Silver Confirms Trend Signal
Silver Confirms Trend Signal;
Omen of Impending (Initial) Peak…
Pullback Low Likely Sept. 11 – 15.
09/02/17 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Gold & Silver remain positive, rallying from weekly & monthly cycle lows surrounding July 10 – 12 as well as from subsequent daily & weekly cycle lows on Aug. 7 – 11. Another ascending low is still possible on Sept. 11 – 15 but only if Gold & Silver avoid turning their intra-month trends up.
As the latest rally was unfolding (since early-August), one key expectation was for a spike to weekly LHR levels as a sign of culmination. That took longer than expected but was finally fulfilled during the past week.
Gold surged to its latest weekly LHR (1330.1/GCZ) and 2 of its latest 3 weekly LHRs (1330.1 – 1336.2/GCZ) while Silver tested the combination of weekly & monthly resistance as well as its monthly LHR. By attaining these extreme upside objectives, Gold & Silver fulfilled key targets. But, a reversal lower has not yet been signaled.
At the same time, Silver provided some decisive action that clarifies the outlook for the coming months. Silver finally reversed its weekly trend up, a lagging/confirming indicator that was necessary to remove any remaining potential for a drop back to the July low. Just as important, Silver also turned its intra-year trend up.
This allowed Silver to join Gold in signaling (at least on a preliminary basis) that a multi-month/multi-quarter bottom is intact – the perceived ‘II’ wave low of a slowly-developing bull market. That refers to the July 10 low.
(Gold provided a similar signal in early-2017, identifying its Dec. ’16 low as that ‘II’ wave bottom, and has remained the more bullish metal since then. That is why it was projected to set a higher low in mid-2017 followed by an equal or higher low in Sept. 2017.)
Silver could add confirmation to that by first closing above its June ’17 peak (17.92/SIZ) and then closing above its April ’17 peak (18.89/SIZ). On a comparative basis, Gold has already done both – reinforcing its minimum outlook for a rally back to 1377.0/GC.
On a price basis, Silver could see a retest of 18.50/SIZ – the upper end of its present 2.50 point trading range – as part of this overall advance. As described last year & revisited multiple times this year, Silver has traded in 2.50 point trading ranges – with uncanny regularity & precision – for most of the past ~4 years.
That includes the late-2015 low around 13.50/SI and the mid-2016 peak around 21.00/SI, as well as most of the past 11 months spent ricocheting between 16.00/SI & 18.50/SI. There have been two times (mid-Dec. ‘16 & early-July ‘17) when it gave a brief break below this range – and ushered in the potential for a move to the next lower extreme – but those failures were short-lived.
The action of Sept. 5 should clarify whether a test of 18.50/SIZ is more likely before or after an intervening correction.
There are multiple 1 – 3 month (or larger) factors pinpointing the current period for a multi-week high – and possibly a multi-month high in Silver**. They include the midpoint of a ~41-week high – high cycle (described in the Sept. ’17 INSIIDE Track) & the weekly trend pattern. With Silver just reversing its weekly trend up, that often triggers a multi-week reactive pullback.
The period of Aug. 31 – Sept. 7 is also the latest phase of a ~13-week/3-month/~90-degree high – high cycle that has timed multi-week/multi-month highs (often secondary or penultimate highs) in early-Sept. ’16, early-Dec. ’16, early-Mar. ’17 & early-June ’17. As a result, Silver could see a blow-off peak in this period and then see some consolidating just below that high.
[**In sync with what has been seen for most of the past year, there is the potential for renewed divergence between Gold & Silver, since Silver remains in expanding 1 – 3 month, 3 – 6 month & 6 – 9 month trading ranges even as Gold is above all three of its corresponding ranges.
As a result, Silver could peak now, pull back into Sept. 11 – 15, rebound back to its high & possibly see a second (‘c’) wave drop into early-Oct. even as Gold [reserved for subscribers].]
The XAU spiked to the peak of its 6-month trading range, attacking its latest two weekly LHRs (90.66–91.08) – surging higher than expected in this time frame. It turned its intra-year trend up but needs a weekly close above 90.82/XAU to break out of its 6-month trading range. A rally above that level is now needed to prevent the weekly 21 MAC from flattening or turning lower.
In spiking to new highs, the XAU fulfilled its daily trend pattern and reinforced its weekly uptrend. It also exceeded the weekly 21 High MARC (88.19/XAU), keeping the corresponding weekly 21 MAC slightly positive. (As stated on 8/26, if that rally failed to occur, a new sell-off could take hold right away.)
Another multi-week cycle low is still possible on Sept. 11 – 15, the latest phase of a 60-degree/ 2-month low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression & a 19-week high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. If that is going to occur, the XAU needs to peak on Sept. 5 or 6 and then see a quick, sharp pullback into the following week.
Since turning its weekly trend up, the XAU has reduced or removed the potential for lower lows in the near term. However, the monthly trend pattern leaves open that potential for the coming months. Intervening price action needs to clarify…
Gold & Silver remain positive and began the week with another spike high, fulfilling short-term cycles. The next phase of the 6 trading day cycle in Silver, when another high is possible, is on Sept. 6. Gold has related daily cycles coming back into play in the next 1 – 2 days.
As long as a daily high is set on Sept. 5 or 6, Gold & Silver could still see a quick drop into Sept. 11 – 15 – similar to the 3 – 6 trading day declines Silver experienced in late-June/early-July (a drop of over 1.70 points), and early & mid-Aug. (drops of .70 – .80/SIZ) – before a new multi-week low forms.”
Gold & Silver reinforcing mid-2017 low. A higher low – after a brief correction – is still likely on Sept. 11 – 15 … as part of a developing new surge in 3Q/4Q 2017. Price action needs to clarify that. See latest publications for updated analysis. Also, refer to ‘A New Golden Age’ for 2017 outlook. (http://40yearcycle.com/pages/
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.