Gold, Silver, & Euro Poised to Bounce (& Dollar Decline) into ~July 14; Drop into Aug 14 – 25, ‘23.
07-08-23 – “Gold & Silver are validating their late-June lows and could extend rebounds into July 14/17…
The Dollar Index is in neutral territory after fulfilling the outlook for an initial drop to ~101.50/DXU and subsequent rebound. As warned last week, this past week was ‘pivotal when the Dollar could still suffer a quick spike back toward its low’. That was, and still is, a result of multiple factors…
First is the weekly trend, which has failed to turn up after multiple attempts. That often results in a drop back to the originating low… Reinforcing that, the weekly 21 MAC was poised to turn back down after initially bottoming. The inversely-correlated 21 MARC entered a 5 – 6 week rally and was poised to overtake the 21 MAC – resulting in it turning back down.
The Dollar Index rallied right to its weekly 21 High MAC (103.18/DXU) and reversed lower, generating an outside-week/2 Close Reversal lower… that should spur a drop back to the lows. An ‘a-b-c’ projection reinforces the coming week’s HLS near 100.50/DXU and could be tested.
The Dollar is still expected to set its next multi-month peak on Aug 14 – 25, ’23 – the fulfillment of a 23 – 24 week & 11 – 12-week high-high-(high?) Cycle Progression. July 14 could time an intervening low.
The Euro is expected to set a multi-month low at the same time – fulfilling a 45 – 46-week high-low-low-(low?) Cycle Progression (Aug 7 – 18, ‘23) and a 50% retracement in time (30 wks up, 15 wks dn). The next 1 – 2 week high is likely on ~July 14…
The Dollar Index did see a sell-off and turned negative in the process. That is reinforcing the weekly trend pattern, projecting a drop back toward its 2023 low. A new 1 – 2 month low could be seen on/around July 14, with a corresponding peak in the Euro (and potentially Bitcoin)…
With the coming week’s LHR at 1984/GCQ, Gold could spike up to ~2000.0/GCQ but close the week at or below 1984/GCQ… if something triggers a quick rally. Silver has related resistance at 24.60 – 24.80/SIU and is still likely to set its next multi-week high around July 14, ’23.
The next multi-month cycle low in Gold is still expected in late-Aug ’23…
A low on Aug 21 – 25, ’23 would complete both a 50% and a .618 retracement in time (both lows of the late-2022 double bottom are used to calculate the ensuing rally), a 16-week/26-week low-low-low (1/1.618) cycle, and a ~3-month/~90-degree low (Nov 23) – low (Feb 27) – low (May 25/26) – (low; Aug 23 – 28) Cycle Progression.
Gold & Silver have rebounded after Gold fulfilled a 28 – 29 day low (Mar 8) – high (Apr 5) – high (May 4) – high (June 1) – (low; June 29/30, ‘23) Cycle Progression (that could ultimately reinforce future cycle lows in late-August – two more 28 – 29 day cycles in the future).
If Gold can close above 1942.9/GCQ and Silver above 23.535/SIU on Monday, it would turn the intra-month trends up and project additional upside into July 14/17… the same time Silver is likely to peak – ~3 months/~90 degrees from its April 14 high and ~6 months/~180 degrees from its Jan 17 high.
Those highs were preceded by lows on Oct 14, ’22 and July 14, ’22… and a high on April 14, ’22… a consistent string of ~3-month turning points. A high on ~July 14, ’23 would fulfill a ~3-month/~90-degree low-low-high-high-(high; July 14, ‘23) Cycle Progression and project another on ~Oct 14, ’23.
The XAU & HUI remain negative & are ultimately expected to drop back to (or below) their early-March lows – which now represent 4th wave of lesser degree support near 110.0/XAU & 210/HUI.
In the interim, they have retested their lows (fulfilling their daily trend pattern) and likely set a multi-week low without turning their intra-month trends down. Rebounds to ~130 – 133/XAU & 254 – 257/HUI are possible in the coming week(s).
A subsequent low is likely in late-Aug ’23 – the fulfillment of an uncanny ~23-week high-high-high-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and overlapping 45 – 51 week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression. That is also the latest phase of a ~12-month high (Aug ’19) – high (Aug ’20) – low (Sept ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – (low; Aug/Sept ’23) Cycle Progression.”
Gold & Silver remain below the lows set while fulfilling multi-month upside price targets AND cycles/timing indicators that peaked on May 3 – 5, ’23 (while convincingly reinforcing two future cycles). They completed initial sell-offs in May ‘23 with the weekly trends providing additional corroborating clues – projecting a new decline after a reactive bounce – that is ultimately projected to stretch into the second half of Aug ’23, when a myriad of weekly & monthly cycle lows converge.
From a broader perspective, the early-May ’23 peaks powerfully corroborated the other primary cycle focus for 2023 – the time frame in/around late-Oct/early-Nov ’23. That remains a decisive cycle, with some surprising expectations for the months leading into it! [The period surrounding early-Aug ’23 could provide additional reinforcement.] A strong rally could begin in the second half of Aug ’23 and last into late-Oct/early-Nov ’23.
All of this action, since late-2022, is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential with the Dollar Index already fulfilling multi-year upside targets and signaling that a major top is in the making! The Dollar is projected to set a future peak on Aug 14 – 25 while Gold is likely setting a multi-month low.
The XAU & HUI are similar and fulfilled projections for a strong rally into, and a multi-month top in, early-May ’23. In mid-April and early-May ’23, they reached convincing upside targets and signaled 3 – 6 month peaks and the onset of a 1 – 2 month corrections… which have been unfolding. Intermediate lows are likely at any time and could spur a bounce into mid-July ‘23 before the next sell-off.
The XAU possesses the most consistent and uncanny weekly cycle – a 23-week high (Jun ’21) – high (Nov ’21) – high (Apr 18 – 22, ’22) – low (Sept 26 – 30, ’22) – low (Mar 6 – 10, ’23) – (low; Aug 14 – 21, ’23) Cycle Progression that portends a multi-month bottom on Aug 14 – 21, ’23 (greatest synergy of cycles on Aug 15 – 18, ’23). Related cycles in Gold & HUI overlap this period, projecting a multi-month bottom during that week or the week the days that follow (overall period of Aug 14 – 25, ’23).
How Does Early-May Peak Corroborate Aug – Nov ’23 Cycles?
Is a New MAJOR Bull Market Unfolding? If so, When is a Breakout Likely??
How Are Interest Rates & Inflation Creating a Unique Opportunity?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure for expanded analysis that addresses some of those questions.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.