Stocks Poised for January 22/23rd Peaks; Reinforce Outlook Feb ‘25 Sell-off & March Meltdown.
01/22/25 – “Stock indexes are in the midst of a multi-week reactive rally after turning their weekly trends down on January 10th. They spiked lower last week, fulfilling the convergence of daily & weekly cycles, weekly trend signals, and related 4-Shadow signals that all projected a multi-week low during the week of January 13 – 17, ‘25.
On January 10, the DJIA, S+P 500 & Russell 2000 (as well as the DJ Composite Average that combines Industrial, Transport & Utility Averages) turned their weekly trends down – a sign of culmination on a near-term basis and confirmation on a broader basis.
The weekly trend reversal indicator usually times an initial multi-week low in the week that follows that signal trigger. (The DJTA did the exact same thing on December 20th – ushering in its own multi-week reactive rally.) That reinforced several other timing indicators – all focused on last week for the timing of an initial low and a likely reactive bounce.
From a broader wave perspective, there was an equally significant signal triggered on January 10/13.
That is when the DJIA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 exceeded the magnitudes of their late-July/early-August plunges – the largest declines of 2024.
As a result, those indexes (as well as the DJTA, which did the same thing in mid-December) triggered 4-Shadow Indicator signals on a 6 – 12-month basis.
Now & Later
In many ways, that indicator possesses parallels to the weekly trend indicator with three critical (similar) facets providing important portents:
- The most immediate portent is that both signals warn of an imminent (but only initial) low
- The second, correlating similarity is that both signals project a reactive rally to follow.
- The third parallel is that both indicators warn of a future, more significant decline to take hold after that reactive rally has played out.
The first describes the ‘now’. The second describes the ‘now/forward’. And the third describes the ‘later’. Recent action begs the question:
Is ‘Later’ Now?
The Evidence
Before examining the indicators arguing for a secondary peak, it is important to complete the assessment of the January 10/13th signals and initial lows…
Last week’s lows also fulfilled intra-month trend patterns & 4th wave of lesser degree support levels as the DJIA attacked its 1 – 2 month downside target near 41,800, a level that has been in focus since early-December:
12-14-24 – “The DJIA topped while fulfilling a ~4-week (25 – 28 day) low-low-low-(high) and a ~16-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression and was projected to see an initial drop into Dec 16 – 19th… as part of a multi-week drop to 41,600 – 41,800/DJIA.”
The DJIA fulfilled the early-Dec cycle highs, the initial drop into Dec 19th, and then – on January 13th – completed the overall multi-week drop to ~41,800/ DJIA – ushering in the time for a 1 – 3 week bounce.
Corroborating last week’s cycle and indicator lows, the NQ-100 bottomed right at monthly support and the S+P 500 fulfilled a pair of equidistant downside wave objectives, creating additional examples of wave symmetry within that overall correction.
In doing so, the S+P 500 completed similar declines on a multi-week and multi-day basis while testing and holding the July ’24 peak (resistance turned into support) and the Oct ’24 low (4th wave of lesser degree support).
It bottomed at those targets on January 13th, the precise time it completed successive equal declines on an intermediate (11 trading days each) and short-term (7 days each) basis… fulfilling wave symmetry on multiple levels of time AND price. That signaled the culmination of its latest sell-off.
The DJIA, S+P Midcap, Russell 2000 & DJTA also bottomed at their October ’24 lows – pivotal (initial) 2 – 3 month support – as the Midcap reached its 10% decline threshold. That spurred reactive rallies that are in their 2nd week and fulfilling daily cycle highs.
In the case of the DJIA, a rebound peak on January 21 – 24th would fulfill an ongoing ~7-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression (even though it has stretched a day beyond related daily cycles).
Meanwhile, the S+P Midcap is projecting a rebound peak on January 22/23rd that would fulfill a 58 – 59 day high (June 3) – high (July 31) – high (Sept 27) – high (Nov 25) – (high; Jan 22/23) Cycle Progression. That cycle was instrumental in projecting the October/November ’24 surge and a multi-month cycle peak for November 22/25th.
If a secondary peak is set during the current week, it would likely trigger a decline into the middle half of February ’25 – the time when the third successive intermediate low has been projected (#1 low on Dec 19/20th, #2 low on January 13 – 17th & #3 low on Feb 10 – 21st), in line with cycles & Cycle Progressions most apparent & synergistic in the DJTA…
Since its Sept ’22 low, the Transports have experienced three multi-month corrections of 11 – 12 weeks each. If the current decline matched those prior three, it would drop into Feb 10 – 21, 2025.
A low in Feb ’25 would perpetuate an ~8-month high (Feb ’23) – low (Oct ’23) – low (June ’24) – (low; Feb ’25) Cycle Progression. [The ~8-month & ~16-month cycles are some of the most common in a majority of markets.]
Not surprisingly, the DJTA has just tested its weekly 21 High MAC while rebounding 50% and attacking a multi-week range-trading target – all near 16,700.
In other indexes, this correction could stretch into March/April ‘25 – the convergence of multiple cycles & Cycle Progressions including an 18/19-month low-low-(??) Cycle Progression, a 2-Year Cycle (DJIA peaked in late-Nov ’22 and sold off into March ’23) and an annual cycle that timed intra-year lows in 2020, 2023 & 2024.
It would take daily closes below [reserved for subscribers] to give the first signs that a secondary top is taking hold.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are adding corroboration to major peaks projected for late-Nov/early-Dec ’24 – set while fulfilling repeatedly-published cycles and major upside price targets. That ushered in what was projected to be 3 – 6 month (or longer-lasting) peaks in late-Nov. ’24… and to ultimately lead to major 2025 plunges.
Subsequent highs – particularly in the S+P Midcap 400 – are expected around January 22nd and should prepare the way for sharper declines in February ’25, a possible March Meltdown… and confirmation of a broader stock market shift. That is in sync with weekly trend and multi-month 4-Shadow signals triggered on January 10/13th.
The 17-Year Cycle projected 4Q 2024 as the most likely time for a major peak in equities – and 2025 as the time for the next major decline. In line with that, the DJIA is already revealing parallels to late-2007/early-2008. Cycles and timing indicators are already identifying the next likely time frame when a future sharp sell-off is likely… in February/March ‘25 (see publications for details).
Will January 22/23rd (Divergent) Highs Reinforce Outlook for ‘March Meltdown’?
How Would Late-Jan/Early-Feb Peak Reinforce 1Q ‘25 Bearish Outlook?
What Do Weekly Trend & 4-Shadow Signals Bode for February/March ‘25?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.