Stock Market Danger Zone! NVDA/NQ/SP/DJIA Peaks Project Sharp Drops into August ‘24!
07/17/24 – “Stock Indices are fulfilling contrasting cycles that could produce multi-week highs and multi-week lows during the same week. This comes as the previously-lagging indexes fulfilled late-June/early-July ’24 cycle lows – without adding reinforcing negative signals – and then triggered powerful reversals higher last week…
…even as the previously-leading index – the NQ-100 – signaled a multi-week top after fulfilling a myriad of upside targets in price and time.
A Tale of Two Cycles
Indexes like the DJTA – which had undergone a ~4-month/~10% correction from its early-February high – generated an outside-week/2 Close Reversal buy signal on July 12th, while neutralizing the structure of its weekly 21 MAC (previously negative).
The S+P Midcap 400 was similar, triggering an outside-week/2 Close Reversal buy signal on July 12th, while closing above its weekly 21 High MAC (after repeatedly testing and holding its rising weekly 21 Low MAC in the preceding weeks but failing to turn it or the weekly trend down).
At the same time, the Russell 2000 turned its weekly 21 MAC structure positive on July 12th (closing above the 21 High MAC while turning its direction up) while reversing its weekly trend back up. These surges were a surprise in this time frame but they do reinforce the 17-Year Cycle parallels (to 2007)…
This is remarkably similar to what occurred in July 2007 – the previous phase of the 17-Year Cycle that has been monitored all year.
At that time, the DJIA had consolidated in May & June ’07 and then triggered a bullish surge during the second week of July (July 9 – 13, 2007) before spiking higher during the ensuing week and setting a new 1 – 2 month peak (July 16 – 20, 2007).
It then sold off into mid-August ‘07 before rallying into mid-October ‘07 and setting a final peak.
In 2024, the DJIA consolidated in May & June ’07 and then triggered a bullish surge during the second week of July (July 8 – 12, 2024) before spiking higher during the ensuing week (July 15 – 19, 2024).
Could it now set a new 1 – 2 month peak, sell off into mid-August, and then rally into mid-October and set a final peak?
While I would not normally expect such close adherence to a cycle analog like this, it is something that should not be ignored. The previous phases – in 1990 & 1973 – also set July highs before selling off.
To reiterate the overall outlook:
6-28-24 – “From a broad perspective, there were/are two major cycles being monitored as potential precursors for what to expect in 2024… particularly for the lagging/weaker stocks & indexes. One is related to the oft-cited 17-Year Cycle and the other is related to a recurring 2-Year Cycle…
They are tracing out another parallel to 2007 – at which time both indexes rallied into July and then sold off into mid-August… before undergoing culminating rallies into October (2007). The S+P 500 & NQ-100 are poised to do something similar in 2024.” — July 2024 INSIIDE Track
A peak during the current week, in a few of the indexes, would fulfill ~3-month/~90-degree low – low (Jan 17, ’24) – low (April 18, ’24) – (high; July 15 – 19, ’24) Cycle Progressions, even as an index like the NQ-100 has been forecast to undergo a sharp sell-off…
The NQ-100 reinforced this 17-Year Cycle scenario (for a July ’24 peak) with several independent (and non-correlated) cycles of its own…
In 2020/2021, the Nasdaq 100 surged for ~20 months before peaking.
In 2024, the Nasdaq 100 has matched that advance and now surged for ~20 months from its October 2022 bottom into July 2024 – when a multi-week and possibly multi-month top was/is most likely.
That ~20-month advance was split into successive ~9-month advances that occurred 12 months apart (Oct ‘22 into July ‘23 and October 2023 into July 2024) with a pullback in between.
It also fulfilled a number of upside price and wave targets while setting its July 10/11th peak.
That combination of timing and price fulfillment increased the potential for a sharp sell-off… into August…
It also activated the primary/initial downside targets in the NQ-100 – at xx,xxx – xx,xxx/NQU [reserved for subscribers]…
At the other end of the spectrum was/is an index that has been tracing out a textbook Elliott Wave/weekly & monthly trend/weekly 21 MAC AND 26 – 27-month cycle scenario that projected a new surge in July ‘24.
In early-June, it was explained how the DJUA was poised for an additional ~2-week decline into cycle lows in late-June, when its weekly trend & 21 MAC structure would likely spur a new rally.
6-12-24 – “Meanwhile, the DJUA – the index more closely linked to movement of interest rates and/or the Bond market (both bottomed in October ’23 after declining from March/April 2022) – is in a similar setup on a daily basis but a much different one on a weekly basis.
As a result, both are poised to see 1 – 2 week sell-offs but the DJUA could be pulling back to rising support near 880/DJUA …”
That rising support (weekly 21 High MAC) continued to rise and met DJUA price action around 900/DJUA on June 28/July 1st – as intermediate cycles were bottoming – and helped spur a reversal higher.
The DJUA completed a textbook ‘a-b-c’ correction while testing its 2024 opening range (support for its prevailing intra-year uptrend).
That correction is likely the wave ‘4’ of a potential 5-wave advance from its secondary low in February ’24. It closely matched the magnitude of its preceding wave ‘2’ correction (March/April ’24) – reinforcing the time and price for a multi-week low.
That was projected to spur a rally back to – or above – its May 2024 high (~957/DJUA)… which has just taken place as the DJUA rallies into July 2024, the latest phase of a 26 – 27-month low (Sept ’15) – high (Nov ’17) – high (Feb ’20) – high (April ’22) – (high; July 2024) Cycle Progression that could time an important peak.
It also completes a 50% rebound in time – 18 months down (April ’22 – Oct ’23) followed by 9 months up… into July 2024. Multi-month upside targets converge at [reserved for Weekly Re-Lay subscribers]” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes set decisive peaks projected for mid-July 2024, in sync with overall 17-Year Cycle analysis and analogues. The NQ-100 is reinforcing expectations for parallels to 2007, in line with the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks (decisive peaks in July 2007 AND July 2024). Several timing indicators also projected a critical top for July 2024… and a sharp drop into August 2024! That peak has (likely) taken hold!
A key ‘proxy’ or ‘cue’ stock (a stock that often gives advanced signs of shifts in a broader market) fulfilled a (multi-month) peak projected for June 17 – 21st at/near 140.0/NVDA. It is already pinpointing primary multi-month downside targets (below 97.0/NVDA)… that would involve a serious sell-off in this and other tech stocks leading into August ‘24.
A secondary high was projected for July 8 – 12th and was just fulfilled with uncanny precision. It generated a new sell signal – along with the Nasdaq-100 – and should trigger a larger sell-off in both markets into August 2024… in perfect sync with the 17-Year Cycle!
How Does Projected Mid-July 2024 Peak Reinforce Outlook for Sharp Sell-off into August ’24?
Why Did 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Forecast Pivotal NQ + SP 500 Highs for July 2024?
Will This Corroborate the Projected 2025/26 Recession (& Stagflation) Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.