Oil Markets Reach Initial Objectives; New Rally into Mid-May Likely
Oil Markets Reach Initial Objectives; New Rally into Mid-May Likely.
04/28/18 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil are fulfilling expectations for a rally into late-April. The greatest synergy of cycles arrived on April 26 and timed the highest level in Heating Oil. Crude & Unleaded Gas peaked earlier. While this fulfills the upside objective for April, it has not yet shown signs of a top or a reversal lower.
At the very least, it would take a daily close below 66.37/CLM to signal an initial reversal lower. Even if a 1 – 2 week high takes hold, it could still be exceeded – particularly in Unleaded Gas – in mid-to-late-May, the latest phase of a ~16-week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
That is significant since it is the mid-point of the ~7-month low-low-high Cycle Progression that projected the surge from mid-2017 into late-Jan. 2018. A high around mid-May would reinforce the monthly & yearly cycles that converge in 3Q 2018 – the next phase of that 15 – 16 week cycle.
Crude has a similar 15 – 16 week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression converging on May 7 – 18. IF fulfilled, that would project a subsequent high 15 – 16 weeks later, in late-Aug. ’18, reinforcing cycles discussed in the April 2018 INSIIDE Track.
If this complex is going to set higher highs in ~mid-May, it could see a quick pullback in the interim. Crude has initial (3 – 5 day) support at 66.37 – 66.54/CLM that could help hone where and when a future high would be expected. Secondary support is at 65.54 – 65.69/CLM.
A low in early-May would also reinforce an uncanny 8 – 9 week (~2-month) low-low cycle that has timed six consecutive lows since June 2017, most recently timing the early-April low. The next phase comes into play in early-June 2018.”
Energy markets remain on track for overall advance into mid-May. An intervening pullback into early-May could corroborate. Energy relationship to overall equity market remains in force and is corroborating daily cycle highs & lows in stock indexes. See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.