17-Year (Stock Market) Cycles Peak in July 2024; NVDA/NQ Divergent Peak Likely Now!
07/10/24 Alert – Intra-Month Trends, 17-Year Cycle & Gold Finale – “The current week is a classic convergence, or collision, of short-term, intermediate-term, and longer-term cycles in many markets.
The two primary drivers of short-term analysis are the daily trends and intra-month trends. While there remains wide divergence in individual Stock Index action and analysis, the S+P 500 & NQ-100 provide another prime example of the application of these two short-term indicators… (Gold & Silver have some similarities.)
They both remain in daily uptrends and quickly turned their intra-month trends up in July – projecting additional upside to at least monthly resistance…
On an intra-month basis, the S+P 500 is also targeting 5696.5/ESU – its Intra-month PLLR (June low – early-July low – Projected Target). All of these targets come together between 5681 – 5697/ESU…
From a timing perspective, the NQ-100 corroborated this outlook by surging right to its weekly LHR last week (20,642/NQU) – portending a 1 – 2 month peak in the ensuing 1 – 2 weeks (this week or next).
At times like now, short-term cycles & action overlap longer-term ones and present the potential (that would need to be realized) for reversals on multiple levels.
That includes the ongoing parallels to the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Declines – that portends a new 20 – 35% (or larger) decline in late-2024 – late-2025 and potentially into 2026.
Since late-2023, this has been described as likely mirroring the turning points in 2007 (and to a lesser degree, a couple of those from 1990).
In 2007, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 (stronger indexes) initially peaked in 1Q 2007 and then underwent a sharp 3 – 4-week sell-off.
In 2024, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 (stronger indexes) initially peaked in 1Q 2024 and then underwent a sharp 3 – 4-week sell-off.
In 2007, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 subsequently rallied into July 2007 and then underwent a sharper 4 – 5-week sell-off – into August 2007.
That is also what occurred in 1990, the previous phase of the 17-Year Cycle.
[Even 1973 saw a secondary high in July followed by a ~10% drop into August… followed by a rally to a lower peak in October ’73. In 1990, the DJIA plunged ~18% in July/August but then continued lower into Oct 1990.]
In 2024, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 subsequently rallied into July 2024 and are expected to undergo a sharper 4 – 6-week sell-off – into August 2024.
In 2007, the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 then mustered a final rally into October 2007 before a major top was set and the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Declines firmly took hold.
In 2024, there remains the potential (as long as an impending decline does not break 3 – 6 month support or turn multi-month indicators down) for the S+P 500 & Nasdaq-100 to muster a final rally into October 2024 before a major top is set and the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Declines firmly takes hold.
Among other things, that would also perpetuate the ~6-month/~180-degree & ~12-month/~360-degree cycles that helped set lows in the S+P 500 & NQ-100 in October 2023 and April 2024.
July 2024 is the ~3-month /~90-degree midpoint of the ~6-month cycle.
[In 2007, the DJ Transportation Average, S+P Midcap 400 & Russell 2000 peaked 3 – 5 months before the stronger indexes and diverged in October 2007, setting lower highs before a more pronounced sell-off.]
Nasdaq-100 Timing Objectives
Reinforcing the 17-Year Cycle, the Nasdaq 100 has multiple timing indicators focused on July 2024…
- In 2020/2021, the Nasdaq 100 surged for ~20 months/~90 weeks.
- In 2024, the Nasdaq 100 has now surged for ~20 months/~90 weeks from its October 2022 bottom into July 2024.
That ~20-month advance was split into two main segments…
- …advance from Oct. 2022 into July 2023
- …advance from October 2023 into July 2024… cyclic parallels.
Reinforcing this wave timing symmetry, the Nasdaq-100 just fulfilled corresponding wave price symmetry – matching the magnitude of the 2020/21 advance.
As those stronger indexes are fulfilling multiple upside objectives, the weaker ones – in particular the DJTA & S+P Midcap 400 – have been following their daily & intra-month downtrends while selling off toward monthly support and into mid-month.
At the moment, the Russell 2000 is in neutral territory – waiting for new signals in either direction.
One other index was discussed last month (June 12th) when it was poised for an additional ~2-week decline into cycle lows in late-June, when its weekly trend & 21 MAC structure would likely spur a new rally.
6-12-24 – “Meanwhile, the DJUA – the index more closely linked to movement of interest rates and/or the Bond market (both bottomed in October ’23 after declining from March/April 2022) – is in a similar setup on a daily basis but a much different one on a weekly basis.
As a result, both are poised to see 1 – 2 week sell-offs but the DJUA could be pulling back to rising support near 880/DJUA …”
That rising support (weekly 21 High MAC) continued to rise and met DJUA price action around 900/DJUA on June 28/July 1st – as intermediate cycles were bottoming – and is in the process of reversing higher.
It also completed a textbook ‘a-b-c’ correction while testing its 2024 opening range (support for its prevailing intra-year uptrend). That correction is likely the wave ‘4’ of a potential 5-wave advance from its secondary low in February ’24. It closely matched the magnitude of its preceding wave ‘2’ correction (March/April ’24) – reinforcing the time and price for a multi-week low.
That should spur a rally back to – or above – its May 2024 high (~957/DJUA).
The prevailing intra-month uptrends in the S+P 500 and Nasdaq-100 – with the DJIA just joining in – could spur some additional upside in the short term.
1 – 3 month & 3 – 6 month traders could have exited a portion of long positions, anticipating a sell-off in the overall market.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are preparing for decisive peaks projected for July 2024, in sync with overall 17-Year Cycle analysis and parallels. The NQ-100 is reinforcing expectations for similarities to 2007, in line with the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks (successive highs in 1Q ‘24, July ‘24, and then October ’24 projected). Several timing indicators project a critical top for July 2024… and a sharp drop into August 2024! That peak is most likely now!!
A key ‘proxy’ or ‘cue’ stock (a stock that often gives advanced signs of shifts in a broader market) fulfilled a (multi-month) peak projected for June 17 – 21st at/near 140.0/NVDA. It is already pinpointing primary multi-month downside targets (below 97.0/NVDA)… that would involve a serious sell-off in this and other tech stocks leading into August ‘24.
A secondary high is projected for July 8 – 12th (now) and should usher in a larger sell-off in that proxy stock. That would be the ideal time for the NQ-100 to set a higher (divergent) high and enter a sharp sell-off into August 2024… in perfect sync with the 17-Year Cycle!
How Would Divergent Peak on July 8 – 12th Reinforce Outlook for July/August ’24 Decline?
Why Does 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Forecast Pivotal NQ + SP 500 Highs for July 2024?
Will This Corroborate the Projected 2025/26 Recession (& Stagflation) Cycle?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.