Gold, Silver & XAU Pull Back; Setting Multi-Week Lows… Rally into late-Oct Likely!
10-09-24 – “Commodity inflation (/deflation) cycles bottomed in September 2024 – ushering in the time for a strong rally in several markets. This had been a topic of analysis since December 2023 – when multiple cycles projected a multi-month bottom that should lead to future lows in July ’24 & September ’24.
That was discussed throughout this year and again reiterated in the August ’24 INSIIDE Track:.. That was reinforced by other monthly cycles in Crude Oil – also projecting a decisive bottom for September 2024. They were discussed during the month of August…
The GSCI bottomed in September 2024 – right on schedule. Reinforcing all the cycles projecting a low at that time, the GSCI also reinforced intermediate and long-term range-trading support (see 2023 & early-2024 Weekly Re-Lay Alerts) by spiking down to its August & December 2021 lows – which were set at the level of the preceding May & October 2018 highs (resistance turned into support) – near 505.0.
On a multi-year basis, the GSCI could also be corroborating a 46 – 47-month high-high-high-(high; 1Q 2026) Cycle Progression by declining for exactly 2/3 of that cycle – setting up for a 50% rebound in time into 1Q 2026 (2/3 cycle down, 1/3 cycle up = 50%).
There is a lot more to this commodity inflationary outlook, that reinforces the cyclic potential for stagflation in 2025 or 2026, that has already been discussed… and will continue to be addressed.
Keep in mind that PPI, CPI & PCE data are lagging and often weighted to hide some of these factors, so the Oct 11 & 12th reports could be ‘deflationary’ on the surface. That could be a factor that reinforces the 1 – 2-week outlooks in some key markets…
Gold & Silver turned their intra-month trends down… Both have dropped to their rising daily 21 Low MACs but Silver would not turn its daily trend down – and confirm a multi-week peak – until a daily close below 30.34/SIZ. Until that occurs, Silver maintains the potential for higher highs in the coming weeks.
Gold attacked & held its daily HLS, portending a multi-week low by Oct 11. Silver retraced 50% of its Sept/Oct rally, initially bottoming where it previously peaked in late-August (resistance turned into support ~30.50/SIZ). Those factors reinforce the significance of the recent low and the daily trend pattern.
A potential wave setup concurs.
In September ’22 – May ’23, Silver rallied in a 5-wave structure. That completed wave I on a larger scale. After a ~5-month correction (wave II), Silver embarked on a new 5-wave advance (with a clear 5-wave, wave ‘3’ in Jan – May ’24, as part of that) that was minimally fulfilled with Silver’s recent peak.
However, a rally to new highs would provide a clearer fulfillment of that wave potential – with a more distinct wave 5 of III peak. If new highs are still in store, Silver’s latest pullback (wave ‘iv’ of that wave ‘5’ rally of that overall wave ‘III’ advance) should not close below the previous (wave ‘i’ of wave ‘5’) high close at 30.45/SIZ.
While this Elliott Wave description might be confusing, the bottom line is that this wave structure reinforces the range-trading support just discussed… adding synergy to this pivotal support level.
Tomorrow’s action could determine whether a multi-month peak is taking form… or whether additional new highs are still in the offing.
The XAU & HUI turned their daily & intra-month trends down, spurring declines into October 9th – the latest phase of a ~1-month/23 trading day low (July 2) – low (August 5) – low (Sept 6) – (low; October 9) Cycle Progression… that could spur a rally into xxxx (when a contrasting high-high-high-high Cycle Progression also projects a peak).
The XAU & HUI attacked their respective weekly HLS levels (extreme downside weekly targets) on October 4th, portending a subsequent 1 – 2 month low in the ensuing week(s). While the XAU could still see a rally above 171.00 in October, it might wait until later in the month to reach that objective.”
The 40-Year Cycle of Currency War continues to impact Gold and its relationship to the US Dollar. Gold fulfilled major cycles in Sept/Oct 2022 when it perpetuated a 7-Year Cycle of consistent lows (2001 – 2008 – 2015 – 2022) that coincided with the onset of a new 40-Year Cycle of Currency War AND 80-Year Cycle of War…
Outlook 2022/23: A New Currency War Begins
Outlook 2023: A New Currency War & Inflation
40-Year Cycle – Dollar Dominion, Dilemma & Demise
Late-2023 was projected to reaffirm this analysis when Middle East War Cycles were projected to reignite (in October 2023… exactly when war broke out)…
Middle East War Cycles Collide in Late-2023
In the subsequent months, Gold powerfully validated that cycle and projected a breakout surge in the months/year to follow the early-October 2023 low…
Solar, Seismic & Gold Intensity Cycles
All that sets the stage for what has been projected for Gold (as well as the US Dollar, Bitcoin, etc.) in 4Q 2024… and throughout 2025. The current phase of that outlook should spur a final rally in Gold – leading into late-October 2024 when multi-month & multi-year cycles converge. That will likely time a 3 – 6 month peak and a November/December ’24 correction in Gold & Silver. What then?
See current publications for the most updated analysis.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.