S+P Midcap & Russell 2000 Poised to Lead Topping Process; November 25th Peak Likely!
11/21/24 – “Stock Indices are on track for a second peak at any time. It is now Decision Time! Based on daily trend indicators, the early-week action projected a 2 – 3 day rally starting November 19th. That has been fulfilled and ushers in the 2-day period cited in a number of previous updates as the ideal time for a final peak.
That corroborates the outlook for a pair of divergent highs in November – the first on Nov 11/12th and the second around Nov 22/25th. That was reiterated last week, corroborating ongoing analysis elaborated the week prior – all with the focus on the days surrounding November 22/25th.
Daily trend patterns – in indexes like the DJIA & NQ-100 – now reinforce that potential.
Here is a sample of analysis from the past couple weeks:
11-13-24 – “It is also possible the indexes provide another ‘rerun’ – creating a divergent pair of highs on Nov 11/12th & Nov 22/25th.
The first sign of a reversal lower would be daily closes below the November 7th lows. Until that occurs, the trends remain up and could still spur additional spike highs.” — November 13, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
11-06-24 – “The October 31st plunges, in several indexes, had them attacking daily HLS levels (extreme downside targets) and reinforcing the likelihood for daily lows on Nov 4/5th.
The DJIA spiked lower into November 4th – retesting intermediate support and fulfilling daily cycles while remaining in a weekly uptrend.
The S+P 500 retested its October low (5724/ESZ) and late-August/early-September highs (‘resistance turned into support’ at 5725 – 5730/ESZ) and held… during the week after testing and holding its weekly HLS (extreme downside target).
It dropped right to its rising weekly 21 High MAC – in what is likely a wave ‘4’ of a ~3-month uptrend (from its early-August ’24 low) – and surged today, validating that wave structure and entering wave ‘5’.
The index that was expected to lead a new rally – at some point in November – is the one that remained in the most bullish structure and setup in recent weeks.
The S+P Midcap 400 has been steadily showing signs of strength, leading into what is likely/expected to be a multi-month (or longer) peak in late-November ’24. That was reiterated throughout October and was reinforced by the action of late-October/early-November.
It validated the late-November cycles with an initial peak on October 17/18th, reinforcing those future cycles in late-November ’24. Similar cycles have been unfolding in the DJ Transportation Average, which also remains on track for a likely 3 – 6 month (or longer) peak in November 2024.
The late-November ’24 cycle highs – cited in that October 9th analysis and reiterated since then – are corroborated by similar cycles in the DJTA. They include:
- ~8-month high-high-high-(high; November ’24) Cycle Progression
- ~12.5-month* low-low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
- [More precise *56-week low-low-(high; November 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression]
- 17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression
- ~5-week low-low-high-(high; November 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression**
**The DJIA has a similar ~5-week/~37-day low-low-high-(high; Nov 18 – 25, ’24) Cycle Progression coming into play at that time with November 22/25th representing the daily version of that cycle. Now that it has confirmed a low, a peak is likely at that time.” — November 6, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
And all the November ’24 analysis was restating what had been described in early-October ’24 and the weeks that followed – projecting a final peak to stretch into late-November 2024… in at least one of the stock indexes that are discussed in these publications (ideally, the S+P Midcap 400):
10-09-24 – “Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is on the horizon. Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24. If a multi-month high were set at that time, it would fulfill the following cycles & timing indicators:
~13-month/~56-week low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
~8-month/34 – 35-week high (late-March ’22) – high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-March ’24) – (high; late-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression.
~4-month/~17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
~2-month/~8 – 9-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
~15-week low-low-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
~5-week low-low-low-high*- (high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression… *if the S+P Midcap rallies into October 14 – 18th.
Back-to-back-to-back-to-back ~13-month rallies (Dec ’18 – Jan ’20, Mar ’20 – Apr ’21, June ’22 – July ’23, Oct ’23 – November 2024).
So it is possible, if it emerges as expected, that a late-October peak would only be a penultimate one… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.
The S+P Midcap 400 remains in a bullish setup… The latest spurred a brief pullback that twice neutralized (but did not turn down) the daily uptrend while setting successive lows at the rising daily 21 High MAC and reversing higher repeatedly (without turning the intra-month trend down).
All those factors are likely to spur a breakout higher that could see a quick, accelerated rally into October 17 – 21st… On a 1 – 2 month basis, the NQ-100 has wave objectives converging near the July ’24 peak – around 21,200/NQZ.” — October 9, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alert
The S+P 400 remains the index in focus… with the greatest chance of retesting its recent highs. It would not turn its daily trend down until a daily close below the November 15th low. Until that occurs, it is capable of spiking to new highs. Other indexes have signaled that multi-week/multi-month peaks are likely intact.
With all of these indexes reaching multi-month upside targets (or extreme targets), a final peak could take hold at any time and fulfill the multi-month and multi-year cycles previously described. The potential for a large correction is now increasing with each passing day as a result of most extreme upside targets – in price and time – being fulfilled in diverse stocks and indexes.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are adhering to the October/November outlook and poised to spike higher into November 22/25th when the S+P Midcap & Russell 2000 portend decisive peaks as they attack major upside range-trading targets near 3400/IDX & 2460/QR. The 17-Year Cycle also remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities.
In early-October, the S+P Midcap 400 was projected to lead an overall surge into late-November ’24 – when a more significant peak is a higher probability (though price action would need to validate). The greatest synergy of those cycles – reiterated many times in our publications – is on November 22/25th and represents the ideal time for the small and midcap indexes to set pivotal peaks.
Stocks Positive into October 17/18th, Then Late-November; S+P 400 to Lead Way Higher
Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying a pair of likely time frames when subsequent sell-offs are more likely… and when future lows are expected.
Why are S+P Midcap & Russell 2000 Likely to Peak on/around November 25, 2024?
Is Russell 2000 Range Target Signaling Déjà vu to November 2021?
How are Major Range Targets in DJTA, IDX AND RUT Projecting a Top?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.