Stocks Triggering New Sell Signals
11/07/15 Weekly Re-Lay: “Stock Indices have all rallied since late-September, the time when bearish cycles bottomed in 2015. The DJIA, ESZ & NQZ have attacked their intra-year highs while other Indices have barely rebounded 50%… some much less. The Nasdaq 100 fulfilled its weekly trend pattern that projected a retest of the highs. Traders should be getting back on the short side of the Indices at current levels…
Stock Indices remain strong following the culmination of their initial bearish cycles (late-April–late-Sept. 2015) and before the next bearish phase, expected after mid-Dec. That is when a more convincing – and potentially more sustained – bearish cycle should trigger the more devastating phase of 2015/2016 Crash Cycles.
In the meantime, several Indices have experienced strong advances in 4Q 2015… even as others have struggled to produce anemic rallies.
The DJ Transports are a perfect example, remaining in a weekly downtrend and still failing to rebound to intermediate resistance at ~8400/ DJTA. That Index has geometric (90, 180, 270 & 360-degree) cycles that converge in late-Nov… the next phase of a ~90-degree high-high-low-low Cycle Progression that should time a low.
That cycle last timed the late-August bottom – when the DJTA was projected to test ~7600 and put in an intermediate bottom. If that is to be the case, the Transports should turn back down soon and could see a quick, sharp drop in the second half of November. Ideally, they would not even close above 8,270/DJTA in the short term. The NYSE is in a similar (more bearish) situation.
That could also be corroborated – in some of the more bullish Indices – by a recurring ~60-degree high-high cycle that last timed the mid-July & mid-Sept. peaks. A subsequent, mid-Nov. peak would reinforce a bearish period in late-Nov.
Consistent with all the diverse trends & cycles, the Transports could see a sharp drop into late-Nov., followed by some of the other Indices rallying to new highs into mid-Dec. And then, the second shoe is expected to drop…
3–6 month & 6–12 month traders/investors should have begun re-entering the short side of the Indices (except NQZ) on Oct. 29/30th and can continue selling between …” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK.
Most Stock Indices have completed the ‘strong advance in 4Q 2015’, (described in the Nov. 2014: 2015/2016 Roadmap and are now triggering new sell signals. Crash Cycles do not kick in, however, until late-Dec. 2015. That is when the ‘real trouble’ should emerge in the markets.