Stocks on Track for Mid-January Low & Multi-Week Rally; Portend Feb ’25 Sell-off.
01/11/25 – “Stock indexes peaked on Jan 6th, precisely fulfilling expectations stemming from their intermediate cycle low on Dec 19th. That was/is projected to spur another sharp sell-off that should initially spike lower in the coming week (on PPI or CPI data?). The DJIA, S+P 500 & Russell 2000 turned their weekly trends down, corroborating the outlook for an initial spike low in the coming week (as part of a larger overall decline)…
Stock indexes reversed lower after bouncing precisely into January 6th, fulfilling upside price AND timing projections in the DJTA, Russell 2000 and S+P Midcap 400. The DJIA, S+P 500 NQ-100 had already completed their rebounds on Dec. 26th and set lower highs on January 6th.
That was the ideal time for a secondary high and ushered in the second Danger Zone since the late-November ’24 cycle peak. The first was from early-December into December 19/20th. Initially, this Danger Zone stretches into/through the coming week even though these declines could last into… March/April ’25.
The January 6th peak also fulfilled the ideal time for a rebound peak based on the daily trends and intra-month trends in line with the open range of the month and the ideal time for an intra-month high. It was also the perfect time for a rebound peak based on the declining daily 21 Low MACs and the upside price targets for those indexes… all of which were hit on January 6th.
(The S+P Midcap was projected to spike a little higher into January 6th and test 3180 – 3200/IDX before a new sell-off. Corresponding upside targets and declining daily 21 Low MACs were at 43,100 – 43,300/DJIA, 2310 – 2320/QRH & 16,200 – 16,400/ DJTA… and all hit on Jan 6th).
The NQ-100 had related targets & resistance levels at 21,866 – 21,940/NQH that created the potential for an outside-week/2 Close Reversal Combo lower IF the NQ-100 dropped and closed below 21,516/NQH on Jan 10, 2025. That is exactly what it did with the DJIA, S+P 500, S+P 400 & Russell 2000 also generating outside-week/2 Close Reversals lower.
The January 6th high also reinforced he DJTA outlook… A 1 – 2 week low on Jan 16 – 21st would reinforce that.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are adding corroboration to sell signals triggered in late-Nov/early-Dec ’24 after the S+P Midcap, DJTA & Russell 2000 peaked on November 25th. Those highs were set in precise lockstep with repeatedly-published cycles and right at major upside price targets – setting what was projected to be 3 – 6 month (or longer-lasting) peaks in late-Nov. ’24. They are projected to undergo sharp declines in 1Q 2025… and potentially longer.
January 6th ushered in the time for another sell-off into mid-January – a likely precursor to future declines in February/March 2025. A low in mid-January would project cycle focus to mid-March ’25.
The 17-Year Cycle remains focused on 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities. In line with that, the DJIA is already revealing parallels to late-2007/early-2008. Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying the next likely time frames when a future sharp sell-off is likely… after a rebound from mid-January cycle lows (see publications for details).
How Do November 25th Highs Corroborate Outlook for 2025 Sell-off?
How Would Late-Jan/Early-Feb High Reinforce 1Q ‘25 Outlook?
Will Stock Indexes Fulfill Downside Objectives in March/April 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.