Russian & Equity Bears; Cycle of War
12/27/14 Weekly Re-Lay: “40-Year Cycle, 7-Year Cycle & 14-Year Cycle Update:
The coming week represents at least two anniversaries that should be watched closely. The first is a 1-year anniversary (360-degree cycle) of the late-2013/early-2014 highs in Stock Indices. By itself, that holds minor significance – providing a potential time for a 2–4 week peak.
More significant is the anniversary of the ouster of Boris Yeltsin – on Dec. 31, 1999 – that paved the way for the ascension of Vladimir Putin in early-2000. (The stock market peaked a couple weeks later – as the Russian ‘Bear’ was coming out of hibernation – and a Stock ‘Bear’ took hold for the next 2.5+ years.)
That event – from 15 years ago – arrived 15 years after another high-profile Russian/Soviet departure (in Dec. 1984) that paved the way for the ascension of Mikhail Gorbachev in early-1985.
Conversely, those events saw the Russian ‘Bear’ going into hibernation as the Stock ‘Bear’ (that looked ominous through 3Q 1984, when a 20% drop was culminating) also went into hibernation.
I mention this for two reasons. One is my expectation that Russian turmoil & uncertainty will play a role in the next ‘bear’ market in stocks – in 2015–2016.
(The ‘Bears Beget Bears’ topic was discussed in late-1999 and again in late-2007 – each time in anticipation of and correlation to an impending drop in stock prices.)
The second is closely related to that and encompasses the 7/14/28-Year Cycle of War that was also linked to Russia (and the Middle East) when discussing analysis for a late-2001 conflict involving the U.S.
2015 represents the latest phase and/or mid-point (of the 28-Year Cycle that linked conflicts in 1917, 1945, 1973 & 2001) and also coincides with the 40-Year Cycle of War & Peace that has been discussed in recent months.
If events in Russia escalate again, it would increase the potential for a geopolitically-tumultuous period in 2015. And that could be presaged by further developments in the near future… And that could be linked to the next (anticipated) phase of Gold & Silver’s rebound – in the coming weeks.
While this is all just speculation at the present, it is worth mentioning in the event that any new news begins to emerge from that part of the world… in the coming week(s).
And, the coming week includes the final days of 2014 – the ultimate culmination of the 40-Year Cycle of Stock-flation.
2015 holds some unique possibilities for Russia and resulting or coinciding ones for Europe (even if they are not directly related to Russian happenings). And, I expect the Euro – and its ultimate breaking below multi-year support – to be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back of global economic ‘stability’.
Just as the mid-2007 forecast – that a Dollar break to new 40-year lows would trigger the onset of a stock market breakdown – a decisive breakdown in the Euro could also trigger a stock market breakdown. (The Dollar fulfilled that analysis in late-Sept. 2007. Less than 2 weeks later, the Stock Indices peaked and began a 17-month/50% decline.)
Already, evolving developments in Greece (and possibly Spain) are setting the stage for that. Coinciding turmoil in Russia would not be surprising.
2015 is expected to bring down the curtain (or raise the curtain, depending on how you view this analogy). Could the coming weeks provide any additional clues as to how this will unfold?”