Stock Sell Signals Portend Acceleration Lower on December 16 – 19th; DJIA Targets ~41,800!
12/14/24 – “Stock indexes remain divergent with the NQ-100 moving higher (and now matching the magnitudes of the prior IDX, QR & DJTA rallies) as most other indexes move lower from their late-November peaks. The IDX, DJTA & QRH peaked precisely on Nov 25th – fulfilling the past two months’ outlooks – and have since sold off. Additional selling is expected in the coming week…
Stock Indices are expanding their divergence with the S+P Midcap 400, DJTA & Russell 2000 fulfilling the multi-week/multi-month outlook for a peak on November 25th followed by a multi-week decline. Meanwhile, the NQ-100 and a dwindling handful of tech stocks have extended rallies into the first half of December.
Even 2024’s ‘tech darling’ – NVDA – peaked on Nov 7th (highest daily close) and created an intraday spike high on Nov 21st… and has since declined. Based on its daily 21 AND 40 MACs, that stock turned negative and is entering its most vulnerable period from a technical perspective.
The DJIA, DJTA, Russell 2K & S+P Midcap have all sold off and given negative signals basis their daily 21 MACs… providing initial validation to the 4Q 2024 outlook for final 2024 rallies from early-October into late-November ’24.
All three surged right to multi-month range-trading targets (3400/IDX, 17,600/DJTA & 2460/QR) – and peaked during the Nov 22/25th target cycle.
The DJIA topped while fulfilling a ~4-week (25 – 28 day) low-low-low-(high) and a ~16-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and was projected to see an initial drop into Dec 16 – 19th… as part of a multi-week drop to 41,600 – 41,800/DJIA.
The S+P 500 initially topped while fulfilling daily cycles and in line with multiple resistance & target levels at 6173 – 6178/ESH. The NQ-100 has been playing catch-up and has now rallied 10.8% from its October low as it attacks its Intra-month PLLR at ~22,150/NQH… it could spur a drop to ~20,500/NQH.
The DJTA has plunged and is entering a pivotal week when its weekly trend could turn down with a weekly close below 16,705/DJTA.
Stock Indices have diverged since Nov 25th with the NQ-100 rallying to new highs (and nearly matching the Oct/Nov ’24 % gains of the DJTA, IDX & QRH) as the majority of stocks and indexes declined. They are entering the final days of this initial down cycle (Nov 25th – Dec 18/19th) and could see additional selling to begin the week.
The S+P 500 could be the next to confirm a downward reversal (DJIA, DJTA, QR & IDX have already done so) with a daily close below 6103/ESH. That would turn the daily AND intra-month trends down and project a quick drop to [reserved for subscribers].” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes triggered sell signals in late-Nov/early-Dec ’24 after fulfilling the October/November outlook for surges into November 25th when the S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 were projected to set multi-month peaks (near major upside range-trading targets at ~3400/IDX, ~17,600 & ~2460/QR). They perfectly fulfilled those projections – both price AND time – consuming the final upside potential for 4Q 2024. That ushered in a dangerous 3 – 4 week period with its most precarious period on December 16 – 20th.
Stocks Positive into October 17th/18th, Then Late-November; S+P 400 to Lead Way Higher
The DJIA peaked shortly after and quickly triggered new sell signals. The 17-Year Cycle also remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities with the final weeks of 2024 representing a precarious time for stocks. Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying a pair of likely time frames when the sharpest sell-offs are more likely… and when future lows are expected. The first one arrives in December ‘24!
Why are S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 Projecting Plunges From Nov 25th Cycle Peaks?
How is DJIA Projecting Multi-Week Drop to ~41,800/DJIA?
Why are Major Range Targets in DJTA, IDX AND RUT Validating a Multi-Month Top?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.