Stocks Project (Sharp) Spike Down into April 19th; Multi-Week Low Likely.
04/16/24: Month of Aggression Culminating; Stocks, Gold & Silver Concur – “Stock indexes are reinforcing potential multi-month peaks and intensifying their downside reversals. This topping phase has been unfolding since remaining strong stocks & indexes peaked on March 20/21st – the start of a new Natural Year (many others have been peaking since December ’23).
As explained many times, the first ‘month’ of that Natural Year – from March 20/21st into April 19/20th – often times abrupt changes that influence the ensuing ~11 ‘months’. To summarize…
Stock Market Reversals & the Natural Year
Natural Year 2023/2024 came to a close on March 20, 2024 and was projected to usher in another significant shift in trend… to the downside.
In March 2023, the Natural Year shift began a new stock market advance that continued until the close of that Natural Year – a 360-degree move.
In March 2022, the Natural Year shift ushered in a decisive peak (and subsequent sell-off) that held for over a year. That peak was two 360-degree cycles ago. In conjunction with the recurring ~2-Year Cycle, March 2024 held some similarities.
In March 2021, the Natural Year shift began a new stock market advance with the corresponding low holding for almost 15 months. That, too, held a ~2-Year Cycle connection to the advance from March 2023.
In March 2020, the Natural Year shift timed the precise bottom in stock prices and began a new stock market advance that has now lasted ~4 years.
In many cases, the weeks immediately following that shift provide some clues about what’s to come…
The Natural Year ‘Opening Range’
The first month of the Natural Year – from March 20/21 until April 19/20 – has an oversized impact on key markets during specific years.
2024 was/is set up to be one of them, based on a myriad of corroborating cycles and indicators!
That first ‘month’ (the ‘Month of Aggression’) leads into the Week of Aggression (April 12 – 19th) and ultimately into the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – a time that has had a sometimes-dramatic impact on the markets, on America, and/or on the globe.
It is often a time of increased conflict or attacks – usually linked to corroborating cycles – and was forecast to see related occurrences in 2024. INSIIDE Track has detailed that correlation for over two decades and 2024 was forecast to provide another fulfillment…
Date of Aggression 2022… and Natural Year ’22/23
The Final Cars (Roller Coaster Analogy)
As the Natural Years were transitioning, one final stock index was attaining its multi-year upside target – becoming the 6th of 6 indexes to accomplish that feat. The S+P Midcap 400 attacked 3045/IDX – the upper extreme of its synergistic upside targets.
Multi-month cycles concurred…
The S+P Indexes (400 & 500) were a couple of the last to peak with the S+P Midcap precisely fulfilling a ~14.5-month high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression – connecting peaks in Sept ’20, Nov ’21, Feb ’23 and early-April 2024.
Just before that, the S+P 500 peaked in late-March ’24, precisely fulfilling a 34 – 35-week high (late-March ’22) – high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-Jly ’23) – (high; late-March 2024) Cycle Progression… arriving 2 years from that late-March ’22 peak.
The NQ-100 had been in a topping process throughout March after surging into late-Feb ’24 and fulfilling an ongoing ~2-month/~60-degree cycle and setting its highest daily close at that time. Early-April added signs of reversing lower and last week reinforced that – projecting a drop into April 17 – 22…
On a 1 – 2 week basis, the NQ-100 has a key level of support near 17,400 – where its previous (Dec ’23) high, intervening (late-Jan ’24) low, and reaffirmed range-trading support (17,400 – 18,000 – 18,600/NQM) converge. The latest two weekly HLS levels are just above that – at 17,483 – 17,494/NQM…
Stocks are fulfilling the outlook for an initial drop into this time frame and could still see additional downside in the coming days. If they bounce to daily LHR levels and reverse lower tomorrow, that would increase the likelihood for a sharper spike down.
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders could have lightened up on long positions in anticipation of a sell-off that could stretch into late-May ‘24.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indexes are fulfilling multi-week sell signals that project an initial sharp decline into April 19th. That aligns with focus on the Date of Aggression (April 19th) – the culmination of this pivotal transition period (the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year… the Month of Aggression). The key will be what occurs by/on April 19th with respect to weekly trend indicators and weekly 21 MACs.
This should be a ‘telling’ time for equity markets and the outlook for the months to follow… with April 19th likely timing a critical inflection point and spurring a multi-week bounce.
The action leading into April 19th is expected to ‘cast shadows ahead’ to a related time frame surrounding mid-May ‘24.
What Would a Drop into ~April 19th Portend for May/June 2024?
How Does This Correspond to 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.