Gold & Silver Nearing Initial Highs; April 12/15th is Key! XAU Gaining Ground.

04-10-24 – The ‘Sweet-er Spot’ for Gold & Silver Surges: As explained throughout the past year, October 2023 ushered in the latest ‘Sweet Spot’ for Silver (& Gold) from an inflationary perspective.

The U.S. economy has seen fit to create a ‘Sweet-er Spot’… perhaps the ‘Sweet-est Spot’.  Today’s CPI report reinforced that.  Here’s why:

At least up to this point (never say never), the Fed has not even thought of discussing any additional rate hikes in the foreseeable future – leaving the sweet spot intact for Silver.  Up until now, the thinking has been that all the preceding hikes would start to slow down the economy and eventually bring inflation back down to the Fed’s magical ~2% level.  That hasn’t happened.

If it was happening, it would probably be the result of a slowing economy… which would also start to take some of the shine off Silver, at least from an inflationary-hedge perspective.  Instead, Silver & Gold get the best of both worlds – persistent inflation combined with little or no threat of rising interest rates.

As explained before, the onset of an inflationary period – like that seen in 2021/2022 – is often a struggle for markets like Silver since their inflationary appeal is offset by – sometimes bludgeoned by – the continuing threat of rising interest rates (to combat that inflation).

However, when that interest rate hiking cycle is complete – but inflationary pressures remain (even if they are not escalating as quickly as they had before) – it creates an ideal situation for Silver (and Gold) to surge.  That optimum scenario began in 4Q 2023… when the talk and focus began to shift to ‘when will interest rates be cut?’.

If that wasn’t enough, an explosive geopolitical event took place in the Middle East in early-October 2023 – perfectly fulfilling a myriad of long-term cycles (all focused on 2023, 4Q 2023 and/or August – October 2023) that had anticipated this for years.

 

Middle East War Cycles in Late-2023

 

The latest phase of this ‘Perfect Storm’ – of Silver & Gold bullish factors – was ushered in along with the new Natural Year on March 19/20, 2024.  At that time, Gold completed its ‘ii’ wave correction while retesting breakout support and its month-opening range support and began a new advance – projected to last into the middle half of April and take Gold above 2320/GCM.

Soon after, Silver corroborated that in late-March and began a rally projected to reach 28.25/SIK (and ultimately exceed 30.00/SI).  The Fed’s PCE report reinforced that and spurred a surge into the CPI report as the fundamentals keep showing that inflation remains alive and well… but not scary enough to warrant talk of any new rate hikes.

This could, however, have adverse effects on other markets…

Gold & Silver have surged to primary upside targets in line with overriding wave timing targets, particularly in Gold.  For the past 6+ weeks, Gold had been projected to surge from ~2040 to ~2320/GCM in fulfillment of its mid-February buy signal.

That was/is the minimum upside target for this 1 – 2 month advance.  In late-March, Gold showed it would likely exceed that initial target and reach 2333 – 2357/GCM.  Gold has reached that combination of targets as Silver surged to its own combination of targets at 28.09 – 28.25/SIK (range-trading target, weekly LHR, monthly HHR).  (**A longer-term range target, on multiple levels, is at 30.50 – 31.25/SI.)

All of this action, including Gold’s test of its weekly LHR last week, portend a 1 – 2 month peak in the coming weeks.  That dovetails with longer-term analysis, reiterated in mid-March (see page 4).

However, price action needs to signal when an intermediate peak is taking hold.  Gold has initially fulfilled a ~19-wk low (March ’23) – high (July 17-21 ’23) – high (Nov 27 – Dec 1 ’23) – (high; April 8 – 15 (–19), ’24) Cycle Progression but competing cycles and wave objectives could still spur higher highs in April.

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders/investors could have entered long positions in Gold & Silver at averages of 2045/GCM & 23.00/SIK and be holding 1/2 of these positions w/avg. open gains of about $30,000/contract & $25,000/contract, respectively.  Move risk/exit levels to daily closes below 2280/GCM & 26.40/SIK.

The other 1/2 of Gold positions should have been exited when 2319/GCM was hit – with avg. gains of about $27,000/contract – and in Silver at the start of this week with avg. gains of about $23,000/contract.  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

The XAU & HUI have surged in line with their monthly 21 MACs & 21 MARCs.  The action of the past 7 weeks mimicked the weeks between mid-February and mid-April 2023, when the XAU embarked on a ~5 & ~7-week surge.

In both cases, the XAU suffered a final sharp sell-off for ~2 weeks, bounced, then retested that low ~2 weeks later.  In 2023, that led to an overall advance of ~35.00/XAU points over a ~5-week period.

2024 was projected to see something similar… but potentially more powerful.

That was projected to spur a surge to ~137.00/XAU leading into April 5th (7 weeks from the initial low and 5 weeks from the retest low).  It made it to 136.76/XAU on April 5th.

That also had it initially fulfilling other indicators and objectives – projecting a surge to 134 – 138.00 in this time frame.  That is where four consecutive weekly LHRs converged (highest at 137.96/XAU) – just below the monthly Raw SPR at 138.15/XAU.

The XAU has fulfilled all these objectives and could see a brief pullback – possibly spiking down to 130.50 – 131.80/XAU.  However, it would not signal a multi-week top until (at the very least) it turns its daily trend down.

And that is not possible, since it takes a minimum of 3 days for a complete trend reversal, until April 15th… at the very earliest.  (The trigger point will be discussed this weekend if it has been established by then.)

On a broader basis, the February ’24 low projected a higher-magnitude advance to at least 157.00/XAU, where the current rally would match the magnitude of the late-2022/early-2023 rally.  That could be seen in the coming months… possibly weeks.

1 – 3 month traders & investors could have entered long positions in related instruments (ETFs, stocks, etc.) when the XAU was at 102.60 – 106.00 in late-February and exited 1/3 of those positions when 134.00/XAU was hit last week.  Another 1/3 cold have been exited when 138.00/XAU was hit.  Move sell stops to exit the remaining 1/3 if/when a daily close below 130.40/XAU.  FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

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Gold & Silver are fulfilling their mid-February buy signals – projecting acceleration higher into April 12, 2024.  A myriad of cycles peak between April 12th & April 19th and should time an initial, 2 – 4 week high…

 

Gold & Silver Projecting Accelerated Surges into April 2024; Middle East Cycles Collide!

 

Gold is likely to reach 2430 – 2445/GCM at that time… and likely peak near those objectives. (See latest publications for specifics.)  A new surge will likely be seen in May/June 2024 with Silver already setting up for a volatile period.

The action since late-2022 is powerfully validating the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War in which Gold & Silver possess unique potential for 2024!  Gold is acting as the ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’ and has fulfilled projections to break out to the upside in March 2024!

 

What Will Gold Surge Portend for Other Markets??

When is Next Silver ‘Sweet Spot’?

 

40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion Dilemma & Demise

40-Year Cycle – Currency Wars & Cryptos

Solar, Seismic & Gold Intensity Cycles

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.