Stocks Portend Surge into Nov ’22; Trigger Multi-Week Buy Signals!
10/20/22 INSIIDE Track Update – “Stock indices are slowly advancing with the DJIA turning its daily trend up and then entering a likely 1 – 2 day pullback. The S+P 500 and NQ-100 need daily closes above 3733/ESZ & 11,253/NQZ to turn their daily trends up.
(The Russell 2000, S+P Midcap 400 & DJTA did not turn their daily trends down during the drop into Oct 13 – corroborating the potential for a multi-week rally.)
At the same time, the DJIA closed above its declining daily 21 High MAC. When an intermediate reversal higher is unfolding, that signal is usually followed – within 1 – 2 trading days – by the direction of the daily 21 High MAC turning up.
For that to occur, the DJIA needs to rally above (intraday) 30,302/DJIA tomorrow (which it could do on the open)… and only above 29,955/DJIA on Oct 24. (Other indexes would need to rally above their Sept 22 highs on Oct 21, above their Sept 23 highs on Oct 24, etc. to turn their respective daily 21 High MACs up.)…
This comes after many stock indexes just perpetuated a ~16-week high (early-Nov ’21)-low-low-low-(low; late-Sept/early-Oct ’22) Cycle Progression that should prompt a 2 – 4 week – and possibly longer – rebound, likely stretching into Nov ‘22.
In a moderate scenario, the DJIA could rally about the same magnitude as it did in late-Feb – mid-April ’22… taking it back up to ~32,000/DJIA. That is also right where the monthly 21 Low MAC comes into play and where the descending weekly 21 High MAC will be in late-Oct and possibly early-Nov. It is where the DJIA would rebound .618 of its latest decline and is where the latest two weekly LHRs converge.
There is another intermediate cycle that is prevalent in some of the indexes and which could help mold expectations for the coming months. It has been a ~19-week (NQ-100) – ~20-week (Russell 2000) high-high-high Cycle Progression – connecting the highs of Nov ’21, Mar ’22 & Aug ’22.
The next phase is in early-Jan ’23 and could time a subsequent peak if recent lows hold.
1 – 2 month traders can enter long positions in stock indexes between current levels and the Oct 13 lows and risk (exit on) a daily close below the Oct 13 lows.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock indexes sold off into the recurrence of an uncanny ~15-Week Cycle that projects a 1 – 2 month bottom by/on Sept 30, reinforced by several indexes dropping to new 2022 lows. More importantly, they have fulfilled 9 – 12 month downside wave structures and project a higher-magnitude rally in the coming month(s). A bottoming phase should now begin to unfold… and could lead to a 15 – 20% DJIA gain in 4Q ’22 (see Oct ’22 INSIIDE Track for details).
A final, potentially violent spike low on the Oct 13 CPI Report was expected, and fulfilled, and could lead to a multi-week or multi-month rally. Many other cycles & indicators concur. New buy signals corroborate!
On a broader basis, stocks are reinforcing longer-term analysis for a 1 – 2 year peak in early-Jan ’22 followed by a 6 – 12 month plunge in 2022. See related publications for additional analysis.
How Would Late-Sept ’22 Low Reinforce Overall 2022/2023 Outlook?
Why is Higher-Magnitude Rally Expected in 4Q ‘22??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.