’15.
If Gold & Silver reach their downside objectives during either of those cycles, it would increase the likelihood that Gold would ultimately make it down to 1033–1045.0/GC before a Major bottom is likely. (Important support comes into play above that level & is discussed separately.)
All of this looks ahead to 2016 – The Golden Year – when the uncanny 40-Year Cycle portends a dramatic shift in the Gold/Dollar relationship. That is discussed in the related 2016 – The Golden Year Report…
…July 2015 – when a unique convergence of yearly & monthly cycles converge, particularly in Silver. The latest decline was expected to take hold in 3Q ‘14 – which appears to have occurred – and last into mid-2015, when a far more important bottom is more likely. Copper is reinforcing that and expected to drop to multi-year support…
P.I.T. (Period of Inflationary Testing)
1973–1976 – when first Saudi Arabia and eventually all of OPEC – agreed to price oil in Dollars (and when the Dollar was ultimately de-linked from Gold via the Jamaica Accord) – ushered in an inflationary bonanza for the US Dollar (as the result of its reserve currency status). From that point forward, America was able to print Dollars with reckless abandon and frequently inflate its way out of debt… at least to a certain degree.
Of course, as has been the case for millennia, this was also clearly – particularly in retrospect – the onset of a ubiquitous, 40-year period of testing. Although I don’t want to belabor this point, since it has been discussed so frequently, it is important to review it:
A 40-Year Cycle has been – for almost all of recorded human history – a decisive period of time that ushers in MAJOR changes. It is a period of preparation or ’testing’ prior to those changes and is repeatedly documented in the ancient history of the Middle East, as detailed in the Bible and other ancient writings..
Palladium is another metal that should be examined as it is in the midst of the time frame (July/August 2014) when an important peak is likely.
A high in August 2014 would perpetuate a 68-month low (April 2003)–low (Dec. 2008)–high (Aug. 2014) Cycle Progression AND a 34-month low (Dec. 2008)–low (Oct. 2011)–high (August 2014) Cycle Progression AND a 17-month low (Oct. 2011)–high (March 2013)–high (August 2014) Cycle Progression… as well as a ~3-year low (Dec 2008)–low (Oct. 2011)–high (August 2014) Cycle Progression.
A Major LLH objective comes into play at 910.0/PA (160–535–910/PA), very close to the 2013 LHR of 915.0/PA. Palladium has nearly reached this price target as it perpetuates a 10-11 year low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression in 2014…
The more recent – and more applicable – phases of this cycle create an 11-year low (1992)-low (2003)-(high) Cycle Progression projecting a major top in 2014. That 11-Year Cycle is roughly double the 68-month cycle (which is double the 34-month, which is double the 17-month cycle)…
Gold & Silver – after turning back down a month early (but still within the projected 3Q 2014 cycle reversal) have signaled the onset of the next phase of their multi-year bear market. Both metals confirmed that on Sept. 2nd – breaking below key support levels and turning various trends down…
More important is what this action reinforces for the next 6–12 months… into 2015 when diverse yearly and monthly cycles converge.
For starters, there is an uncanny 11-year cycle (sunspot related??) between Major lows in Silver. That creates a sequence between the 1971 low–1982 low (88% drop)–1993 low (77% drop)–2004 low (35% drop)–potential 2015 low (already dropped 66%).
A 70% drop (2xs 1993–2004 % decline and .786 x 1971–1982 % decline) would have Silver spiking below 15.000/SI as part of this bear market.
Then there is an overlapping 7-year cycle high (1973)–high (1980)–high (1987)–low (1994 was cycle low but price low came in 1993)–low (2001)–low (2008)–low (2015) CycleProgression.
The Feb. 2014 high in Silver perpetuated its ~16-month cycle reinforced the potential for an overall drop into 2015. That perpetuates a 15-17 month high (May ‘11)–high (Sept/Oct. ‘12)–high (Feb./Mar. 2014)– (low in June/July 2015?) Cycle Progression. ..
The initial Silver decline into June 2013 created a corroborating high-low-(low) Cycle Progression. (May 2011 high – June 2013 low – July 2015 low)…
Platinum also turned down a month earlier than expected and quickly reversed its weekly trend down. It remains in a weekly & intra-year downtrend and also broke below critical support at its Dec. 2013 low – confirming (like Silver) a new wave down… that should extend into 4Q 2015 – perpetuating a 7-year low-low-(low) Cycle Progression…
All of this analysis concludes the same thing: Another inflationary high – in an ongoing sequence of highs – took place in 3Q 2014.
With Platinum & Palladium – as well as Cattle & Hogs – now projecting a new decline into (at least) mid-2015, it reinforces Gold & Silver cycles that project an intervening (lower) high in 3Q 2014 and then another decline into July 2015. If the perception of the wave structure (Gold & Silver) is accurate, that could create multiple surprises for traders in 3Q 2015–3Q 2016!”
Gold & Silver projecting continued downside into June/July 2015… with Platinum, Palladium, Copper, Cattle & Hogs now joining the deflationary parade. There are multiple downside price targets, to be honed by intervening price action. Refer to latest publications for current analysis. For a FREE copy of INSIIDE Track: Dollar Revolution – Gold II, e-mail us and request it.