El Nino Triggers Locust Plagues
01/28/16 INSIIDE Track: Outlook 2016–2017
40-Year Cycle Collision Courses
“2016 has begun very similar to how it was anticipated. If the outlook for 2016 (and beyond) was to be validated, two important things were projected for mid-Dec. ’15–late-Jan. ’16… and potentially extending into Feb. ’16:
1 – A sharp stock market sell-off.
2 – An initial, multi-month advance in Gold.
Both projections have initially been validated with Stock Indices plummeting during the first three weeks of January – putting in their worst ever start to a new year. As part of that decline, the DJ Transports dropped as much in late-Nov. ‘15–mid-Jan. ‘16 – the early stage of Crash Cycles – as they did in late-Nov. ‘14–late-Aug. ‘15.
On the day of the low (Jan. 20th), the Transports dipped into the 30+% loss territory… but then rallied to close above that threshold…
With regard to Gold, it came through cycle lows in late-Nov. and then briefly spiked down to its second, 3–5 year downside objective – and its primary downside objective for 2015 – at 1033–1045.0/GC.
Gold & Silver quickly triggered 3–6 month buy signals and then, in mid-Dec., Gold triggered an intermediate buy signal. When it fulfilled the potential for a secondary low on Dec. 31st, Gold was projected to rally into late-Jan. and up to 1125.0/GCG, its monthly LHR for January.
That set the stage for 2016.
On Jan. 27th, Gold reached 1128.0/GCG. While this is only a small milestone, its attainment is an important first step on the journey expected in 2016. (See related market comments for further additional analysis.) It needs to set new higher – for this overall rebound – after mid-Feb. to fulfill the primary expectation for 2016…
Food Crisis 2016/2017 Update
From a surprising angle – making it unsurprising in its nature – the 40-Year Cycle of Food Crises – most prominent in 2016/2017 – appears to be receiving some corroboration from a 60-Year Cycle(the ‘cycle of life’) that hearkens back to Biblical plagues. According to the NY Times:
“Argentina Scrambles to Fight Biggest Plague of Locusts in 60 Years”
That’s right folks, a good ole’ plague of locusts is the latest factor to reinforce cycles that portend a challenging Food Crisis in the coming year(s).
According to the article, the government is running out of time to contain this plague before it exits the dry forests – where it now resides – and moves on to crops like cotton & sunflowers. The’mild and rainy weather’ (thank you El Nino) has provided optimum conditions for the locusts to breed… and breed they have!
In 2015, farmers reported clouds of locust over 4 miles wide and almost 2 miles high. That is a lot of locust!! (The article also mentions Argentina’s gov’t program to combat locust – set up in the 1890’s. Hey, wasn’t that a few phases of the 40-Year Cycle ago??) The plague is being partially attributed to this being the wettest year since the 1930’s.
Do you sense another 40-Year Cycle sequence forming??
This also comes on the heels of a devastating locust plague in S. Russia in August 2015 (their worst in 30 years), which consumed the entire corn crop in some regions. According to all these sources, locusts thrive in a warm, wet environment – something that El Nino is continuing to provide in many areas of the globe. So, we probably have not seen the last of the locust plagues.
The UN – in Nov. 2015 – warned of the heightened risk of locust plagues in the Middle East & North Africa. (This came on the 100-year anniversary of the Palestine Locust Plague of 1915 – one of the Middle East’s worst.)
01/30/16 – Soybeans, Corn & Wheat have fulfilled downside expectations – dropping into Nov./Dec. 2015 and providing the potential to perpetuate a 7-year low (late-1994)–low (late-2001)–low (late-2008)–low (late-2015) Cycle Progression.
They need to give weekly closes above their January highs in order to turn the intra-year trends up and project higher prices into mid-2016.”
El Nino-triggered flooding is creating another factor poised to contribute to Food Crisis Cycles in 2016–2021 – locust plagues. While this challenge was not on our ‘radar’, expectations for increased precipitation & flooding – for South America (& California) – has been projected to adversely impact crop production in 2016/2017.
One unintended consequence, receiving very little attention at this time, could be resulting topsoil erosion – greatly exacerbating the struggles from California’s (& US crop production as a whole) 40-Year Cycle that shifts in 2016/2017… and in 2016–2021. See corresponding INSIIDE Track issues & Reports for related analysis.