Gold/Silver/XAU Spike to Extremes
Gold/Silver/XAU Spike to Extremes;
Set Stage for Early-Sept. Peak…
Pullback Low Likely Sept. 11 – 15.
08/30/17 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – The Spike:
“Leading into this week, key markets continued to project a culminating spike before their latest moves were complete. For the past few weeks, these markets had been signaling that a quick rally – to weekly or monthly extremes (LHRs) was likely before a multi-week top could take hold.
Even as they completed cyclic expectations, price action continued to signal that additional upside was still very likely and that these markets had not yet seen the kind of spike (quick surge followed by abrupt reversal lower) that is present at these types of rally crescendos. Conversely, the Dollar Index was projecting a culminating spike low…
Gold spiked right to its latest weekly LHR (1330.1/GCZ) – the extreme upside objective for this week – while Silver tested & held the combination of weekly & monthly resistance as well as its monthly LHR.
That turns the focus to the Sept. 1 weekly close. That is when Silver would have another chance to turn its weekly trend up (with a weekly close above 17.24/SIU & 17.325/SIZ)…
A more convincing sign of a new bull market would be if Silver can give a weekly close above 17.60/ SIZ and turn its intra-year trend up. If/when that takes place, it would greatly reduce the potential for any additional Silver lows in 2017. (A web of monthly cycles reinforces the significance of this time period and are elaborated in the Sept. ‘17 INSIIDE Track.)
Regardless of what Silver does, Gold is still expected to set a higher low around Sept. 11th (+ or – 1–2 trading days) – after which it could embark on a more accelerated advance. The initial upside target for Gold, since January, has been 1377.0/GC – based on its monthly trend turning positive at that time.
(Following, Sept. 11th, the ensuing 2-month/60-degree period – culminating around Nov. 11 – could be a decisive one in Gold as it times the most likely time for an accelerated advance… and just happens to culminate near the 1-year anniversary/360-degree cycle from its dramatic spike high of early-Nov. 2016, a dramatic reversal on Election night.)
The XAU spiked to the peak of its 6-month trading range, attacking its latest two weekly LHRs (90.66–91.08). It would need to give a weekly close above 90.03/XAU to turn its intra-year trend positive. If that fails to occur, the XAU could correct into Sept. 11th.
In spiking to new highs, the XAU fulfilled its daily trend pattern and reinforced its weekly uptrend. It also exceeded the weekly 21 High MARC (88.19/XAU), keeping the corresponding weekly 21 MAC slightly positive. (As stated on 8/26, if that failed to occur, a new sell-off should take hold. At least for the time being, that has been held at bay.)
Regardless of the action between now and Friday, the next intermediate cycle low is still expected around Sept. 11th, the latest phase of a 60-degree/2-month low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. That is reinforced by the next phase of a 19-week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression coming back into play on Sept. 11 – 15.”
Gold & Silver broke above their Aug. 10/11 highs after holding them for two weeks while maintaining positive daily trends. Silver could add additional bullish signals on Sept. 1 close. Once a peak takes hold, a quick pullback into Sept. 11 – 15 is expected… as part of a developing new surge in 3Q/4Q 2017. See ‘A New Golden Age’ for 2017 outlook. (http://40yearcycle.com/pages/
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.