Iran & Turkey, Earthquakes & Volcanoes, Arab Spring
10/27/11 INSIIDE Track: “Outlook 2011-2012… Fulfillment… & Futureinforcer
10-27-11 – The early minutes of Act II have already provided an important fulfillment of ongoing analysis and a key precursor to what is still expected. On October 23, 2011, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck near the border of Turkey & Iran.
As reiterated just last month, a 7.0+ earthquake was overdue for Iran and was expected to strike in the current period…
From 1929 to 1957, Iran averaged a major earthquake – of 6.5 magnitude or greater – every 5 years…In the overlapping period of 1953 to 1976, this frequency accelerated with Iran averaging a major earthquake – of 6.5 magnitude or greater – every 4
years…This frequency – and the related intensity – accelerated further, from 1968 to 1981, when Iran averaged a major earthquake – of 6.9 magnitude or greater – every 3 years…
The average from 1976 to 1997 was about the same – one quake every 3 years – but this period included one of the most deadly… a 7.4 quake in 1990 that claimed over 50,000 lives…From 1994 to 2006, the frequency increased while the intensity decreased (modestly)
…From Sept. 2008 into Jan. 2011, Iran was hit by 7 earthquakes ranging from magnitude 5.7 to 6.7…Not surprisingly, the two quakes in January 2011 – on Jan. 13th & 27th – were like bookends around a major, 7.2 quake in SW Pakistan – about 150 miles from Iran.
Looking at this from a slightly broader perspective, Iran has experienced at least 30 earthquakes – of magnitude 5.9–7.8 from 1947 until 2011. 11 of these quakes have been between 7.1–7.8 magnitude… an average of one 7.0+ earthquake about every 6 years. However, Iran has not experienced a 7.0+ earthquake since 1997 (overdue?).
At the very least, Iran (and her new nuclear facility) is in a period when – statistically & cyclically speaking – another 7.0+ quake is due.
Could an impending quake and the related instability be part of the reason that Iran is also increasing the frequency and intensity of their ‘irrational belligerence’?
If I did not know any better, I would say the pattern of earthquakes in Iran is like the birth-pain analogy that is used in Scripture – and which has been borrowed in this newsletter many times – with increasing frequency occurring as it leads into a major event.”
The accompanying map and article excerpt show the close proximity of this earthquake to Iran.
While it is certainly a near fulfillment, I do not believe it is the ultimate fulfillment. Rather, it appears to be just another in a tightening circle of major earth disturbances around (and often in) Iran…
The Squeeze Play
There is an important aspect to this analysis and to this latest earthquake. Actually, it is related to the entire series of earthquakes – not only in Iran but also in neighboring countries like Turkey, Pakistan & Afghanistan.
In the same way that Iran is slowly being geopolitically ‘squeezed’ by nearby revolts & revolutions – and the overthrow of similar totalitarian regimes – in surrounding nations, Iran also appears to be the focus of a creeping series of major earthquakes that are squeezing her, seismically.
From a geopolitical perspective, it began with the forced departures of the Sunni/Baath party in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan – over the past decade – allowing Western/U.S./democratic influences to take hold in these surrounding countries.
With the 2010/2011 Arab Spring ushering in the ouster of other Middle East despots, Iran (and Syria & Saudi Arabia) is feeling the ‘walls closing in’ from every direction. Democracy is creeping toward Iran, compressing her from every direction.
Simultaneously, from a geophysical perspective, the same type of ‘creep’ is occurring with major earthquakes…
Turkey has experienced several major earthquakes in the past decade – each one moving from west to east, closing in on Iran. The latest – a 7.2 on October 23rd – was near the border and felt in Iran. (The map on page 3 gives the dates & approximate locations of these 7 major quakes.)
At the same time, major earthquakes in Pakistan (to the east of Iran) have moved from the far northeast of the country to the far southwest – bordering Iran (2005 – 7.8, 2008 – 6.4 & 2011 – 7.2). The 2005 Kashmir EQ claimed over 80,000 lives., but was a greater distance from Iran. The 7.2 that struck in January 2011, however, was much nearer the shared border with Iran.
Here again, this seismic activity is rolling – like a wave – toward Iran.
From a cycle perspective, 2 of these 3 major quakes hit during the month of October – as did the recent Turkey quake – adhering to the April/October (180-degree) sequence that is the offset of the January/July (180-degree sequence). The 2011 Pakistan quake was in January.
[The January/July cycle has governed many global earth disturbances over the past 20 years. Along with the April/October sequence, these carve a calendar year into 4 equal, 90-degree segments in time, when major earthquakes have taken place. October 2011 could still see more.]
If you look at Afghanistan – sandwiched between Pakistan & Iran on a NE/SW angle – a similar movement has unfolded over the past 10-15 years…
Afghanistan experienced two major earthquakes – in the far northeast part of the country – in Feb. & May 1998 (6.1 & 6.8 – at 37 degrees N.).
In March 2002, another pair of devastating and deadly quakes hit – located a little southwest of the 1998 quakes (7.4 & 6.1 – at 36 degrees N). In December 2005, a 6.7 quake hit – also south of the 1998 quakes. In 2009, the largest quakes continued their ‘creep’ to the south (36 & 34 degrees north – for a 5.5 & 6.2 quake).
And then, in April 2010, a 5.4 quake hit at 32 degrees N (much farther south and farther west than all the others) – not far from the border with Iran. This, a third wave (or a second facet of the wave moving throughPakistan), is rolling toward Iran in a consistent manner.
