S+P Midcap Reinforces Outlook for Surge into ~November 25th; NQ-100 Could Peak Early
11/06/24 – “Stock Indices skyrocketed today on Election results after the NQ-100 had neutralized its daily uptrend multiple times – while retracing into November 4th – but not turning that daily trend down, signaling a low. The October 31st plunges, in several indexes, had them attacking daily HLS levels (extreme downside targets) and reinforcing the likelihood for daily lows on Nov 4/5th.
The DJIA spiked lower into November 4th – retesting intermediate support and fulfilling daily cycles while remaining in a weekly uptrend.
The S+P 500 retested its October low (5724/ESZ) and late-August/early-September highs (‘resistance turned into support’ at 5725 – 5730/ESZ) and held… during the week after testing and holding its weekly HLS (extreme downside target).
It dropped right to its rising weekly 21 High MAC – in what appeared to be a wave ‘4’ of a ~3-month uptrend (from its early-August ’24 low) – and surged today, validating that wave structure and entering wave ‘5’.
The index that was expected to lead a new rally – at some point in November – is the one that remained in the most bullish structure and setup in recent weeks.
The S+P Midcap 400 has been steadily showing signs of strength, leading into what is likely/expected to be a multi-month (or longer) peak in late-November ’24. That was reiterated throughout October and was reinforced by the action of late-October/early-Nov.
The October 9, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert (and corresponding IT Updates) described the outlook this way:
10-09-24 – “Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is on the horizon. Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24.
If a multi-month high were set at that time, it would fulfill the following cycles & timing indicators:
- ~13-month/~56-week low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~8-month/34 – 35-week high (late-March ’22) – high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-March ’24) – (high; late-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression.
- ~4-month/~17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~2-month/~8 – 9-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~15-week low-low-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~5-week low-low-low-high*- (high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression… *if the S+P Midcap rallies into October 14 – 18th.
- Back-to-back-to-back-to-back ~13-month rallies (Dec ’18 – Jan ’20, Mar ’20 – Apr ’21, June ’22 – July ’23, Oct ’23 – November 2024).
So it is possible, if it emerges as expected, that a late-October peak would only be a penultimate one… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.
The S+P Midcap 400 remains in a bullish setup after setting multiple peaks at 3120 – 3140/IDX. The latest spurred a brief pullback that twice neutralized (but did not turn down) the daily uptrend while setting successive lows at the rising daily 21 High MAC and reversing higher repeatedly (without turning the intra-month trend down).
All those factors are likely to spur a breakout higher that could see a quick, accelerated rally into October 17 – 21st.. On a 1 – 2 month basis, the NQ-100 has wave objectives converging near the July ’24 peak – around 21,200/NQZ.” — October 9, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
It validated the late-November cycles with an initial peak on October 17/18th, reinforcing those future cycles in late-November ’24. Similar cycles have been unfolding in the DJ Transportation Average, which also remains on track for a likely 3 – 6 month (or longer) peak in November 2024. They include:
- ~8-month high-high-high-(high; November ’24) Cycle Progression
- ~12.5-month* low-low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
- [More precise *56-week low-low-(high; November 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression]
- 17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
- ~5-week low-low-high-(high; November 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression**
**The DJIA has a similar ~5-week/~37-day low-low-high-(high; Nov 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression coming into play at that time with November 22/25th representing the daily version of that cycle. Now that it has confirmed a multi-week low, a multi-week peak is likely at that time.
In the interim, intermediate cycles in several tech stocks – discussed in previous October analysis – portend an important peak by/on November 8th. The October 11, 2024 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update described the outlook this way:
10-11-24 – “Stock Indices remain positive with the DJIA & S+P Midcap 400 leading a new surge in which the Nasdaq-100 could/should retest its high and potentially set a double top. A pair of highs could be seen – first on Oct 17 – 21st… The DJTA corroborated that by tracing out an entire ‘a-b-c’ decline without turning its daily trend down, a sign that signaled it was poised to embark on a new rally…
The likelihood for a new rally in October aligns with the primary (geometric) cycle in the DJIA that comes back into play in mid-October 2024… Meanwhile, the NQ-100 maintains wave targets near the July ’24 peak – around 21,200/NQZ… and is reinforced by the recent lows creating an Intermediate LLH in the vicinity. [A few key tech stocks possess uncanny synergy of cycles that converge on Nov 4 – 8, 2024 – portending a (likely) decisive peak at that time.]
This could be showing that stocks will see a rally into October 14 – 21st (greatest synergy on Oct 17, 18 & 21) followed by a brief pullback… The S+P Midcap 400 has broken out higher in fulfillment of ongoing analysis… this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is on the horizon.
Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.” — October 11, 2024 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update
Those stocks… could peak at the same time the NQ-100 is testing its ultimate upside target near 21,200/NQZ. Watch the next two days for additional clues.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes bottomed in sync with cycle lows on November 4/5th and have begun projected November surge. DJTA is among diverse indexes projecting rally into ~November 25th while NQ-100 is poised to peak earlier (near 21,200/NQZ).
The S+P Midcap 400 and related indexes are still projected to lead a new surge into late-November ’24 – when a more significant peak is a higher probability. November 22/25th is the greatest synergy of cycles but price action will need to clarify if/when a late-November top is forming. The 17-Year Cycle also remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities.
How High Could November Surge Reach?
Why is S+P Midcap 400 Poised to Lead Surge into Late-November?
Is Russell 2000 Range Target Revealing Clues?
Will NQ-100 Peak Sooner??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.