Stocks Fulfill (#1) Sharp Sell-off
09/14/16 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Danger Period #1 Evolving:
“Stock Indices are moving through the first of two anticipated ‘Danger Periods’, following the latest phase of the 32–33 Week AND 66-Week Cycles.
It was the coincidence of those ‘twin peaks’ that spurred projections for a 1–2 month (linked to the 32–33 Week Cycle) AND an overlapping 2–4 month ‘Danger Period’ (linked to the ~66-Week Cycle) – similar to what occurred in May–Aug. ’15… the last time that both cycles converged.
In that case, which is also expected in this case, the sharpest decline came at the tail end of that 2–4 month Danger Period – leading into late-August ’15.
It is not atypical – from a cyclic perspective – that late-August 2015 was culminating a 2–4 month plummet (in which some stocks & Indices lost 30-40% of their value) and that late-August 2016 is initiating what is expected to be another 2–4 month plummet.
I have repeatedly described that type of ‘bookend’ cycle action in which one cycle begins an action and an ensuing cycle completes an action… or vice-versa. (A textbook example involves the 40-Year Cycle of War & Peace discussed in 2015.)
Adding intrigue to this cycle scenario is the fact that Nov. 2016 would fit into that 2–4 month time frame AND it coincides with the ongoing 5-month cycle (connecting blow-off lows in late-Aug. ’15, late-Jan. ’16 & late-June ’16) AND it fits perfectly with what has been projected since early-2015.
Late-2016 is the culmination/transition of a decisive period when a 15–18 month topping process (that began in early-2015) is expected to yield to a more convincing & sustained bearish period – derived from the synergy of many factors… including the parallels to DJIA & DJTA action in 2000–2002.
AND… late-2016 is also when the monthly 21 MARCs will be in the prime setup to help reverse the corresponding monthly 21 MACs and confirm a multi-year reversal to the downside.
From an intermediate price perspective, the DJIA reached (and held, for 4–6 weeks) its primary upside objective from the late-June low – at 18,600–18,700. That powerfully corroborated projections for a new, multi-month decline from that price range… which has since been validated.
Looking ahead to late-Nov., the daily cycle that just pinpointed the recent rebound high – and helped trigger a new 1–3 month sell signal – could hone timing expectations…
A 36-day low (June 27)–low (Aug. 2)–high (Sept. 7th) Cycle Progression augured that peak and projects a subsequent peak around Oct. 13th… with the ensuing phase around Nov. 18th.”
Stock Indices Suffer Sharp Sell-off into mid-September… project focus to Oct. & Nov. 2016 cycles. Similar to June 2016, Nov. 2016 could produce opposing lows & highs… or vice-versa. Watch days surrounding Nov. 18th. Late-2016 remains pivotal period when major (monthly) indicators poised to turn negative.