Is it just me or is this a rather eerie sequence of earth disturbances, all over the past 10-15 years and all moving from the perimeter (of a large circle) toward the center?
And all of these are narrowing in on a ‘target’ that is overdue – based on its own seismic cycles – for a major earthquake??
It makes me think of a rather benign wave hitting a stationary bulkhead. Suddenly, the power driving the wave is recognized as the water leaps into the air when the wave contacts the solid object. If these are truly some form of converging, seismic waves, I would not want to be at the meeting point – when they all converge.
A similar analogy is related to where the ocean meets a coastal inlet or canal – sometimes referred to as the ‘breakwaters’. I am not describing the actual structure — known as a bulkhead or breakwater – but rather the water entering and exiting a channel that is perpendicular to the shore.
The wave action closer to shore is usually subdued, a result of the protective bulkhead. The wave action out in the ocean (or Great Lake, etc.) also appears benign, a result of the large expanse over which it is spread.
However, the point at which the two bodies of water meet – or at least where the impact of the incoming waves meets the force of the outgoing, receding water from shore – can be a very unstable area. I have been on boats – heading out to the Atlantic Ocean from the New Jersey coast and heading out to Lake Michigan from the shore – when they hit this point. It is never a calm situation.
These seismic and/or oceanic waves have many similarities to the movement of the markets, as R.N. Elliott observed (at least with respect to ocean waves). And, the point at which powerful, conflicting trends or market forces meet is similar to these phenomenon.
So, is Iran soon to feel the power of these converging seismic waves… or am I just observing some meaningless patterns that will abruptly shift without notice? In the meantime, the instability surrounding Iran is likely to continue.
I should remind readers I am not a geologist but rather someone that observes and recognizes cycles and patterns – in the markets, in the earth, in geopolitics, etc. As a result, I cannot help but recognize multiple patterns that augur a major earthquake in Iran in the not-too-distant future. If this conjecture comes to fruition, it is the resulting fallout (I am not presently referring to nuclear fallout, but anything is possible) that could impact the markets…
The Explosive Period
As discussed many times, 2012–2014 is the onset of a period that is expected to see multiple, major volcanic eruptions around the globe. While the primary focus of this analysis is on Europe’s northern & southern extremes, I expect it to be a worldwide phenomenon.
With respect to potential European eruptions, Icelandic volcanoes remain one of the focal points and are again providing some validation.
Katla Volcano Updates – A 2nd swarm of earthquakes was felt in early-October, reinforcing ongoing expectations for increasing activity – and ultimately a major eruption – in the coming years.
According to John Seach at volcanolive.com (and an extrapolation of the following data) – “Historically, large eruptions have occurred at regular intervals about every 50 years.”
As I have analyzed the historical data for Katla, there has been a very consistent cycle of 95–100 years between two overlapping series of major eruptions. Let me explain…
One of these series includes eruptions in 1660–61, 1755–56, 1860 & 1955. Eruptions in 1177 (+/- 2), 1262, 1357 (+/- 3) also fit into this sequence.
The overlapping series includes major eruptions in 1625, 1721, 1823 & 1918. There were corresponding eruptions in 1416 & 1311.
The next phase of this series arrives in 2013–2018… right in the midst of several corroborating convergence of global volcanic cycles.
Another aspect of these two series is the gaps between them, which are not symmetrical…
In the majority of cases, the early-century eruptions have followed the previous mid-century eruptions by about 60 years (1918 was 58 years after 1860, 1721 was 60-61 years after 1660–61)… creating a near Golden Ratio division (.618) throughout this history.
It is similar to the pattern between uptrends and downtrends in the markets, where one of the two (depending on the larger-degree overriding trend) consumes more time than the other… even though the shorter one is usually more violent.
If this pattern repeats, a 58-61 year gap – from the 1955 eruption – pinpoints 2013–2016 for a major eruption at Katla…
Tambora & Krakatoa Updates – These two Indonesian volcanoes – the sites of two of the most violent and devastating eruptions of the past two centuries – experienced increasing activity from 2007–2011. The latest was an eruption in July 2011 that was powerful enough to destroy seismic monitoring equipment.
Tambora had a 6.7 earthquake on November 9, 2009, a 6.1 on May 8, 2010 and increasing volcanic earthquakes since April 2011. On September 8, 2011, the alert level was raised to 3 (out of a maximum 4).
Tambora – as you might recall – is known for its 1815 eruption (the culmination of a 3-year period of increasing seismic activity from 1812–1815, not completely unlike the current activity) that caused the ‘Year Without a Summer’ in 1816. Krakatoa is known for its 1883 eruption that caused a major tsunami and claimed over 36,000 lives.
A 3rd Indonesian volcano should not be overlooked… Mt. Merapi – which had more violent eruptions from the 600’s through the 1800’s – had not experienced the same intensity of activity for over a century… until late-October 2010.
Here again, it was major earthquakes that preceded/foreshadowed this. These included 6.3 and 7.7 quakes in May & July 2006. If the past two millennia of activity are any indication, Merapi and the entire archipelago ofIndonesia could be coming back to life.
And all this is just random coincidence? …that could never be gauged or assessed by something as esoteric as cycle studies??? Really?
Whether individuals choose to stick their head in the sand or not, the expected ground-shaking will still feel the same.”
Oct. 23rd Iran earthquake corroborates ongoing sequence. Crescendo expected in 2016–2018! Volcano cycles poised to enter increasingly explosive period (2012-2014, then 2014–2017 and finally 2018–2021 – each period expected to see accelerated frequency & intensity)!