Interest Rates Portend 2021 Resurgence of Inflation! Bonds/Notes Concur.
01-04-21 – “Bonds & Notes have consolidated since setting what was/is expected to be a multi-month bottom in early-Nov. ‘20 – the perpetuation of a ~360-degree/~1-year low-low-low-low Cycle Progression that previously timed lows in early-Nov. during 2017, 2018 & 2019.
That is when they likely completed the ‘1’ or ‘A’ leg down (of a larger-magnitude decline), dropping from early-Aug. into early-Nov. – a ~90-degree/~3-month move in time. A subsequent low is likely in [reserved for subscribers]…
In between, Bonds & Notes are tracing out a likely ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave bounce that would usher in the potential for a second multi-month decline (‘3’ or ‘C’ wave down). They have been forming a large convergence of upside targets for this rebound with the greatest synergy around xxx-xx/TYH.
On a broader perspective, Bonds & Notes are expected to remain below the highs they set in June/July ‘20 while perpetuating a ~4-year low-low-low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression dating back to the 1990’s (more recently timing peaks in mid-2012 and mid-2016). That was forecast to time a major, multi-quarter (and ideally multi-year) peak.
In sync with what has been described since March 2020, a resurgence of price inflation from late-March ’20 into May ’21 is likely to modify some of the overly bearish sentiment toward interest rates (that was in place in 2Q ’20) and instead apply new downward pressure on Bonds.
Eurodollars are reinforcing the near-term outlook for Bonds & Notes, projecting an early-Jan. peak in sync with weekly and monthly cycles. A high at that time would perpetuate an ~8-month low (early-May ’18) – high (early-Jan ’19) – high (early-Sept ’19) – high (early-May ’20) – high (early-Jan. ’21) Cycle Progression as well as a more recent 4-month high-high-high Cycle Progression.
Longer-term investors and hedgers can be liquidating long positions in Bonds & Notes and selling on intermediate rallies. A rebound to [reserved for subscribers] could spur additional selling.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Bonds & Notes are in what is projected to be a 2 – 3 year downtrend after fulfilling analysis for a multi-year peak in ~July ’20 AND the peak of a final, wave 5 of V advance (v of 5 of V). A multitude of factors are projecting an initial surge in inflation in 2021… with other phases to follow.
Stocks & Silver (paper & commodity inflation) triggered 6 – 12 month buy signals in March ‘20 as multi-year cycles bottomed… with stocks projected to advance into May ’21 before a multi-month peak would become likely. Lumber & Natural Gas also triggered March ’20 buy signals… ushering in a multi-year inflationary period.
2021/2022 is expected to usher in the first shift in multi-decade cycles (40-Year & 80-Year Cycles) – timing everything from War (late-2021 into late-2025), Climate (Drought Cycles peak in 2021/22 and shift to Deluge Cycles in 2022/23), Agriculture (80-Year Cycle shifts in 2022/23), Currency Wars (2021)… and Interest Rates. The final year(s) of a 40-Year Cycle of Drought (into 2021/2022; see 90/10 Rule of Cycles) could magnify commodity inflation in the coming years.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.