Gold & Silver Confirming Strength…

Gold & Silver Confirming Strength…
13+-Week Rally = Ideal Scenario.
Mid-March = Decisive.

01/27/16 Weekly Re-Lay Alert:  “Time for the 3rd Shoe?… & The Golden Slipper

There were two critical expectations (and a lot of corresponding ones, as well) for the opening months of 2016… both of which were continuation of what had been projected to begin in Dec. 2015… and which were powerfully validated by ~2-week & ~4-week cycles on Dec. 29–31st.  In no particular order…

#1 was for Stock Indices to decisively enter 2016 Crash Cycles – with a convincing multi-month decline to begin immediately after mid-Dec. 2015.  That was the pivotal phase of the 32–33 Week Cycle Progression (as illustrated in the May 2015 Stock-flation Capitulation Report) – after which most cycles would be in clearly-recognizable downtrends.

#2 was for Gold to begin The Golden Year (2016) with a similarly-decisive advance – part of the first sustainable rally in several years.  That was corroborated by two essential events in 4Q 2015 – the attainment of Gold’s second 3–5 year (and primary 2015) downside price target at 1033–1045/GC AND the transition of intermediate cycles that bottomed in Nov. 2015 and were expected to turn up in Dec. ’15.

Once Gold had fulfilled and transitioned from those vital objectives, it was expected to embark on a multi-month advance.  If it is to fulfill initial expectations, Gold needs to stretch this rally to 13 weeks or longer and exceed the duration of each of the three rallies of the past couple years.  That would take it higher into (at least) late-February ’16.

After intermediate moves into Jan. 20th, Stock Indices & Gold entered a ‘pause’ – a brief reaction or period of congestion – before those intermediate trends were expected to resume (this week).  In the case of Stock Indices, this represents the expected ‘3rd Shoe’ to drop – following the first shoe in early-January and the 2nd shoe immediately after (Jan. 13–20th).

In the case of Gold, this is a breakout advance during the accelerated phases of two short-term cycles (14–15 day & 28–30 day) – leading into Jan. 28th/29th.  If Gold can turn its weekly trend up, it would powerfully validate the overall outlook for 1Q 2016… and for The Golden Year.

On an intermediate basis, this is poised to culminate the latest rally in Gold, even though the highs might only hold for 1–2 weeks.  The coming days represent the culmination of what was described in late-Dec. and again in mid-Jan

Gold & Silver have begun to accelerate their advances, in line with previously-described daily cycles and this past weekend’s analysis in Silver – that is showing signs of turning a corner (to the upside).  This has allowed Gold to reach its January upside price targets, just as Silver is bumping up against 2-month resistance. 

Gold needs a weekly close above 1113.1/GCG to turn its weekly trend to up and confirm that a multi-month (possibly multi-quarter) bottom is taking hold…Silver needs a daily & weekly close above 14.640/SIH to give the next level of confirmation to a developing bottom. 

3–6 month & 6–12 month traders and investors should have entered long positions in Gold & Silver near the lows and should hold them until a weekly close below the lows…TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK.

The XAU has begun to show signs of reversing higher, after perfectly fulfilling/perpetuating a ~30-degree high (Sept. 18th)–high (Oct. 15/16th)–low (Nov. 17/18th)–low (Dec. 17th)–low (Jan. 19th) Cycle Progression while completing a ~90-degree decline from its Oct. peak.  It has twice neutralized its daily downtrend and needs a daily close above45.72 to reverse that trend to up.”  

Gold & Silver confirming 2016 outlook.  13-week (or longer) advance expected… taking it into early/mid-March1Q 2016 = Bullish phase.