S+P Midcap 400 Projects Advance into Late-November ’24; NQ-100 Targets 21,200/NQ for Top.
10/11/24 – “Stock Indices remain positive with the DJIA & S+P Midcap 400 leading a new surge in which the Nasdaq-100 could/should retest its high and potentially set a double top. A pair of highs could be seen… That coincides with a potentially divisive US Election and the maturity of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks
The DJTA corroborated that by tracing out an entire ‘a-b-c’ decline without turning its daily trend down, a sign that signaled it was poised to embark on a new rally into late-October – when its ~1.5-month cycle recurs – or early-Nov. (An initial high is still likely on October 17/18th.)
The likelihood for a new rally in October aligns with the primary (geometric) cycle in the DJIA that comes back into play in mid-October 2024. A ~3-month cycle dates back to its mid-October ’22 bottom and subsequent peaks in January, April & July 2023.
That was followed by a ~3-month decline into the middle half of October ’23 – when another 6 – 12 month bottom was set. From there, the DJIA traced out a ~3-month/~13-week low – low (Jan 17) – low (Apr 17) – high (July 17/18, ’24) Cycle Progression – projecting a future peak for the middle of October… ideally October 17/18, 2024.
The successive, mid-October (’22 & ’23) lows also project a rally into mid-October ’24. A corroborating ~10-week low-low-(high) and ~5-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression also projected rallies into October 14 – 18, ’24.
Meanwhile, the NQ-100 maintains wave targets near the July ’24 peak – around 21,200/NQZ. New monthly resistance concurs and is reinforced by the recent lows creating an Intermediate LLH in the vicinity. [A few key tech stocks possess uncanny synergy of cycles that converge on Nov 4 – 8, 2024 – portending a (likely) decisive peak at that time.]
This could be showing that stocks will see a rally into October 14 – 21st (greatest synergy on Oct 17, 18 & 21) followed by a brief pullback and then a late-month rally… The S+P Midcap 400 has broken out higher in fulfillment of ongoing analysis…
Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is on the horizon.
Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24. If a multi-month high were set at that time, it would fulfill the following cycles & timing indicators:
- ~13-month/~56-week low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~8-month/34 – 35-week high (late-March ’22) – high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-March ’24) – (high; late-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression.
- ~4-month/~17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~2-month/~8 – 9-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~15-week low-low-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~5-week low-low-low-high*- (high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression… *if the S+P Midcap rallies into October 14 – 18th.
- Back-to-back-to-back-to-back ~13-month rallies (Dec ’18 – Jan ’20, Mar ’20 – Apr ’21, June ’22 – July ’23, Oct ’23 – November 2024).
So it is possible, if it emerges as expected, that a late-October peak would only be a penultimate one… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes remain strong and are reinforcing future cycles in mid-October, late-October & late-November 2024. The NQ-100 is showing signs of lagging that could impact the levels for the next significant peak, which is likely to occur near 21,200/NQZ. In contrast, the S+P Midcap 400 and related indexes are showing that small and mid-cap stocks are likely to lead a surge into late-November ’24.
The 17-Year Cycle remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities but price action needs to hone when and where that is most likely.
Many indicators are projecting a new rally into October 17/18th – when a multi-week high is likely. The ~5-week/~37-day cycle portends a subsequent peak on/around November 22/25th – when a myriad of cycles peak in the S+P Midcap 400. Late-October action should corroborate.
How are Cycle Highs in Mid-October & late-November ’24 Connected?
What Does the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Peaks Portend?
Will This Coincide with Election Cycles and the Outlook for US Dollar?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.