Stocks Trigger Key Signals on January 10/13th; Project Multi-Week Bounce Before New Drop.
01/15/25 – “Stock indexes entered this week anticipating a spike low and subsequent rebound. They initially fulfilled that outlook but have not yet signaled how long that should hold. In either case, this week’s lows fulfilled intra-month trend patterns, weekly trend indicators, daily cycles, 4th wave of lesser degree support levels, wave targets and a very telling indicator that was triggered on January 13th.
Stocks dropped into the current week with the DJIA attacking its 1 – 2 month downside target near 41,800 as the NQ-100 bottomed right at monthly support while the S+P 500 completed a pair of downside wave objectives …
In December, the S+P 500’s initial decline was a plunge of ~300 points. After the subsequent rebound into Dec 26th, the S+P 500 began a second decline from its 6107/ESH peak.
The initial (minimum) downside target for that new decline was around 5807/ESH (~300 points).
A quick drop of ~233/ES points ensued, lasting from Dec 27th into January 2nd. A second bounce followed, leading into January 6th – when a trio of indexes projected a secondary peak. It topped at 6068/ESH and initiated a new decline.
The initial (minimum) downside target for that new decline was around 5835/ESH (~233 points).
Both those downside objectives created a minimum downside target range at 5807 – 5835/ESH that was reinforced by the July ’24 peak (resistance turned into support) at ~5840/ESH and the October ’24 low (4th wave of lesser degree support) at ~5800/ESH.
The S+P 500 spiked down to 5809/ESH on January 13th, fulfilling a myriad of minimum downside targets – in price and time. The DJIA, S+P Midcap, Russell 2000 & DJTA also bottomed at their October ’24 lows – a pivotal level of initial 2 – 3 month support.
Those initial/minimum downside targets, however, are not the most significant aspect of the January 10th action and January 13th spike lows…
More important, and more revealing, is what took place on those two days with a pair of confirmation/ culmination signals being generated.
On January 10, the DJIA, S+P 500 & Russell 2000 (as well as the DJ Composite Average that combines Industrial, Transport & Utility Averages) turned their weekly trends down – a sign of culmination on a near-term basis and confirmation on a broader basis.
The weekly trend reversal indicator usually times an initial multi-week low in the week(s) that follows that signal trigger. That reinforced several other timing indicators – all focused on the current week for the timing of an initial low and a (likely) reactive bounce.
From a broader wave perspective, there was an equally significant signal triggered on January 10/13.
That is when the DJIA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 exceeded the magnitudes of their late-July/early-August plunges – the largest declines of 2024.
As a result, those indexes (as well as the DJTA, which did the same thing in mid-December) triggered 4-Shadow Indicator signals on a 6 – 12-month basis.
In many ways, that indicator possesses parallels to the weekly trend indicator with three critical facets providing important portents:
- The most immediate portent is that both signals warn of an imminent (but only initial) low
- The second, correlating portent is that both signals project a reactive rally to follow.
- The third parallel is that both indicators warn of a future, more significant decline to take hold after that reactive rally has played out.
With expectations for a trio of subsequent lows – first on December 19/20th, second during the current week of January 13 – 17th, and third during the future week of [reserved for subscribers]…” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are adding corroboration to major peaks projected for late-Nov/early-Dec ’24 with the S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 peaking on November 25th. Those highs were set while fulfilling repeatedly-published cycles and major upside price targets – ushering in what was projected to be 3 – 6 month (or longer-lasting) peaks in late-Nov. ’24.
January 10/13th triggered a pair of revealing signals in multiple indicators – casting shadows ahead and project sharper declines in February/March ’25… and potentially beyond. The recent low should trigger a multi-week rally while projecting a future sell-off to take hold after that (2 – 3 week) rebound.
The 17-Year Cycle remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities. In line with that, the DJIA is already revealing parallels to late-2007/early-2008. Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying the next likely time frame when a future sharp sell-off is likely… in February/March ‘25 (see publications for details).
How Do November 25th Highs Corroborate Outlook for 2025 Sell-off?
How Would Late-Jan/Early-Feb High Reinforce 1Q ‘25 Outlook?
What Do Weekly Trend & 4-Shadow Signals Bode for February/March ‘25?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.