Dollar, Euro & Yen Fulfilling Cycles
07/12/17 Weekly Re-Lay Alert:
“The 2017 Midpoint (mid-June–mid-July period) has ushered in several dramatic reversals, validating expectations for the second half of 2017. One of those reversals took hold in cryptocurrency, peaking in precise lockstep with daily & weekly cycles that projected a multi-month top for June 5–11, 2017. They underwent a 30-day decline, setting an initial low at the midpoint of that drop.
In doing so, Ethereum surrendered over 55% of its peak value (dropping from ~414 to ~183 in a month) as Bitcoin lost about 30%. More downside is still expected, once a brief intervening bounce has played out, with focus on July 26/27th for the next multi-week low.
July 2017 represents a 7-Year Cycle in Bitcoin as well, dating back to the launching of the Mt. Gox exchange in July 2010. In cyclic congruity, the former CEO Mark Karpeles is just now going on trial on charges related to Mt. Gox’ bankruptcy.
Mt. Gox’ demise was precipitated at the precise mid-point of that 7-Year Cycle (in Jan/Feb. 2014) that timed the freeze of all Bitcoin withdrawals, exacerbating multiple problems experienced in 2013. During the Feb./Mar. 2014 period, Bitcoin lost over a third of its value – similar to current losses. July/August 2017 remains a primary focal point…
The Dollar Index is consolidating after dropping into mid-year & completing a ~180-degree/6-month decline from its early-Jan. peak. It neutralized its daily downtrend multiple times but needs a daily close above 96.08/DXU to reverse that trend to up.
Until that occurs, the Dollar Index runs the risk of a spike back to its recent low. It would need to close below 95.38/DXU to validate that scenario.
An intermediate low is expected in this time frame (July 3–14th) – the latest phase of a ~2-month/8–9 week high-low-low-low Cycle Progression. Narrowing that down slightly, the Dollar created an intervening ~30-degree/~4-week high (Mar. 9–14)–high (Apr. 9–14)–high (May 9–14)–low (June 9–14) Cycle Progression that portends a low on July 9–14th.
(The next phase of the 8–9 week cycle – and two phases of the ~4-week cycle – would coincide with the early-Sept. 35–36 week cycle when a rebound peak is expected.) A low in this current time frame would also fulfill the weekly HLS.
The Euro did spike to new highs and attacked its Intra-month PLLR (1.1539/ECU), which is also a 1–2 month LLHprojection. While doing this, the Euro fulfilled a similar (to the Dollar) ~2-month/8–9 week low-high-high-high Cycle Progression.
In addition, the Euro reversed its monthly trend up on June 30th, setting the stage for an initial peak (ideally by mid-July) and 1–3 month pullback – the type of reactive move that usually follows this signal.
The Yen spiked lower, fulfilling its June 16th outside-week/2 Close Reversal sell signal and intermediate cycles that projected a low on July 10–14th (fulfilling a 9-week high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression). It has twice neutralized its daily downtrend and needs a daily close above .8881/JYU to reverse that trend up and signal a multi-week low.”
Dollar, Euro & Yen validating July 10–14th cycles… setting stage for decisive period on July 17–31st.
Bitcoin & Ethereum remain on track for overall decline into late-July – with primary downside targets of ~1,900/Bitcoin & ~150/Ethereum – since perfectly fulfilling intermediate cycle high (June 5–11th) and 6–12 month upside price targets (2940–3150/Bitcoin & ~400/Ethereum) at that time. Action of June & early-July is reinforcing longer-term outlook & future cycles.
July 2017 holds important cycle application to Bitcoin (7-Year Cycle from Mt Gox, etc.)… and is spurring new selling in cryptocurrency… while also honing optimum time for next (future) buying opportunity.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.