Stocks Fulfilling Danger Period; DJTA Sets New 2024 Low; Project Lows in Mid-June (17/18th) ’24.

05/25/24 – “Stock Indices validated the outlook for renewed trouble on May 17th – 24th. Most indicators & stocks peaked on May 14/15th – after fulfilling intra-month uptrend signals – and have now increased the potential for an overall decline past mid-June ‘24.

Many indexes project cycle lows on June 17 – 28th – the likely completion of an overall (~3-month) ‘a-b-c’ correction.  The DJTA reinforced that with its May 14th high.

If it now declines for ~34 days/~5 weeks (the same duration as its ~April decline), it would bottom around June 17/18th – coinciding with a ~30-degree/~1-month cycle timing lows on Jan 17, Feb 20, March 18/19 and April 17/18th.

From a timing perspective, no index had greater synergy of multi-month cycle highs converging in mid-May 2024 than the Russell 2000…

The Russell 2000 rallied into the latest phase of a ~1.5-month high-high cycle that had timed multi-week highs in late-Sept, mid-Nov. & late-Dec. ‘23 and then mid-Feb & late-March ’24… and projected a subsequent high in mid-May 2024.

It rallied into mid-month – testing monthly, weekly & daily upside targets while perpetuating a ~9-month/40 – 41-week high (Jan ’22) – low (Oct 10-14 ’22) – high (July/Aug ’23) – (high; May 6 – 17, 2024Cycle Sequence. At the same time, the Russell 2000 fulfilled a related 20 – 21-week high (Jan ’22) – high (May ’22) – low (Oct 10-14 ’22) – low (March ’23) – high (July/Aug ’23) – high (Dec ’23) – (high; May 10 – 17, 2024Cycle Sequence while testing & holding the upper extreme of a 4 – 5 month trading range.

Similarly, the DJTA fulfilled a ~47-day low-high-high-high-(high; May 14thCycle Progression and projected a likely ~32-day decline (2/3 of that cycle) into June 14/17th.  May 30th could validate. 

1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders could have exited a portion of long positions in March, anticipating a sell-off that could stretch into/past mid-June 2024.  TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!

Stock Indices reversed lower after fulfilling intra-month trend patterns & objectives, as well as consistent cycles in indexes like the Russell 2000 & DJTA.  The DJIA sold off sharply into May 24th (May 23 = largest single-day decline of 2024) but needs a daily close below 39,020 to turn its daily trend down and confirm a multi-week peak.

Meanwhile, the (leading?) DJTA also plunged and has dropped another 5% since May 14th.  It could, and probably will, soon set new 2024 lows with a drop below 14,795/DJTA.”  


Stock Indexes are fulfilling the outlook for a new decline in the second half of May 2024.  That should lead to decisive lows in mid-June – the time when a multi-month bottom is most likely in most indexes – before rallies into July ‘24.  June 17/18th is the ideal time (time with greatest synergy of corroborating cycles & timing indicators) for the end of this corrective period and the onset of new multi-week rallies.

The stronger NQ-100 remains positive and could/should adhere to the general intra-year parallel to 2007 (successive highs in 1Q ‘24, July ‘24, and then October ’24… similar to 2007).  The DJTA has set new intra-year lows, increasing the potential for a multi-month low in mid-June ’24 (June 17 – 19th = greatest synergy of cycles for a bottom).

 

Why is Mid-June ’24 Cycle Low the Key to 3Q/4Q ’24 Outlook?

How Does This Reinforce 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Forecast for July & October 2024?

Will This Corroborate the Projected 2025/26 Recession (& Staglfation) Cycle?

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.