DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap Could Extend Rebounds into January 3/6th Before New Sell-off.
12/28/24 – “Stock indexes have consolidated after their initial plunge into Dec 19th that fulfilled the first phase of analysis following the Nov 25th peaks (in IDX, RUT, DJTA). A second decline is expected in January and could ultimately result in a drop into early-February. Bonds & Notes remain weak…
Stock Indices rebounded into Dec 26/27th – fulfilling short-term expectations after completing the first phase of their ‘post-peak’ outlook. That first phase involved a multi-week (likely multi-month) top on Nov 25th (the focus since early-October ’24) and an initial plunged into December 19th, when daily & weekly cycles projected a low.
In doing so, the DJIA plunged to within a few hundred points of its initial downside target as the S+P Midcap 400 – the focus of this analysis – plunged right to its range-trading support and 3 – 4 week downside target at 3100 – 3125/IDX. That came after it peaked precisely at its upside wave & range-trading target (~3400/IDX).
Its initial low – likely just a stopping point on the way to lower levels – also fulfilled a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support where the low before the previous (culminating) advance had taken hold in late-October. Ideally, it will spike a little higher (~3200/IDX) before declining again.
The DJTA, which also peaked right at its upside range target (~17,600), plummeted right back to its early-October low and range-trading support (~15,600) while turning its weekly trend down… the first to do so.
That is a lagging/confirming indicator, usually triggered near an initial low. (The S+P Midcap needs a weekly close below 3088/IDX to do the same.) It also closed below its weekly 21 Low MAC.
The Russell 2000, another index that peaked in lockstep with its upside range target (~2460/QR), plunged to its early-October low – retracing all of the pre- & post-election gains – before bottoming. All the indexes attacked weekly HLS levels (extreme downside targets) and then bounced… a second (January) decline is expected.
Stock Indices rebounded after plunging into Dec 19th, in lockstep with daily cycles and the signals triggered in early-Dec. The DJIA did rebound into Dec 26/27th – the latest phase of a 15 – 16 trading day (21 – 24 calendar day) Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint its Dec 4th high…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes have rebounded after plunging into December 19th while fulfilling sell signals triggered in late-Nov/early-Dec ’24. The S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 peaked on November 25th, in precise lockstep with repeatedly-published cycles and right at major upside targets (~3400/IDX, ~17,600 & ~2460/QR). That ushered in an initial 3 – 4 week danger zone with a sharp sell-off projected to plunge into ~December 19th.
A second ‘danger zone’ is expected to emerge in January. Larger-cap indexes were expected to peak on Dec 26/27th (which may have just taken hold) while smaller caps could wait until January 3/6th to complete rebounds and set secondary highs.
The 17-Year Cycle remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities. In line with that, the DJIA is already revealing parallels to late-2007/early-2008. Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying the next likely time frames when a second sharp sell-off is likely… in early-2025 (see publications for details).
How Does December 19th Low Corroborate January 2025 Outlook?
What Would Dec 26/27th Peak in DJIA Reveal For Subsequent Weeks/Months?
How Do 2025 Cycles of Attacks and Instability Reinforce This Potential?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.