Bitcoin Projects Surge into November ’24 Cycle High. Significance?
10/03/24 – “Bitcoin has reached a critical decision point that could have 2 – 4 week ramifications and 2 – 4 month repercussions. It could impact how soon new highs are seen…
Instead of starting with the broader perspective and steadily honing the focus, it is better to approach this analysis in the opposite manner… beginning with daily & intra-month action.
Bitcoin rallied into late-September, fulfilling intra-month expectations, and then retreated for several days – neutralizing its daily uptrend multiple times in the process… ushering in the likely time for a low…
Until/unless these (negative) reversal signals are generated, Bitcoin remains in a positive 2 – 4 week and 1 – 3 month trend… The daily 21 MAC & MARC are reinforcing the significance of the current time frame – when a reversal higher is becoming increasingly likely… that could ultimately spur a rally into early-November ‘24 – the next phase of that cycle and the latest phase of the ~8-Month Cycle that has strongly influenced Bitcoin for the last few years.
Expanding the Perspective
Based on its weekly trend, weekly 21 MAC (which turned back up on September 23 – 27… another moderately-positive development), intermediate cycles, and overall wave structure, Bitcoin is also showing signs of bottoming on a multi-month basis.
That comes after it’s August 2024 low fulfilled the latest phase of a 10 – 11-month high-low-low-low-(low; July/August 2024) Cycle Progression… And that leads into a slightly-broader, 3 – 6 month outlook – including the perceived Elliott Wave structure and the frequently-cited ~16-month Cycle (that helped pinpoint the March 2024 high) and its ~8-Month half-cycle…
November 2024 Cycles
A few key cycles converge in Nov 2024. The most significant is the ~8-Month Cycle – the half-cycle of the ~16-Month Cycle that helped pinpoint the November 2022 low – the 4th phase of a ~16-month low-low-low-low Cycle Progression. That projected a 16-month advance into March 2024 – when a 3 – 6 month peak was anticipated.
Reinforcing that March 2024 cycle high was an ~8-month Cycle Progression, developing at the midpoints of the overriding ~16-Month Cycle. It began with a secondary high in March 2022 that was followed by an ~8-month decline into the multi-year low set in November ‘22.
From there, it created an ~8-month rally – into July 2023 – and an ~8-month high-high cycle leading into the March 2024 peak. That projects a subsequent high in November 2024 – an ~8-month low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
From a wave perspective, Bitcoin is providing some textbook examples of the Elliott Wave principle, including the alternation of waves (flat correction followed by zig-zag correction) and wave symmetry (successive ~21-week corrections), reinforcing the August ‘24 low as a bottom…
The Weekly Re-Lay will continue to update short- and intermediate-term analysis related to Bitcoin & Ether.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Bitcoin is reinforcing its July/August ’24 lows and is projecting a surge to new (all-time) highs leading into November 2024. This reinforces the overall outlook for 2024 and is providing powerful clues about related markets and events. With Gold cycles peaking in late-October ’24, the ideal time for an accelerated surge is after that (see ‘Rock, Paper, Scissors’ analogy).
(Refer to October 3, 2024 The Bridge – Currency War: Rock, Paper Scissors and other special updates and reports for additional analysis.)
What Would a Bitcoin Surge into mid-November ‘24 Reveal?
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What Would a November 2024 Bitcoin Peak Portend for 2025 Cycles?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.