S+P Midcap Poised to Lead Surge into ~November 25th; Other Indexes Concur
11/06/24 – “Stock Indices skyrocketed on Election results after the NQ-100 had neutralized its daily uptrend multiple times – while retracing into November 4th – but not turned that daily trend down. The October 31st plunges, in several indexes, had them attacking daily HLS levels (extreme downside targets) and reinforcing the likelihood for daily lows on Nov 4/5th.
The DJIA spiked lower into November 4th – retesting intermediate support and fulfilling daily cycles while remaining in a weekly uptrend.
The S+P 500 retested its October low (5724/ESZ) and late-August/early-September highs (‘resistance turned into support’ at 5725 – 5730/ESZ) and held… during the week after testing and holding its weekly HLS (extreme downside target).
It dropped right to its rising weekly 21 High MAC – in what is likely a wave ‘4’ of a ~3-month uptrend (from its early-August ’24 low) – and surged today, validating that wave structure and entering wave ‘5’.
The index that was expected to lead a new rally – at some point in November – is the one that remained in the most bullish structure and setup in recent weeks.
The S+P Midcap 400 has been steadily showing signs of strength, leading into what is likely/expected to be a multi-month (or longer) peak in late-November ’24. That was reiterated throughout October and was reinforced by the action of late-October/early-November.
It validated the late-November cycles with an initial peak on October 17/18th, reinforcing those future cycles in late-November ’24. Similar cycles have been unfolding in the DJ Transportation Average, which also remains on track for a likely 3 – 6 month (or longer) peak in November 2024.
The late-November ’24 cycle highs – cited in that October 9th analysis and reiterated since then – are corroborated by similar cycles in the DJTA. They include:
- ~8-month high-high-high-(high; November ’24) Cycle Progression
- ~12.5-month* low-low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
- [More precise *56-week low-low-(high; November 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression]
- 17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
- ~5-week low-low-high-(high; November 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression**
**The DJIA has a similar ~5-week/~37-day low-low-high-(high; Nov 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression coming into play at that time with November 22/25th representing the daily version of that cycle. Now that it has confirmed a low, a peak is likely at that time.
In the interim, intermediate cycles in several tech stocks – discussed in previous October analysis – portend an important peak by/on November 8th. Those stocks include [reserved for subscribers] and could peak at the same time the NQ-100 is testing its ultimate upside target near 21,200/NQZ.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes bottomed in sync with cycle lows on November 4/5th and have begun likely November surge. DJTA is among diverse indexes projecting rally into ~November 25th while NQ-100 is poised to peak earlier (near 21,200/NQZ).
The S+P Midcap 400 and related indexes are still projected to lead a new surge into late-November ’24 – when a more significant peak is a higher probability. November 22/25th is the greatest synergy of cycles but price action will need to clarify if/when a late-November top is forming. The 17-Year Cycle also remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities.
How High Could November Surge Reach?
Why is S+P Midcap 400 Poised to Lead Surge into Late-November?
Is Russell 2000 Range Target Revealing Clues?
Will NQ-100 Peak Sooner??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.