Late-February (Projected) Bitcoin Plunge… and Unintended Consequences in 2025.
02/20/25 – “From a much broader perspective, there are some unusual (though limited) parallels between the current markets and a key aspect of the 1920’s and a different (key) aspect of the 1990’s. This was discussed in the Feb 19, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay Alert and will be addressed in the March ’25 INSIIDE Track.
Bonds & Notes are tracing out what could be a 3 – 6 month bottom – expected to lead to a contrasting peak in June/July ‘25. They dropped sharply into the middle part of February after rebounding to multi-week upside targets, trend objectives & declining 21 Low MACs in early-Feb.
They were/are expected to create secondary lows on Feb 14 – 21st, a cycle that has been initially fulfilled but not yet confirmed. It would take daily closes above 116-00/USH & 109-16/TYH to signal that new multi-week lows are in place and that any additional spike lows are very unlikely.
On a broader basis, Bonds & Notes have neutralized their weekly downtrends multiple times and need weekly closes above 117-01/USH & 110-00/TYH to turn those trends up.
If that occurs, it would also have them closing above their declining weekly 21 Low MACs – the start of a 21 MAC (bullish) reversal sequence… and increasing the likelihood for a multi-month rebound that should last (on balance) into mid-2025.
The Dollar Index likely set a secondary top after surging to its weekly LHR (weekly extreme upside target at 109.78/DXH) and monthly SPR (109.83/ DXH) to begin the month and reversing lower. It already fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for a multi-month (6 – 12 month) low in late-September/early-October ‘24 followed by a rally into mid-January 2025… ushering in a pivotal period.
After a quick plunge, the Dollar Index bounced into Feb 12th and right to its declining daily 21 High MAC before resuming its decline. It then bounced to its declining daily 21 Low MAC and reversed lower, confirming a new wave down.
The Dollar Index needs a weekly close below 106.44/DXH to turn its weekly trend down and confirm that a multi-month top is in place. (That could also usher in an initial multi-week low soon after… and a reactive 1 – 3 week bounce… before a larger decline.)
The Euro is the inverse and needs a weekly close above 1.0557/ECH to turn the weekly trend up and project an overall advance into April ’25 – the next phase of a ~34-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a .618 rally in time.
In the short term, a daily close above 1.0529/ECH is needed to show new strength.
The Yen remains in positive territory with an increasing probability for a larger surge – likely reaching .6950 – .6980/JYH – in the month of February. A weekly close above .6652/JYH is needed to turn the weekly trend up and confirm.
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping after Bitcoin set its highest daily close on January 21st – 6 months/180 degrees from a previous high daily close (July 22nd) – ushering in the potential for a larger-magnitude wave ‘5’ peak as it fulfilled a ~43 – 46-week low-high-high-(high; Jan 3 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression.
Ether preceded that top and many cryptos have lost 40 – 55% from their recent peaks.
A drop into early-March remains the primary objective for this decline. Ether & Solana have already plunged to their early-November ’25 lows. Could others follow suit?”
Bitcoin is poised for a sharp, late-February plunge in sync with the daily 21 MAC/21 MARC indicators that pinpoint a very vulnerable period in the coming weeks. At the same time, interest rates are signaling a peak as Bonds prepare for a larger rally. Is there a connection?
Bitcoin’s January high was a textbook (weak) wave 5 of V top that was set in perfect sync with MAJOR upside price targets as well as annual cycles. That projected/projects an overall decline into late-Feb/early-March ’25 as the first phase of a major shift. Could Bonds rally as Bitcoin plunges?
Ether (and other cryptos) peaked in December ’24 and projected a sharp, multi-week drop to 2,200/ETH or lower… that should ultimately stretch into early-March ’25 (with an initial low forecast for early-February ’25). It attacked that downside price target in early-February – when a 1 – 2 week low was most likely – so some consolidation was expected before a late-February sell-off.
On a broader basis, Bitcoin is capable of plunging back to 72,000 – 74,500/BT and stretching an overall multi-month decline into [see publications for details].
Could This Create Unintended Consequences as Bitcoin Losses Project Exponential Reverberations?? (See February 19, 2025 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: The Roaring ‘20s, the dot.com ‘90’s and…”)
Bitcoin’s multi-month cycles bottom in [reserved for subscribers].
What Does Bitcoin’s Wave 5 of V Peak Mean for 1Q 2025?
What Does Bitcoin’s Wave V Peak Mean for 2025?
How Would Late-February Sell-off Corroborate That?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.