Stock Sell Signals Nearing Fruition; December 19/20th Spike Low Likely.
12/18/24 – “Stock Indices are reacting to the latest Fed move… or at least to the latest Fed words, plunging in line with monthly, weekly & daily cycles. Except when the ‘actions’ surprise the markets – which is only a minority of the time – Fed ‘words’ are usually the focus, with traders meticulously dissecting what word or words changed in the latest Fed Statement.
While it should be no surprise – given all the data that has been released in the past ~6 weeks (since the previous Fed meeting) – that the Fed is looking to slow the pace and amount of rate cuts, the market still reacted as if this was new news.
In contrast, the market is doing exactly what cycles and a host of already-described technical indicators anticipated.
Stock indexes fulfilled 1 – 2 month upside targets and cycles on November 25th – as well as some multi-year cycles – adhering to the scenario described in early-October. The DJTA, Russell 2K & S+P Midcap all peaked right at their multi-month upside range (3400/IDX, 17,600/DJTA & 2460/QR) during the Nov 22/25th target cycle.
They generated multiple negative/sell signals in late-Nov/early-Dec and have consistently reinforced those signals in recent weeks.
The DJIA topped while fulfilling a ~4-week (25 – 28 day) low-low-low-(high) and a ~16-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and was projected to see an initial drop into Dec 16 – 19th… fulfilling the outlook for a multi-week drop to 41,600 – 41,800/DJIA.
Even 2024’s ‘tech darling’ – NVDA – peaked on Nov 7th (highest daily close) and created an intraday spike high on Nov 21st… and has since declined. Based on its daily 21 AND 40 MACs, that stock turned negative and entered its most vulnerable period (from a technical perspective) this week.
Since precisely fulfilling multi-month cycle highs on November 25th, the S+P Midcap 400 has declined on 12 out of the 16 days since then and already plunged to its first downside range-trading target (~3125/IDX). The DJTA has declined for 14 of those 16 days, dropping over 10% from its Nov 25th peak.
While the DJIA extended its decline to 10 days straight for the first time since 1974, the S+P advance/decline line has dropped for 12 days in a row.
Are these outliers?
Or a warning of underlying weakness in the overall market?
Even as the NQ-100 set new highs – on the backs of a handful of overheating stocks – the rest of the market has validated what was described in early-October (projecting a multi-pronged advance into November 22/25th followed by sharp declines).
Meanwhile, the DJIA is doing exactly what was forecast on December 7th when it was projected to see a sharp, multi-week drop into December 19th with a primary downside target at 41,600 – 41,800 (published while the DJIA was above 44,500):
12-07-24 – “The DJIA…peaked while fulfilling a ~4-week (25 – 28 day) low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and could see an initial drop into December 16 – 19th. A multi-week drop to 41,600 – 41,800/DJIA is becoming more likely.” — Dec 7, 2024 Weekly Re-Lay
The NQ-100 has its initial downside target at 20,200 – 20,500/NQH while the S+P 500 is targeted for a quick plunge to 5750 – 5775/ESH. These indexes are powerfully validating price targets and the outlook for an initial plunge into December 19th.
These downside price & time objectives are merely initial targets… [reserved for subscribers].” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are fulfilling sell signals triggered in late-Nov/early-Dec ’24 after fulfilling the October/November outlook for surges into November 25th when the S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 were projected to set multi-month peaks (near major upside range-trading targets at ~3400/IDX, ~17,600 & ~2460/QR). They perfectly fulfilled those projections – both price AND time – consuming the final upside potential for 4Q 2024. That ushered in a dangerous 3 – 4 week period with its most precarious period on December 16 – 20th. A second ‘danger zone’ is expected to emerge in January.
The DJIA peaked shortly after and quickly triggered new sell signals. The 17-Year Cycle also remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities. Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying a pair of likely time frames when the sharpest sell-offs were/are more likely… and when future lows are expected. The first one was from early-December into December 19th! The second is in early-2025 (see publications for details).
How Would December 19th (Blow-off?) Low Corroborate January 2025 Outlook?
Why are Major Range Targets in DJTA, IDX AND RUT Validating a Multi-Month Top?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.