Stocks Mirror 2000–2001 Movement

Stocks Mirror 2000–2001 Movement;
Sharp Drops & Strong Rallies Persist…
Uncanny Weekly Cycle Could Clarify.

03/12/16 Weekly Re-Lay“Stock Indices have rallied sharply after fulfilling monthly cycles lows in January & weekly cycle lows in February.  Those lows reinforced expectations for future lows while ushering in the potential for intermediate rebounds.  The DJIA & S+P turned their weekly trends up, mimicking the DJ Transports…

Stock Indices have rebounded since reaching extreme support on Jan. 20th and fulfilling intermediate cycles bottoming in late-Jan./early-Feb. 2016.  That portends subsequent lows in late-April/early-May (multi-week low) and June (multi-month low)… based on related cycles.

The way in which the Indices set their late-Jan. lows provided the first corroboration to early-2016 cycles and to the ongoing expectation that this bear market would look similar to the DJIA & S+P in Mar./Apr. 2000–July/Aug. 2001 – ~18 months of a developing but disguised bear market.

In that case, almost every sharp (1–3 month) decline was quickly met with a nearly equal (but slightly less) powerful 1–2 month rebound – creating a stair-step sequence of slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows.

By spiking down to monthly HLS levels in January (intra-month extreme downside targets) – as the Indices were testing 2016 yearly support levels during the opening range of 2016 (first three weeks), they set the stage for an important low. 

That also corroborated the monthly cycles that projected the next important low to wait until June 2016.  In the interim, the Indices could rebound for up to half (~50%) of that cycle as long as they do not exceed the previous highs. 

The Transports soon corroborated that, turning their weekly & intra-year trends up – identifying a larger-degree rebound than any seen since their Nov. 2014 peak. (They have 2–3 month resistance at ~7850–7910/DJTA.)

As explained previously, when a market moves to one extreme (low) during the majority of its opening range – but does not follow through after that opening range is complete – it often heads back toward the opposite extreme (high), to test its strength. 

That is what transpired during the first three weeks of January – which has spurred the ensuing rally back toward the January (& intra-year) highs.  Those levels (17,405/DJIA, 2036.25/ESM & 4601/NQM) are the make-or-break points for the intra-year trends…  [See complete March 12, 2016 Weekly Re-Lay for uncanny cycle that would reinforce potential for June 2016 cycle low.]

Stock Indices remain in daily uptrends and have – except for the NQM – turned their intra-month trends up, showing a little additional strength.”

Stocks continue to rebound as they near the midpoint of their 5-month cycle (that pegged late-August ‘15 & late-Jan. ‘16 lows) in early-April.  Uncanny weekly cycle – that governed entire 2007–2009 decline – could corroborate.  See complete March 12, 2016 Weekly Re-Lay for details and related chart.