Gold/Silver Bottom at Support; Project Sharp Rallies into Early-December ’23!
11-18-23 – “The Dollar plunged as the Euro & Yen rallied with the Euro turning its weekly trend up. Gold & Silver fulfilled daily cycle lows (~Nov 13) and are surging…
Gold & Silver are surging again after correcting into daily cycle lows – most synergistic on Nov 10/13 – as Gold attacked and held its weekly HLS at 1937/GCZ while Silver completed a 50% retracement of its initial advance.
That low fulfilled a 26 – 29 trading day high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression and paved the way for Silver to rally into early-Dec ’23 – when a ~7-month/~30-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression recurs on Dec 1 – 8, ’23.
Silver’s mid-October ’23 high reinforced analysis for a subsequent high to emerge in mid-January 2024. A rally into the middle half of January 2024 would perpetuate a ~36-week low-low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression as well as a .618 rebound in time (22 weeks down, 14 weeks up).
From a broader perspective, long-term decennial and geometric cycles are focused on 2023 – 2025 as a likely time for a major rally in Silver (see November ’23 INSIIDE Track for details).
The Sept 2022 low was expected to be a multi-year low and the recent Oct 2 – 6, ’23 low was likely the end of Silver’s wave II retracement. It fulfilled a textbook .618 retracement in time – 35 weeks up & 22 weeks down – as well as ~11-week high-high-(low) AND ~15-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progressions.
That ushered in the ‘1’ of ‘III’ advance – the October ‘23 surge – that should pave the way for future rallies if/when a breakout of Gold’s triple-top occurs (see April 11, ’23 issue of The Bridge for related analysis on this ultimate breakout signal).
The ‘2’ of ‘III’ pullback bottomed on Nov 13 and ushered in the ‘3’ of ‘III’ advance.
Silver did see a surge to ~24.40/SIH, its weekly LHR, fulfilling near-term projections. It could see an overall rally to 25.77/SIH (ideally by/on Nov 30, ’23), where its monthly LHR intersects its late-August ’23 high (2 – 3 month resistance). That could lead into the next expected peak in early-Dec ’23
Silver is already validating the potential for a second accelerated advance in the weeks surrounding Nov 20 – 24, ’23 – the most likely time for its weekly 21 MAC to turn up (due partially to the declining 21 MARC). Gold is in a similar situation after spiking down to its weekly 21 Low MAC.
That spurred an immediate reversal back up with Gold closing the week above its flattening weekly 21 High MAC. That is the ideal (‘textbook’) pattern leading into a reversal of that channel, which is very likely in the coming week when Gold only needs to rally above 1981.0/GCZ to turn the weekly 21 High MAC up.
That is what has been necessary to trigger a second accelerated advance in Gold, which could see a quick surge to ~2055.0/GCZ – its weekly LHR – in the coming week. Ultimately, this latest rally could prompt Gold to attack and/or exceed its 2023 high at 2129.0/GCZ.
A rally to ~2132/GCZ would create equal-magnitude rallies from the early-Oct ’23 multi-month cycle low. If this rally extends into – and peaks on – December 4 – 8, 23,
Gold would fulfill a ~31-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression from its 2022 low AND complete equal-duration rallies from the early-Oct ’23 cycle low (Dec 4, ’23 = precise date).
Gold & Silver bottomed on Nov 13, ’23 – the latest phase of a ~26/27 trading day high-high-high-high-low-(low) Cycle Progression. That was/is expected to spur an initial surge into early-Dec ’23 and then another rally into January 2024…
The XAU & HUI remain on track for a 4Q ‘23 rally to 130 – 133/XAU & 251 – 254/HUI. The Nov ‘23 LHR is 132.52/XAU, creating three successive LHRs at 129.94 – 133.81/XAU. The monthly 21 High MAC is near 131.80/XAU. [December’s current monthly LHR is at 132.31/XAU but could rise if a higher intra-month high is set in November.]
On a 1 – 2 week basis, the XAU has a trio of weekly LHRs at 123.31 – 123.71/XAU – an extreme upside target that could be hit by/on November 24. That would reinforce the scenario where they stretch this initial surge into early-Dec ’23.
Both indexes are creating forms of Inverted Head & Shoulders as they trace out what are likely wave ‘2’ (of III) declines and subsequent wave ‘3 of III’ advances. The Nov 13 low fulfilled a ~6-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression and projected a 3 – 4 week rally.
They need weekly closes above 119.32/XAU & 233.88/HUI to reverse their weekly trends up and confirm the early-October ’23 cycle lows.
Platinum & Palladium are rebounding but need daily closes above 915/PLF & 1075/PAH to confirm multi-week lows and project further upside.
Copper turned its weekly trend up, confirming the late-Oct ’23 low that fulfilled a ~39-week high-high-(low) Cycle Progression. That could spur a rebound, on balance, into January 2024.”
Gold & Silver (and XAU/HUI) are fulfilling ongoing projections for a second sharp multi-week rally in 4Q ’23 as they enter the time when major advances are forecast. This new surge is expected to stretch into early-December ’23 & ultimately into the first half of January 2024.
The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for late-2023 – late-2024! This should have a dramatic impact on the US Dollar and could coincide with a pullback in interest rates.
Why & When is Gold Likely to Attack ~2070/GC… and Potentially ~2130/GC?
How Do November 13th Cycle Lows Reinforce 4Q ‘23/1Q ‘24 Outlook?
Why Do They Project Subsequent Surges into early-Dec ’23 & early/mid-Jan ’24?
Refer to the April 11, 2023 special issue of The Bridge – Gold, Silver and Elliott Wave Structure – and subsequent reports – for expanded analysis and charts as well as discussion on why, how & when Gold is most likely to break out to the upside following a multi-year ‘flat correction’.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.