Bitcoin & Ether Prep for New Surges in Dec ’23; 45,000/BT Target. Dollar Signals Trouble!
11/29/23 – “Outlook 2024 – The Golden Canary
The fulfillment of Middle East War Cycles, in October 2023, was just the latest validation to the outlook for 2023 – 2025. Reinforcing these geopolitical cycles has been the action and analysis for Gold & Silver. In many ways, Gold acts as the proverbial ‘canary in the coal mine’ – warning of looming turmoil before it occurs. That is the focus of this issue.
In mid-2001, Gold set a secondary low (primary low was Sept 1999) as Silver was setting a major low – with both projecting a multi-year advance to follow. The events of 9/11 soon followed and validated that outlook. In late-2008, Gold’s 7-Year Cycle returned & projected another multi-year surge. A global economic meltdown ensued.
In late-2015, that same 7-Year Cycle ushered in what was forecast to be a new 3 – 5 year and 5 – 10-year advance in Gold… following its longest decline since the 1990’s. That began a new Major rally – similar to the one that began in late-1999.
Just as the late-2008 low timed a secondary bottom before an accelerated ~3-year surge, the late-2022 low – the latest 7-Year Cycle – timed a secondary low in this new bull market… and could be followed by a ~3-year surge into late-2025…
Mass psychological instability on Earth is often a reflection of underlying instability below the surface (tectonic instability) and outside our atmosphere (solar instability). Since this has long been the time projected to see a surge in solar & volcanic eruptions, this geopolitical instability fits perfect. And Gold is corroborating as it steadily validates analysis for a breakout surge…
The Dollar Index turned its weekly trend down after retesting its high in early-Nov and signaling a likely multi-month top as it triggered an outside-week/2 Close Reversal sell signal. That could trigger [reserved for subscribers]…
The key to the Dollar Index outlook, however, is likely its monthly trend structure. As the Dollar rallied into Oct ’23, it twice neutralized its monthly downtrend but would not turn that trend up until a monthly close above 106.57/DXH. By reversing lower in November, it triggered a bearish signal.
Markets often peak at this stage of a trend so the Dollar Index could be setting a secondary (‘II’ or ‘B’ wave) top before the onset of a new major decline. The weekly trend reversal (to down) could usher in an initial low, since it is a lagging/confirming indicator. However, that should soon lead to a new drop.
The Euro is inverse to the Dollar and has probably set a multi-month secondary low. The weekly trend is positive while the weekly 21 MAC is neutral to negative, so volatile consolidation is likely.
The Yen rebounded from critical support (.6610 – .6654/JYZ) and is showing signs that a wave ‘5’ low has taken hold. That could lead to a 6 – 12 month advance – back to its 4th wave of lesser degree resistance (the January ‘23 high) near .7900/JY.
The Chinese Yuan has initially fulfilled the overall outlook for a decline into 4Q ‘23 and a low near its 2022 bottom (.136/CNY) That completes a ~7-Year Cycle from the 4Q 2016 bottom and a corroborating ~3.5-Year low (4Q ’16) – low (2Q ’20) – (low; 4Q ’23) Cycle Progression… and projects an initial rally back to ~.150/CNY.
The British Pound has rallied from its early-Oct low, fulfilling a ~6-month low (Sept ‘22) – low (Mar ‘23) – (low) Cycle Progression and a ~1-year/~360-degree move from its late-Sept ‘22 low at that time.
Similar to the Euro, and inversely similar to the Dollar, the British Pound triggered a bullish monthly trend signal in late-Oct/early-Nov ‘23 and should see an overall advance into 2Q 2024. That would fulfill a ~3-year high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a 10-month low-high-(high) CP…
Bitcoin & Ether continue to surge, fulfilling Bitcoin’s September ‘23 cycle low and buy signal. While setting that low, Bitcoin perpetuated a ~3-month low (Mar 10 – 14) – low (Jun 10 – 14) – (low; Sept 10 – 14) Cycle Progression while adhering to the wave structure and weekly/monthly trend setup that had been described since mid-July ‘23.
The October ‘23 INSIIDE Track reiterated:
9-29-23 – “From a price and wave perspective, that is a bullish setup which perpetuates the range trading and wave structure that has prevailed in Bitcoin… It just generated a weekly 2 Close Reversal Combo buy signal that should held spur new buying.
Bitcoin is adhering to its range trading in ~5,000/BT increments, setting a pair of lows near 25,000/BT… head back to ~30,000/BT, Bitcoin would likely break above that level and surge to ~35,000/BT… a range-trading target and a 6 – 12 month LLH objective – originating from the Nov ‘22 low near 15,000/BT and the June/Sept ‘23 lows near 25,000/BT… that 35,000/BT level could be broken and lead to a surge to ~45,000…”
The Sept 29 buy signal reinforced a similar weekly buy signal on Sept 15, creating a more powerful weekly 2-Step Reversal buy signal on Sept 29. That projected surges to ~40,000/BTC & 2100/ETH+.
Ether is showing it could extend its next multi-month peak into Feb ‘24 – the convergence of ~5-month & ~10-month related cycles.”
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing projections that their Nov ’22 lows are multi-year lows that would spur large advances into late-2023/early-2024. Bitcoin’s September buy signals projected a 1 – 2 month surge to ~35,000 (already fulfilled) and a larger 3 – 6 month advance to ~45,000/BT. Ether is on track for at least ~2100/ETH and potentially ~2,300/ETH.
On balance, cryptos could work higher into (at least) Dec 11 – 15, ’23 – the next phase of the ~3-month/~90-degree cycle that timed consecutive lows and is due for an inversion. Ether is showing that this overall advance could stretch into Feb 2024.
Has Dollar Completed its Multi-Year (~14-year) Uptrend?
Are Anti-Dollar ‘Currencies’ (Cryptos & Metals) Poised for New Bull Markets?
How Does Bitcoin/Ether Action Corroborate 2024/2025 Outlook?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.