Gold & Silver (& XAU) Near Cycle Lows; Surges into early-May ’23 Likely!
02-25-23 – Gold & Silver are declining with Gold removing any realistic potential for a retest of its high before a deeper correction (which is currently unfolding). Silver remains in intra-year and weekly downtrends, reinforcing its early-Jan ’23 cyclic peak.
Silver has been correcting since surging into cycle highs on Jan 3 – 6 and reaching its multi-month upside target (24.50 – 24.68/SIH). That culminated a ~4-month uptrend and ushered in the time for a multi-month corrective period… which is likely to continue through 1Q ’23.
Silver was forecast to spur a drop to/below 21.50/SIH with the ideal scenario seeing Silver test 21.00 – 21.20/SIH – where intermediate support levels and/or downside targets continue to build and where a multi-month bottom was/is most likely. At the same time, Gold was forecast to spike as low as 1820.0/GCJ before entering a new rally.
Both have dropped to those levels, fulfilling the primary downside objectives for these sell-offs, and have spiked below them – showing a bit more weakness than what was expected during this decline… but still remaining in congestion.
That has had Silver spiking below near-term cycle lows (mid-Feb) and into a larger-scale ~6-month/24 – 26-week high-high-low (Aug 29 – Sept 2, ’22) – (low; Feb 24 – Mar 3, ’23) Cycle Progression – a ~6-month/~180-degree move from its Sept 1 low. A low in the coming week would also complete a 50% retracement in time (4 months up, 2 months down)…
From separate perspectives, both Gold & Silver are projecting a future peak for early-May ’23. That would fulfill a ~4-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Silver and a ~3-month low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in Gold. (If they are able to give a quick surge into early-March, Silver would also have a ~2-month low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression recurring in early-May ’23.)
Gold would also complete successive advances of equal duration (~7 months/~31 weeks) in early-May ’23… when compared to Aug ’21 – Mar ’22…
The XAU & HUI are steadily tracing out a textbook wave structure, first surging into Jan ’23 and fulfilling ongoing projections for multi-month rallies to 137.29 – 139.84/XAU & 259.42 – 262.31/HUI. They peaked at those target ranges and reversed lower.
They sold off to/below initial downside price targets and are setting up for a ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave low (primary low was Sept ’22) – now that timing objectives are being fulfilled (21 – 23-week high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression).
The first advance – into Jan ’23 and right to the 3 – 6 month upside targets at 137.29 – 139.84/XAU & 259.42 – 262.31/HUI – was able to reverse the monthly trend to up, a lagging and confirming indicator that usually reverses at/near the culmination of an initial multi-month rally. At the time, the XAU perpetuated a 9 – 10 month/41 – 45 week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
Once a peak was set, there was a combination of price and timing downside targets expected from this sell-off. The price targets, which have been fulfilled (and exceeded to the downside) came into play at 115/XAU & 220/HUI. That set the stage for an impending low in line with cycle lows:
2-28-23 – “They turned their monthly trends up on Jan 31 – signaling the end of an initial 3 – 6 month advance while projecting a future rally after an intervening 1 – 3 month decline. On Friday’s close, they turned their weekly trends down – identifying the likely time for an initial low…”
The weekly trends turned down on Feb 17 – during the same week that extremes (weekly HLS levels) were tested and held – both signals that portend a 1 – 2 month low in the ensuing 1 – 3 weeks (by Mar 6 – 10, ’23, at the latest).
That fits perfectly with weekly cycles that have governed mining shares for the past couple years. In particular, a 21 – 23 week high-high-high-high-low Cycle Progression – that helped pinpoint the Sept ’22 low – projects a subsequent low on Feb 24 – Mar 10, ’23. That has been the primary focus – for the next multi-month low – since early-2023:
1-05-23 – “The XAU & HUI have rallied since dropping into Sept ’22, fulfilling a ~5-month (21 – 23 week) high-high-high-low Cycle Progression… That set the stage for a multi-month low with the ongoing outlook for a surge to 130 – 137/XAU & 245 – 251/HUI… The next multi-month low could be seen in the first half of March ‘23, in line with the 23-week Cycle Progression…””
Both Gold & Silver have corrected since early-Feb with Gold testing its intermediate downside target and key support near 1820/GCJ. They are poised to set 1 – 2 month lows and embark on new advances with the current corrections nearing a pivotal time. These retracements would complete ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave pullbacks (following the initial impulse waves from the Sept & Nov ’22 lows) and set the stage for strong rallies in 2Q/3Q ’23… potentially coinciding with the outlook for topping interest rates and bottoming Bonds & Notes.
The XAU & HUI are similar and are fulfilling projections for sell-offs to ~115/XAU & ~220/HUI. Cycles project a multi-month low by March 6 – 10 – during the latest phase of an uncanny ~23-Week Cycle that next bottoms in late-Feb/early-March ’23.
How High Could Gold & Silver Reach in 2023?
Could the Outlook for Bonds (Bottom in ~March ’23) Corroborate?
What Other Factors Could Positively Impact Silver?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.