Inflation Resumes in 2015

04/22/15 W. R. Alert “As commodities – best illustrated in the DJ-UBS Commodity Index – continue to struggle with the effects of a ~4-year (and larger ~7-year) deflationary period, many markets continue to align for major bottoms in2015…

The XAU remains positive after turning its daily trend up and then pulling back.  It then turned its intra-month trend up, corroborating that near-term bullishness, and rallied into mid-month – fulfilling that signal.  The weekly 21 MAC is rolling over to the downside and was/is expected to exert negative pressure in the coming weeks.

The early-March low – that perpetuated a 17–19 week high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression & projects an ensuing low in early-July 2015 – is expected to hold through April.

The midpoint – in early-May – could provide an intervening low.  That could also complete a 50% retracement – in time – while perpetuating a ~7-week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression.”

XAU reinforcing early-March cycle low; Secondary low likely in early-May.  Critical resistance level should determine outlook for June–Dec. 2015!