Stocks Fulfilling Projected Rally into ~October 18th; S+P Midcap 400 Projects Higher High in Late-November ’24
10/14/24 – “Stock indexes remain positive and are reinforcing the outlook for a quick surge into October 17 – 21st with the DJIA & S+P Midcap 400 leading the way after tracing out textbook daily trend and 21 MAC sequences. A pair of highs could be seen – first on Oct 17 – 21st and then in late-Oct/early-Nov – as various cycles converge. That coincides with a potentially divisive US Election and the maturity of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks
The DJTA corroborated that by tracing out an entire ‘a-b-c’ decline without turning its daily trend down, a sign that signaled it was poised to embark on a new rally into late-October – when its ~1.5-month cycle recurs – or early-Nov. (An initial high is still likely on October 17/18th.)
The outlook for an initial surge into mid-October aligns with the primary (geometric) cycle in the DJIA that comes back into play in the coming week. A ~3-month cycle dates back to its mid-October ’22 low and subsequent highs in January, April & July 2023.
That was followed by a ~3-month decline into the middle half of October ’23 – when another 6 – 12 month bottom was set. From there, the DJIA traced out a ~3-month/~13-week low – low (Jan 17) – low (Apr 17) – high (July 17/18, ’24) Cycle Progression – projecting a future peak for the middle of October… ideally October 17/18, 2024.
The successive, mid-October (’22 & ’23) lows also project a rally into mid-October ’24 (12-month/360-degree low-low-(high) Cycle Progression). A corroborating ~10-week low-low-(high) and ~5-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression also projected rallies into October 14 – 18, ’24.
Meanwhile, the NQ-100 maintains wave targets near the July ’24 peak – around 21,200/NQZ. New monthly resistance concurs and is reinforced by the recent lows creating an Intermediate LLH in the same vicinity. Wave objectives are reinforcing that target range.
This could be showing that stocks will see a rally into October 14 – 21st (greatest synergy on Oct 17, 18 & 21) followed by a brief pullback and then a late-month rally to divergent highs.
The S+P Midcap 400 has broken out higher in fulfillment of ongoing analysis. It remains on track for a future peak on October 24 – 31st.
The IDX has set recent intra-month highs on June 24, July 31, August 26 & September 27 – all in the final days of the month. That ~1-month high-high-high-high Cycle Progression could/should produce a subsequent high on October 24 – 31st. But that might just be a precursor high…
Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is on the horizon. Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24. If a multi-month high were set at that time, it would fulfill the following cycles & timing indicators:
- ~13-month/~56-week low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~8-month/34 – 35-week high (late-March ’22) – high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-March ’24) – (high; late-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression.
- ~4-month/~17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~2-month/~8 – 9-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~15-week low-low-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~5-week low-low-low-high*- (high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression… *if the S+P Midcap rallies into October 14 – 18th.
- Back-to-back-to-back-to-back ~13-month rallies (Dec ’18 – Jan ’20, Mar ’20 – Apr ’21, June ’22 – July ’23, Oct ’23 – November 2024).
So it is possible, if it emerges as expected, that a late-October peak would only be a penultimate one… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24…
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing intermediate bottoming signals with Bitcoin turning its intra-month trend up. That increases the likelihood for rallies into November 2024 – the next phase of the ~8-month (& midpoint of the ~16-month) Cycle Progressions that timed the March ’24 top.
Bitcoin could see a quick surge to [reserved for subscribers]…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes remain strong and are reinforcing future cycles in mid-October, late-October & late-November 2024. Early-October buy signals remain in force and should spur surges (initially) into ~October 18th. The NQ-100 is showing signs of lagging that could impact the levels for the next significant peak, which is likely to occur near 21,200/NQZ.
In contrast, the S+P Midcap 400 and related indexes are showing that small and mid-cap stocks are likely to lead a surge into late-November ’24. The 17-Year Cycle remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities but price action needs to hone when and where that is most likely.
In the near-term, a multi-week high is likely on October 17/18th after additional upside. The ~5-week/~37-day cycle portends a subsequent peak on/around November 22/25th – when a myriad of cycles peak in the S+P Midcap 400. Late-October action should corroborate.
Interestingly, Bitcoin recently corroborated this outlook – generating additional buy signals and projecting a surge into November 2024. See October 3, 2024 issue of The Bridge for details.
Why is S+P Midcap 400 Poised to Lead Surge into Late-November?
What Does the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Portend?
Will This Coincide with Election Cycles and the Outlook for US Dollar?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.