Stocks Set Pivotal Support with April 19th Low!
04/30/24 – “Stock Indexes are reinforcing projected multi-month peaks and fulfilling initial expectations from late-March reversals & sell signals. The first phase was projected to envelop the Month of Aggression – the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year, from March 20/21st into April 19th (Date of Aggression).
That is exactly what unfolded with an accelerated decline in AI and chip stocks leading into April 19th.
Proxy stocks like NVDA powerfully reinforced this outlook, signaling multi-week (or month) peaks on March 25th and triggering decisive reversal signals in the days that followed. That also projected sharp sell-offs into ~April 19th…
Multi-Year Cycle Progressions
There remains a significant (longer-term) Cycle Progression in focus during the first half of 2024… It began with the discussion of how the DJTA usually leads downturns in the overall equity market, often by a couple months or more. Intertwined with that discussion was the focus on February 9th – the completion of the first 40 days of the new year – a kind of testing or proving ground for markets.
(The subsequent 40-day period culminates on March 20/21st – when subsequent turning points are often seen… sometimes linked to the events surrounding February 9th.)
That topic was detailed in the January 31, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “The Initial Period of ‘Testing’ (Preparation)”, setting the stage for the DJTA to peak around February 9th and begin to lead a topping process in the overall market (at the same time Gold & Silver were forecast to be bottoming and entering into accelerated advances).
A second phase of that downward reversing process was projected to take hold on/after March 20/21st, 2024:
1-31-24 – “Opening ranges play a key role in analyzing the markets. That has been evident in many trading systems (like Market Profile, which was heavily used by day traders in the 1980’s & 1990’s) and/or approaches to analyzing and timing market movement & swings.
The intra-month & intra-year trends are an example of these.
Another involves a tactic I have used for the past ~30 years, providing swing points or confirmation points throughout the year. This was originally described in a pair of articles I published in the early-1990’s – using a Gann-like breakdown of each year in which every ~40 days (which has its own significance) represents 1/9th of the year… and every three of those times 1/3rd.
The first two are the most important – timing inflection points around February 9/10 (the completion of the first 40-day period – a period of ‘testing’ or ‘preparation’) and around March 20/21 (the completion of the second 40-day period and also the Vernal Equinox – the completion and beginning of the Natural Year).
There are certain years – like 2024 – when related, corroborating cycles heighten the focus on those time frames. Potentially, one of the more significant ones is that in Gold, Silver & the XAU – with intermediate cycles converging in the days surrounding February 9th… The action leading into February 9/10 is as critical as what follows.
Stock Indices are showing significant divergence at the highs… This potential peak was preceded (presaged?) by weaker indexes like the DJTA… which has played the same role since the late-1990’s when it peaked in May 1999, 8 – 10 months before the DJIA, S+P 500 & Nasdaq. (By the time those indexes peaked, the DJTA had already lost about 30% of its value.)
It played that role again in 4Q 2014, Sept 2018 & January 2020.
The DJTA peaked in July 2023, perpetuating a ~5-month low (April ’22**) – low (Sept ’22) – high (Feb 2023) – high (July 2023) Cycle Progression – that projected a lower high 5 months later… in December 2023.
**The April 2022 low was also 5 months after the November ’21 peak – completing an initial ~5-month decline that ‘set’ that cycle and represented the midpoint of the overall ~10-month decline into Sept 2022. That Sept 2022 low was followed by the ~10-month rebound into July 2023 – that retraced .786 (2nd Degree Golden Ratio) of the initial decline – the textbook rally for a ‘2’ or ‘B’ wave bounce.
After declining and rebounding into Dec ’23 – another bounce that peaked at the .786 (2DGR) rebound level – the DJTA sold off but has not yet turned its weekly trend down (needed to confirm the Dec ’23 peak).” – January 31, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
As it turned out, the DJTA set its highest daily close on… you guessed it – February 9, 2024.
It spiked to a higher intraday high on the following day (Feb 12th) and immediately reversed lower. 40 days later – on March 20 – 23rd, most other indexes were peaking and preparing to join the DJTA in a projected sell-off into April 19th – the Date of Aggression. The die had been cast!
…The April 13, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay explained why stocks should see an accelerated spike down leading into April 19th and – in the ideal scenario – reverse their weekly trends down…
Sure enough, stocks dropped sharply during the ensuing week and fulfilled the projected blow-off decline on April 17 – 19th…
In the coming week(s), one critical indicator – and support level – will be the intra-year trends.
The leading DJTA turned its intra-year trend down on April 19th – reinforcing that a larger-magnitude decline was only beginning to unfold.. [reserved for subscribers].”
Stock Indexes fulfilled multi-week sell signals that projected a sharp decline into April 19th… the completion of Natural Year 2024/25’s ‘Opening Range’. That aligned with previous focus on the Week of Aggression (April 12 – 19th) & Date of Aggression (April 19th) – the culmination of this pivotal transition period (the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year… the Month of Aggression).
Weekly trend reversals in the weaker indexes should usher in a reactive multi-week bounce that could lead to another divergent peak before a new decline takes hold. In contrast, the stronger NQ-100 remains positive (see related 17-Year Cycle analysis and what that could mean for 3Q/4Q 2024).
How Does The Drop into ~April 19th Impact the Rest of the Natural Year?
How Does This Correspond to 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines (and Related Analysis for 4Q ’24)?
Could This Ultimately Lead into the 2025/26 Recession Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.