Nasdaq-100: A Closer Look – Part II; Bullish Trends/Cycles Maturing.
05/24/23 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Stock Indices are widening their divergence as the Nasdaq-100 fulfills its 2023 upside targets… Throughout most of 2023, the Nasdaq-100 has been forecast to rally to 13,500 – 13,800/NQM with a potential spike above 14,000/NQM… before a top would become more likely. The March 14, 2023 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – an additional one compiled to reiterate this outlook – was titled ‘Nasdaq-100: A Closer Look’. It began with the same chart that is reprinted above.
Today’s Alert is a sequel to that and is expanded to fit several prescient quotes from that update…
At the time that was written, the corroborating monthly LHRs were gathered in a tight range at 13,902/NQM, 13,968/NQM & 13,997/NQM (and at 13,616/NQ, 13,690/NQ & 13,825/NQ in the cash index) – creating a type of 2 – 3 month upside range trading target that was triggered when the NQ-100 closed above its Nov ’22 – Jan ’23 highs (in early-Feb ’23).
That type of developing synergy often reveals a ‘magnetic’ extreme resistance target that eventually ‘draws’ a market to it… even if that is not in the specified time when a LHR test would be expected.
It is also a range-trading target since the NQ-100 repeatedly rallied to the same resistance (~12,400) and held that ceiling for ~4 months before finally breaking out above it in early-Feb.
While trading below that resistance, the NQ-100 repeatedly found support near 10,900/NQM (in Oct, Nov & Dec ’22 and early-Jan ’23)… a ‘floor’ that was as consistent as the ‘ceiling’.
Once that ~4-month/~1,500/NQM range was exceeded, in early-Feb ’23, it turned focus to ~13,900/ NQM as the next upside range-trading target (a ~1,500/ NQM rally above ~12,400/NQM). Regardless of timing, that ~13,900/NQM objective remained the next upside range-trading target.
The discussion of the intra-year trend created another form of range-trading parameters. As stated back then, the NQ-100 had “…rallied from an early-Jan low of 10,870/NQM to a high of 11,878/NQM in that Jan 3 – 20, ’23 time frame (3 weeks).”. When it finally broke above that high, the NQ-100 immediately shot up to a related range target (doubling the magnitude of the year-opening range) at 12,886/NQM.
Once it broke above that level, the next upside range target was at 13,892/NQM. (10,870 – 11,878 – 12,886 – 13,892/NQM). So, there were multiple forms of range targets all converging around 13,900 – 14,000/NQM.
Reinforcing those was the primary upside wave target at 14,014/NQM. That is where the advance from the March 13 low (11,806/NQM) would equal the magnitude of the previous advance from Jan 6 – Feb 2 (10,870 – 13,078/NQM), as described in the March 14 Alert.”
Stock indexes remain in bullish 3 – 6 month cycles & trends and are fulfilling the outlook for another rally into June ’23. Intra-year uptrends often spur a rally into the middle part of the year – approximately between mid-June & mid-July ’23. A peak in mid-to-late June ‘23 would corroborate what has already been projected by the Russell 2000 after setting a likely 3 – 6 month low on March 20 – 24, ‘23 (the latest phase of a ~3-month/~90-degree cycle AND a 3-Year Cycle from the March 20 – 24, ’20 low) and projecting a subsequent ~3-month rally (on balance) into mid-to-late-June ‘23.
The DJIA turned its weekly trend up in late-April, signaling a likely (initial) peak in early-May, and has fulfilled the potential for a 2 – 3 week reactive sell-off… that should be followed by a new rally into the middle portion of June ’23. The S+P 500 is still poised to fulfill analysis (first detailed in early-Jan ’23) for a rally to 4300 – 4350/ES.
The NQ-100 is attacking its primary upside target and latest range trading target (~10,900 – ~12,400 – ~13,900 – ~15,400, etc.) and has time/space for additional upside. Since the March ’23 analysis, the latest monthly LHRs (extreme intra-month price targets) have moved higher – first to ~14,450/NQ in April ’23 and then to ~14,800/NQ in May ’23 – identifying progressive extreme targets for this advance.
Why are Intra-Year Trends & Weekly Trends Forecasting Rallies into June ‘23?
How Does The Russell 2000 ~90-Degree Cycle Progression Corroborate that Outlook?
Can Indexes Exceed 2Q ’23 Targets at ~14,000+/NQ & ~4300 – 4350/ES Likely?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.