Cryptos Plummet as Bitcoin Confirms Wave ‘5 of V’ Peak… Drop into early-March Likely.
02/06/25 – “The Dollar Index surged to its weekly LHR (weekly extreme upside target at 109.78/DXH) and monthly SPR (109.83/DXH) to begin the week and reversed lower without turning its daily trend up. That signaled a secondary high and projected a drop back to/below its late-January low…
The Euro is the inverse and retested its January low while attacking its weekly HLS and monthly support. Similar to the Dollar Index (inversely), the Euro recently completed its largest rally since August – and the largest of its entire decline from that peak – creating an intermediate 4-Shadow signal.
The new intra-month trend needs to clarify if the subsequent decline is recently complete… or still unfolding. A daily close above 1.0464/ECH is needed to turn the intra-month trend up and signal that a new multi-week low is in place…
A low at any time in this 2-month period would also perpetuate a 28 – 29-month high-high-low-low-(low; Jan/Feb ’25) Cycle Progression.
The Yen has produced initial signs of a low and confirmed a multi-week bottom. This was expected to spur a quick surge to .6640 – .6700/JYH, where multiple weekly & monthly LHRs converge with monthly resistance and upside wave targets. That is now unfolding and could produce an initial peak.
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping after Bitcoin set its highest daily close on January 21st – 6 months/180 degrees from a previous high daily close (July 22nd) – but did not close above its mid-December (intraday) high, ushering in the potential for a larger-magnitude wave ‘5’ peak in late-2024.
Meanwhile, Ether had peaked in December after retesting its March ’24 (secondary) peak – while completing a ~3-year low (4Q ’18) – high (4Q ’21) – (high; 4Q 2024) Cycle Progression and signaling a multi-month (or longer) peak. It has already plunged back to its 2024 lows and remains weak.
A quick, sharp drop was expected to unfold leading into this week (potentially extending into Feb 10th) and has been initially fulfilled with several cryptos plunging in recent weeks. More downside is still possible… and an overall decline into early-March ’25 is still expected.
On a broader basis, Cryptos are steadily confirming ongoing analysis for a surge in 4Q 2024 followed by a downturn beginning in January 2025. That was projected to spur an initial drop into the period of Feb 5 – 10th (many cryptos just plummeted into February 4th…) and ultimately into early-March ’25.
At its peak, Bitcoin fulfilled all of what was expected from a wave ‘V’ rally – a culminating advance that originated at the wave ‘IV’ low in July/August ‘24 in precise sync with its ~10-month high-low-low-low-(low; July/Aug ’24) Cycle Progression.
That August ’24 low spurred a multi-month surge into Nov/Dec 2024 – the same time of year in which Bitcoin set major highs in 2017 & 2021 and intervening lows in 2018 & 2022. An overlapping ~10.5-month/~43 – 46-week low-high-high-(high; Jan 3 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression allowed for a final divergent spike high in January, which took place on January 20/21st.
In doing so, Bitcoin fulfilled another form of wave similarity – rallying for the same magnitude ($55,00 – $60,000/BT) as it did in March ‘20 – April ‘21 AND in Nov ‘22 – March ‘24.
The peak near 108,000/BT precisely matched the magnitude of its previous (‘22 – ‘24) advance… a trio of similar advances that increased the likelihood for a major peak.
That crescendo was/is expected to time a major peak in cryptos and occurred precisely with a major bullish fundamental – the inauguration of President Trump.
Markets usually top on good news and bottom on bad news.
From the intraday peaks to Monday’s intraday low, Bitcoin dropped ~15% in two weeks.
However, that is nothing compared to the losses in other cryptos as Ether, Litecoin & XRP plunged ~45% from their highs, Solana gave up over 40% and Dogecoin has plummeted over 55%.
It sure looks like a 5th wave top is intact and a larger magnitude correction is underway, in sync with related analysis and cycles from 4Q 2024.”
Bitcoin is dropping as other cryptos plummet, further confirming Bitcoin’s December & January double peaks. The January high was a textbook (weak) wave 5 of V top that was set in perfect sync with MAJOR upside price targets as well as annual cycles (in December ’24). This projected/projects an overall decline into early-March ’25 as the first phase of a major shift.
Ether peaked in December ’24 and projected a sharp, multi-week drop to 2,200/ETH or lower… that should ultimately stretch into early-March ’25 (with an initial low forecast for early-February ’25). It just attacked that downside target, during the time when a 1 – 2 week low is most likely, so some consolidation is likely before a late-February sell-off.
On a broader basis, Bitcoin is capable of plunging back to 72,000 – 74,500/BT and stretching an overall multi-month decline into [see publications for details]. Multi-month cycles bottom in [reserved for subscribers].
What Does Bitcoin’s Wave 5 of V Peak Mean for 1Q 2025?
What Does Bitcoin’s Wave V Peak Mean for 2025?
Why are Other Cryptos So Much Weaker… & What Does That Portend?
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