DJIA & DJTA Corroborate S+P Midcap Outlook for Rally into November 22/25th; Election Reaction?
11/05/24 – “Stock Indices fulfilled the outlook for a drop into October 31st after initially peaking on October 18th, when a myriad of daily, weekly & monthly cycles – as well as the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks – all projected a decisive peak in the DJIA. The S+P also peaked on Oct 17/18th, in line with similar cycles…
The DJIA also completed an Intra-Month Inverted V Reversal lower (low at beginning of month, high at mid-month, lower low at month-end) on October 31st.
It would now take daily closes below 41,647/DJIA, 5724/ESZ & 20,013/NQZ to turn the respective intra-month trends down and signal another decline. Until that occurs, a 1 – 2 week correction has unfolded but has not yet been elevated to a higher magnitude decline.
The action in the DJIA & NQ-100 needs to be contrasted with cycle expectations in other indexes – most notably the S+P Midcap 400 and the DJ Transportation Average…
Both of those indexes argue for another round of (likely divergent) highs in the second half of November ‘24… That has been the outlook for a couple months and was elaborated in the October 9, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert (and corresponding IT Updates):
“Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is on the horizon. Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24.
If a multi-month high were set at that time, it would fulfill the following cycles & timing indicators:
- ~13-month/~56-week low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~8-month/34 – 35-week high (late-March ’22) – high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-March ’24) – (high; late-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression.
- ~4-month/~17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~2-month/~8 – 9-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~15-week low-low-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
- ~5-week low-low-low-high*- (high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression… *if the S+P Midcap rallies into October 14 – 18th.
- Back-to-back-to-back-to-back ~13-month rallies (Dec ’18 – Jan ’20, Mar ’20 – Apr ’21, June ’22 – July ’23, Oct ’23 – November 2024).
So it is possible, if it emerges as expected, that a late-October peak would only be a penultimate one… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.
The S+P Midcap 400 remains in a bullish setup after setting multiple peaks at 3120 – 3140/IDX. The latest spurred a brief pullback that twice neutralized (but did not turn down) the daily uptrend while setting successive lows at the rising daily 21 High MAC and reversing higher repeatedly (without turning the intra-month trend down).
All those factors are likely to spur a breakout higher that could see a quick, accelerated rally into October 17 – 21st.. On a 1 – 2 month basis, the NQ-100 has wave objectives converging near the July ’24 peak – around 21,200/NQZ.”
Stock Indexes did rally into October 17/18th, when many of them set multi-week peaks. A quick, sharp sell-off into October 31st was projected. With that being fulfilled, it turns focus to a trio of factors coming into play in November:
- Intra-month trends
- Late-November cycle highs
- Intervening (~November 8th) cycles
The intra-month trends will not turn down until daily closes below the November 1st – 5th lows (first three trading days of new month). Conversely, they will not turn up until daily closes above the November 1st – 5th highs. Tomorrow’s action is likely to clarify that.
The late-November ’24 cycle highs – cited in that October 9th analysis and reiterated since then – are corroborated by similar cycles in the DJTA. That includes:
- ~8-month high-high-high-(high; November ’24) Cycle Progression
- ~12.5-month* low-low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
- [More precise *56-week low-low-(high; November 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression]
- 17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
- ~5-week low-low-high-(high; November 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression**
**The DJIA has a similar ~5-week/~37-day low-low-high-(high; Nov 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression coming into play at that time with November 22/25th representing the daily version of that cycle… a normal Cycle Progression would project a high (higher or lower) at that time.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes sold off into cycle lows on November 4/5th. The action in DJIA & DJTA is now reinforcing the ongoing outlook for small- and mid-cap stock indexes…
The S+P Midcap 400 and related indexes are still projected to lead a new surge into late-November ’24 – when a more significant peak is a higher probability. November 22/25th is the greatest synergy of cycles but price action will need to clarify if/when a late-November top is forming. The 17-Year Cycle also remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities.
How High Could November Surge Reach?
Why is S+P Midcap 400 Poised to Lead Surge into Late-November?
Is Russell 2000 Range Target Revealing Clues?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.