Stock Index Intra-Year (and Weekly) Trends Project Rallies into June ‘23.
05/18/23 INSIIDE Track Update – “Stock Indices are rallying in tandem even though their overall structure remains wildly divergent with the NQ-100 now attacking its primary upside objective for 2023… While most of these other indexes have been slowly tracing out a (secondary) topping phase, the NQ-100 has been forecast to surge…
On a 1 – 2 year basis, the NQ-100 has had a lagging advance – only now reaching the point where it has rebounded 50% of its initial decline – even though it has remained a stronger index on a 3 – 6 month basis… On an intra-month basis, stocks were projected to spur spike lows on May 15/16 and reverse higher. That is what took hold, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the Nasdaq-100.
On an intra-year basis, the Feb. ’23 INSIIDE Track reiterated the primary upside target (~13,800/NQ) for the NQ-100 – an objective that needed to be reached before any talk of a multi-month peak could be seriously considered…
1-31-23 – “What Next?
In the process, the NQ-100 reversed its weekly trend up – a lagging and confirming indicator that often reverses within 1 – 2 weeks of an initial peak… that could time a peak by/on Feb 3… Regardless of near-term action, the overall outlook remains for a strong rally from late-Dec/early-Jan into March ‘23… the second rally in this larger rebound.
The Big (ger) Picture
The action of late-Sept ‘22 reinforced that an initial 6 – 9 month decline was likely complete and so a larger-magnitude (‘B’ wave) rally should follow. The monthly trend structure concurred.
The S+P 500 is still setting up a convergence of upside targets and monthly resistance levels around 4300 – 4350/ES… that could be tested before a ‘B’ wave rally is complete. That is where the mid-Aug ‘22 peak overlaps the July – Oct ‘21 lows (support turned into resistance) and is just below where the monthly 21 MAC is peaking and flattening…
Similarly, the NQ-100 is likely to see a sharp surge toward its mid-Aug ’22 high (~13,800/NQ), which would also represent a doubling of the Oct/Nov ’22 rally and a doubling of the Jan ’23 rally – two examples of potential range-trading in which the NQ-100 has traded between 10,400 & 12,100 for most of the past four months and could surge to ~13,800/NQ on a breakout above that range. That would also represent a precise 50% rebound of the 2021/22 sell-off…”
That objective was reiterated throughout the month of Feb ’23 with some additional factors tweaking (raising) that target in the ensuing weeks, as the NQ-100 was fulfilling a projected multi-week pullback and setting a secondary low (while testing intra-year trend support) on March 13/14…
3-08-23 – “The NQ-100 is currently the most constructive, having pulled back to its rising weekly 21 High MAC, fulfilling the textbook 1 – 3 week reactive sell-off after turning its weekly trend up…
The late-Dec/early-Jan ’23 low in the NQ-100 fulfilled a 7-month/~30-week high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that projects a future low in Aug ’23. That is the same time (late-July/early-Aug ‘23) the DJIA would fulfill a ~9.5 month high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression and the S+P 500 would fulfill a related 40 – 41-week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression. Aug ’23 is also when the DJTA would fulfill a 46 – 47-week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression…
As far as price objectives, the NQ-100 should rally… potentially to 13,500 – 13,800… Based on wave action, there is a good chance the futures could exceed those levels… The S+P 500 is still capable of reaching ~4300/ES before a ‘B’ wave rally peaks…”
3-14-23 – “Stock Indices continue to diverge with the NQ-100 remaining in the most positive structure. For starters, it bottomed much later than most other indexes – stretching a final low into late-Dec/early-Jan ’23 when it fulfilled a 7-month/~30-week high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression that projects a future low in Aug ’23.
[That is the same time (late-July/early-Aug ‘23) the DJIA would fulfill a ~9.5 month high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression and the S+P 500 would fulfill a related 40 – 41-week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression.]…
After setting that low, the NQ-100 rallied and ultimately turned its weekly trend up. (Currently, the NQ-100 would not even neutralize its weekly uptrend until a weekly close below 11,520/NQM.)
At the same time, (late-Jan/early-Feb ’23), the NQ-100 closed above its weekly 21 High MAC as that average was turning higher.
Both that pattern and the weekly trend pattern usually usher in an initial peak and multi-week pullback – often retracing to the weekly trend point and/or the rising weekly 21 High MAC.
The NQ-100 has pulled back to the rising weekly 21 High MAC and retraced 50% of its Jan/Feb rally – reinforcing range-trading support and other critical levels of support near 11,800 – 11,900/NQM.
It has spiked lower into March 13 – perpetuating a ~1-month/~30-day** low (Oct 13/14 ’22) – high (Nov 13/14 ’22) – high (Dec 13/14 ’22) – high (Jan 13/14 ’23) – high (Feb 13/14 ’23) – low (Mar 13/14 ’23) Cycle Progression that corroborates an ~11-week low-low-(low) Cycle Progression this week.
(**The daily Cycle Progression is more pronounced in some other indexes, like the DJIA, but all of them have set these mid-month turning points.)
All of these factors favor a multi-week low taking hold at/near the March 13 low… Another corroborating factor is the intra-year trend. Simply put, a market needs to give a weekly close above the trading range of the first three weeks (of a new year) in order to turn its intra-year trend up.
Once that has been triggered, that high (breakout point, the high of the first three weeks) becomes a decisive level of ‘resistance turned into support’ that is often retested during a subsequent pullback… before a new impulse wave (advance) emerges.
The June NQ-100 futures rallied from an early-Jan low of 10,870/NQM to a high of 11,878/NQM in that Jan 3 – 20, ’23 time frame (3 weeks).
On Jan 27, the NQ-100 closed above that range and turned its intra-year trend up. It has remained in that intra-year uptrend ever since. Since the early-Feb ’23 peak, the NQ-100 has been slowly retreating back toward that decisive breakout level (now support).
On March 13, the NQ-100 dipped below 11,878/NQM and then quickly reversed higher – reinforcing the decisive nature of this intra-year trend support…”
The bullish intra-year trend signal – that the NQ-100 triggered on March 13/14 – is part of what projected an extension to its advance into the middle part of 2023…”
Stock indexes remain in bullish 3 – 6 month cycles & trends, expected to spur another rally into June ’23, even as the monthly charts show a slow, gradual topping pattern. Intra-year uptrends often spur a rally into the middle part of the year – approximately between mid-June & mid-July ’23.
A peak in mid-to-late June ‘23 would corroborate what has already been projected by the Russell 2000 after setting a likely 3 – 6 month low on March 20 – 24, ‘23 (the latest phase of a ~3-month/~90-degree cycle AND a 3-Year Cycle from the March 20 – 24, ’20 low) and projecting a subsequent ~3-month rally (on balance) into mid-to-late-June ‘23. It bottomed in perfect sync with the onset of the new Natural Year and has moved progressively higher from that low.
The DJIA turned its weekly trend up in late-April, signaling a likely (initial) peak in early-May, and has fulfilled the potential for a 2 – 3 week reactive sell-off… that should be followed by a new rally into the middle portion of June ’23. The S+P 500 is still poised to fulfill analysis (first detailed in early-Jan ’23) for a rally to 4300 – 4350/ES.
Why are Intra-Year Trends & Weekly Trends Forecasting Rallies into June ‘23?
How Does The Russell 2000 ~90-Degree Cycle Progression Corroborate that Outlook?
Can Indexes Exceed 2Q ’23 Targets at ~14,000+/NQ & ~4300 – 4350/ES Likely?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.